Author: handicapwizard

The Turf Program saw a predictable result in the 10th at Belmont at the Big A today, a $150K graded stakes race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies. The program’s first selection was #3 Macanga with theoretical odds of 3-1 versus final odds of 2-1. The horse had a 23.52% total win probability with high E1 and E2 win estimates. The fourth selection and favorite was #9 Oversubscribed with theoretical odds of 6-1 compared to final odds of 1-1. The reason for Oversubscribed being a heavy underlay was that it had put up a high LP figure in its most recent race (106), translating into a LP win estimate of 65.4% in the simulation. This superior value, which triggered the FIT2 checkmark, converts into odds of 3-5, which is below the odds Oversubscribed went off at. In the race, Oversubscribed did not disappoint, where he flew down the stretch upon hitting the quarter mile pole to make up a good ten lengths against Macanga to get the win. Macanga had been a solid choice as well, who nearly held on but had to settle for third.

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In one of the best results all year, the program had the exacta order correct with its first two selections in the 6th race at Guflstream, a $8K claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares. The first two selections were #6 Lady Monique at 8-1 and #5 Real Mikey at 10-1. Real Mikey led much of the way until Lady Monique surged from the back coming around the far turn and passed Real Mikey before the wire. Lady Monique had projected strong late speed with a LP value of 58.2.%. The $1 exacta paid $81.50.

The program had a good result today in the 4th at Belmont at the Big A, a $50k allowance race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The first two selections in #1 Certified Loverboy at 6-5 and #3 Storming Chrome at 7-2 were the exacta horses in the same order. The $2 exacta paid $18.80.

The program had the superfecta order correct in the 3rd race at Belmont at the Big A, a $45K claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years old and up, with its selections of #6 Khali Magic at 2-5, #3 Cinderella’s Curse at 2-1, #5 Racing Colors at 11-1 and #4 Krystalheir at 9-1. While this was a good result, the $0.10 superfecta paid only $0.51 with five horses in the field.

Having had some race days cancelled recently due to the extreme heat in South Florida, Gulfstream was back in action today. In race 7, an $8K optional claiming race at 5f, the program had a nice result with its 1st selection of #3 Truth and Honesty, who at 7-2 won over #1 Raka Raka Cruz, which was the third selection at 3-1. Truth and Honesty was valued at 7-2, which is exactly where he went off at. In the race, Raka Raka Cruz was cruising down the final stretch when he was caught by a surging Truth and Honesty at the wire in a photo finish. The race once again shows the accuracy of the odds of the program, with the favorite’s theoretical odds equaling his final odds. Truth and Honesty paid $9.60.