In the finale at Hawthorne in race 9, a $33K allowance race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection of #4 Code Name at 5-1. The horse had a total win probability of 26.41%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-2. Code Name led from start to finish in the race, who was stalked and then challenged by #8 Man on the Attack at 9-1 around the far turn before that horse weakened to finish third.
The Turf Program had the winner with its first selection of #4 Trikari in race 6 at Belmont at the Big A today, the G1 $750K Belmont Derby, which was run at 1 3/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. Trikari had a total win probability of 39.17%, translating into theoretical odds of 8-5 versus final odds of 5-1. Trikari beat the two favorites, #1 Legend of Time at 3-2, and #5 Endlessly at 8-5. Trikari paid $12.40 for the win.
The program had a good result in the 4th race today at Gulfstream, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-old fillies. The first two selections were #1 Smart Spending at 2-1 and #8 She Fled the Scene at 2-1. This was the order of the exacta, with the $2 exacta paying $23.
The program had a nice win in the 5th at Belmont at the Big A, a $35K optional claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #6 Call Her Bluff with a total win probability of 30.95%, converting to theoretical odds of about 2-1. Her final odds were 5-1. Call Her Bluff projected first in final speed with a 54.4% win estimate (4-5 odds strength) and had the highest LP in the field at 48.5%. Call Her Bluff took the lead on the inside coming out of the far turn and never looked back, winning by four lengths over #1 Just Music at 3-1.
The program had good results today at Parx, including having winners with its first selections in the 2nd #4 Pontiffany), 3rd (#3 Summersattheshore), 4th (#2 Cloudytimes), 7th (#4 Big Dreamer) and 10th races (#4 Teewinot Pass). The first four were “chalk” winners at 5-2 odds or less, but the horse that won in the 10th in #Teewinot Pass was 9-1 compared to theoretical odds of 7-2. This was one time where the horse’s risk actually worked in his favor rather than against him. Teewinot Pass had a SPD win estimate of 32.3% (about 2-1 equivalent) and also a COMP of 45.5%, indicating the horse had about 1-1 strength against the other horses in terms of their speed components in the aggregate. However, Teewinot Pass had a CV value of 20.99%, which is high, as well as a low win percentage of only 3.6%. In the race, the horse fortunately ran to his maximum potential and put away the favorite, #2 Mucho Macho Eddie at 8-5. For the Parx card, the program had winners with its first selection in five out of eight non-maiden races for $5.60, $4.60, $3.00, $5.40 and $20.00. Its ROI was 141% (($38.6-$16)/$16).
Race 2
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Race 7
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