Author: handicapwizard

The program had the exacta horses in the finale at Parx today in race ten, a $25K optional claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for three-year-olds, though the order was reversed. The first selection was #7 Secured Landing with a total probability of 26.98%, translating into theoretical odds of 5-2 compared to final odds of 4-1. The second selection was #9 Prince Colton with a total win probability of 21.18%, equating to theoretical odds of 7-2 versus final odds of 6-5. Secured Landing projected 1st in SPD with a 40.2% win probability but also had a high Coefficient of Variance at 25.14%, because of a 51 final speed figure the horse recorded in its first race, which was much lower than the figures in his other two races. The pool discounted Secured Landing’s higher risk by assigning the horse higher odds. Prince Colton, on the other hand, had a low CV value of 6.39% while having a SPD win estimate of 29.9% (about 5-2 equivalent) and the highest win percentage of 23.7% (about 3-1). Prince Colton was undoubtedly made an underlay because of his win percentage. In the race, Prince Colton broke to the early lead while Secured Landing stalked from third position to the half mile pole. Secured Landing then accelerated around the far corner and dueled with Prince Colton down the stretch before coming up just short. The race illustrates how close the program is with its projections despite Secured Landing’s close second place finish.

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Thanks to a user pointing this race out, the Turf Program had a very nice result today in the 6th at Belmont at Aqueduct, a $62.5k optional claiming race at 1 3/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up. The first selection was #6 English Conqueror with a total win probability of 26.65%, translating into theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse went off at 11-1. In the race, #7 Beuys led for most of the race until English Conqueror found a lane in the center down the stretch and won a duel with Beuys by a nose. English Conqueror was a good choice in this situation because of his high SPD (40.3%), E1, E2 and COMP estimates along with having relatively low risk. The horse paid $24.60 for the win. The user that gave the tip on this race hit the exacta using the program that paid $132.60. To see the images in full-size, click on the image and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the full-resolution link in the center.

The Turf program had the exacta order reversed with its first and second selections of #2 Arzak at 7-1 and #8 Cogburn at 2-1 in the 9th race at Saratoga, the G1 $500K Jaipur Stakes at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year olds. Cogburn led from start to finish while Arzak was able to come up for second. With his win, Cogburn set a course record at 5.5 f. The $2 exacta paid $37.60.

In the 3rd race at Saratoga, a $62.5K optional claiming race at 6 1/2 f on the dirt for three-year olds, the program had another fairly good result with its 2nd and 3rd selections of #5 Subrogate and #4 Looms Boldly finishing 1st and 2nd at 9-2 and 15-1. The program had the theoretical odds at 9-2 and 7-1, making Looms Boldly a big overlay. The 1st selection, #6 Awesome Native, was the favorite with theoretical and final odds of 2-1 but finished fourth. The $2 exacta paid $108.00.

The Turf Program had one of the best results for the entire year in the 2nd race at Saratoga, an $80K optional claiming race at 1 mi. on the turf for filies. The first selection was #5 Buttercream Babe with a total win probability of 32.32%, converting to theoretical odds of 2-1 versus final odds of 9-1. Needless to say, Buttercream Babe was a heavy overlay as the first selection. In the race, the horse stalked from third after the opening quarter before finding a seam to the outside coming around the far turn when he launched ahead to the lead and then held on to the wire. Buttercream Babe paid $20.20 for the win. This race shows again the effectiveness of the Turf program, which uses only turf data in its calculations to provide a pure turf perspective of the horses for handicapping. Earlier in race 1, the program had another winner with its first selection of #General Partner with theoretical odds of 1-1, which matched the final odds.

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