The Handicap Wizard had an excellent result in the Florida Derby today at Gulfstream with its three top selections being the order of the tri-fecta (11/4/9). With #11 Forte going off at 1/5, the $0.50 trifecta paid $6.95. Based on the implied win probability in the payout, the program had about a 7% chance of getting this tri-fecta result, demonstrating its accuracy and strength of modeling.
Here are the projections for tomorrow’s $1 mil. Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream. The clear favorite is #11 Forte at 4/5 on the M/L, who is valued just above that price according the program with a total win probability of 47.08% (close to 1-1). According to his SPD projection of 56.8% (win probability) and adjusted Win Percentage (WP) of 57.3%, he is valued at 4/5. The only real contender according to the data is #4 Mage, who projects favorably in SPD at 27.9% (3-1 strength) and COMP at 30.9% (2-1). What detracts from Mage is his WP of just 4.3%, which is low (20-1 equivalent). Mage is lightly raced and does not have the race history that Forte has (2 versus 6 races). The selections are #11 Forte, #4 Mage and #9 Cyclone Mischief. To see the imagine in full-size, click on it and then on the encircled i on the bottom right. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.
As highlighted in the preview, #6 Kingsbarn went wire to wire to victory today in the Louisiana Derby. The program detected his speed potential in the both SPD and COMP metrics, with COMP being significant at 32.6%, indicating 2-1 strength in the horse. He went off a 9-2. Kingsbarn paid $11.
Here are the projections for tomorrow’s $1 mil. Louisiana Derby at the Fairground. #2 Instant Coffee is the favorite according to the M/L and the model’s projections but is pricey at 2-1 in view of his total win probability of only 17.66%. There appears to be value with #4 Sun Thunder at 5-1 on the M/L because of his SPD projection of 23.8%, which would make his fair value closer to 3-1 according to that metric. Another horse worth considering is #6 Kingsbarns at 6-1 because of his SPD projection of 15.5% (about fair value) and COMP value of 32.6%, (2-1 fair value) signalling strength in his components in the aggregate according to the simulation. Otherwise, the selections look expensive at their M/L prices.
Horseplayers saw a thrilling race at Oaklawn on Sat. on the sloppy track, with #7 Confidence Game (19-1) surprising in the upset, holding off a late charging #3 Red Route One (9-1), who had gone wide around the far turn and then met interference from the veering #10 Bourdon Bash from the the center of the track. Confidence Game won by under a length. One has to wonder whether Red Route One would have won without the interference, but there was no foul for Bourbon Bash who did not place. Confidence Game had early speed, as indicated by his E1 and E2 values of 36.6% and 36.8%, and had the third highest COMP value at 12.6% (8-1 fair value). Confidence Game would have been a risky play, as he needed to go the 1 1/16 mi. distance despite projecting poorly in LP with 0%. In the race, he was able to rate well enough to make and hold onto the lead down the stretch. Red Route One was highlighted in the analysis with his superior LP value of 46.1% and highest win percentage at 15.1%. For his LP value, Red Route One had the FIT2 checkmark, which is how the program marks legit contenders in races because of statistical superiority according to one or more metrics. Taking Red Route One would have put one in play for the exacta, but luck was still needed with Confidence Game as a long shot. The race is illustrative of how the high LP value (or any high values) of Red Route One translates to actual strength on the track, as seen in his late surge.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 