Author: handicapwizard

Both the Grey and Turf programs had good results yesterday at Saratoga and Gulfstream. In the 9th race at Saratoga yesterday, a $62.5K optional claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf, the Turf Program revealed some interesting data with the #1 horse, Tidal Wave, who was in post four. As the third selection with theoretical odds of 8-1, Tidal Forces projected strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 41.7% and 44.4%. The horse also had a COMP of 27.8%, indicating that the horse projected with almost 2-1 strength on a component level in the simulation. The program revealed strength in the horse on a pure data level that was not observable in relating his final speed or win percentage data to the other horses. With that value, Tidal Wave was not a candidate for win but a strong candidate for place as the horse with the second strongest COMP in the field. In the race, Tidal Wave with Javier Castellano aboard made a nice move to the outside around the far turn to give himself running room and then accelerated down the stretch into second place before the wire, edging out the favorite, #8 Irish Aces at 1-1, who finished 3rd. Tidal Forces paid $19.80 for the place. The race illustrates how good things can happen when having faith in the program’s calculations.

The Turf program had the winner with its first selection of #5 Twirling Queen in race 9 at Saratoga—the $150K Corononation Stakes—which was run at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year-old fillies. Twirling Queen had a total win probability of 40.63%, translating to theoretical odds of 7-5 compared to final odds of 7-2. The horse projected first in final speed with a 54.6% win estimate (4-5 odds equivalent) and had the highest E1 and E2 win estimates of 100% and 100%, suiting the 5 1/2 f distance. The horse beat the favorite, #6 Ever So Sweet at 2-1, who led early on past the half-mile pole but then faded around the far turn.

The Grey program had a nice result in the 9th race at Gulfstream today, a $16K claiming race off the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. #8 Platinum Rocker was the first selection with a total win probability of 27.09% (5-2 odds equivalent) compared to final odds of 4-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a 50.9% win estimate (1-1 odds equivalent) while having slightly higher risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 11.54%. In the race, Platinum Rocker led from start to finish, beating two favorites in #10 Bellweather at 7-5 and #7 Miss Holly at 2-1. The finish was exciting with Platinum Rocker digging in against two challengers with less than a length lead for the last sixteenth of the race. Platinum Rocker paid $10.40 for the win.

There was a good opportunity with the Turf Program in race 3 at Saratoga today, a $100K maiden race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. The program had as its first selection #1a Storm Ready at 4-1 (2-1 theoretical odds) while its second selection was #8 Inherent Promise at 10-1 compared to having theoretical odds of about 5-2. Projecting second in final speed with a 40.5% win estimate (7-5 equivalent), a 53.9% COMP and a 16.3% win percentage (6-1 equivalent), Inherent Promise was a strong candidate for a win or place wager. In the race, Inherent Promise saved ground by staying on the one path on the back stretch in sixth position until the far turn when the horse gained ground and then found clear running room along the rail. The horse sped up to take second before finishing a length back of the winner, #7 Clever Mischief at 5-1, who was a foreign horse. Inherent Promise paid $10.00 for the place.

The program got off to a good start in the opening at Saratoga today, a $20K claiming race at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt. The first selection was #7 Empty Tomb at 6-1, who had a total win probability of 25.77% or theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projected first in final speed with a 44.7% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 18.7%. In the race, Empty Tomb broke to the lead and went wire to wire, beating the two favorites, #6 Accidental Hero at 5-2 and #8 Rocco Strong at 3-1. Empty Tomb paid $15.00 for the win. This was a perfect setup with the program with the 1st selection being an overlay and winning.