Author: handicapwizard

Today at Gulfstream is the $250K Holy Bull–a Kentucky Derby prep race–run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three year olds. According to the program’s projections, the race appears between #6 Legacy Isle, #4 Cyclone Isle and #8 Rocket Can, who all have total win probabilities in the low 20% range. Legacy Isle projects early speed with the highest win estimates for E1 and E2 at 69.8% and 40.5%. He is the class in the field with the highest win percentage of 23.27% after his win in the Mucho Macho Man stakes at GP in Jan. The second selection is #4 Cyclone Mischief, who has the second highest SPD in the field at 35.9% (about 2-1 in terms of odds) according to the simulation versus a Coefficient of Variance of 10.68%, indicating somewhat higher risk after the horse’s jump-up to a 99 Brisnet final speed figure in his last race. The third selection is #8 Rocket Can, who has the highest SPD estimate at 39.2% as well as the highest risk with a CV of 14.91%. In the final analysis, all of the horses are still fairly green and there is low data integrity for the race because the horses don’t have a lot of history. So the handicapper should take caution with this race and with the program’s results. That said, #4 Cyclone Mischief does appear to have the edge in speed, even with the second highest SPD projection at 35.9%, because he has lower risk than Rocket Can while also having the highest SPD value overall at 99, which he recorded his last time out in a $75K allowance race at Gulfstream on Jan 23. This may not be a good distance for Legacy Isle, who has an LP projection of 0% and showed himself to be tiring coming into the wire in his last race at 1 mi., when this race is one furlong farther. It’s understandable then Cyclone’s Mischief’s M/L is 2-1, which is in line with his SPD projection. On the other hand, Rocket Can has comparable speed, albeit with the higher risk, but also is trained by Bill Mott, who just won the $3 mil. Pegasus with Art Collector, whereas Romans has come up short a lot in the big races, not counting Shackleford in the Preakness.

On Saturday at Gulfstream is the $3 mil. Pegasus World Cup Invitational, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The race features #10 Cyberknife, runner-up in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile in Nov., #7 Skippinglongstockings, winner of the G3 Harlan’s Holiday on New Year’s Eve, #1 Proxy, winner of the G1 Clark at Churchill in December and #4 White Abbario, winner of last year’s Florida Derby. In line with his M/L of 5-2, the Handicap Wizard is favoring #10 Cyberknife as its first selection with a total probability of 28.19%. The horse projects 1st in final speed with a 40.9% win estimate while having low risk, reflected in its Coefficient of Variance of 4.67%. Cyberknife is also the class in the field with a 22.4% Win Percentage adjusted for stakes. The second selection is #4 White Abbario with a 14.4% total win probability versus a M/L of 10-1, making the horse an overlay. White Abbario projects second in final speed at 29.3% win probability, though is riskier than Cyberknife with a CV value of 8.68%. Third is #1 Proxy with a total win probability of 8.57%, though projects first in late speed with a LP estimate of 41.4%. In the final analysis, this race looks like Cyberknife’s to win, if he is able to maintain his recent top form. To see the page in full-resolution, click on the encircled “i” on the bottom right after clicking on the image. Then scroll down and click on the full-size link.

There was an excellent result for the Turf program at Gulfstream today, this time in the 8th, a $20K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for four-year olds. The program had the order of the exacta reversed, which had a huge payout because of the second selection, #6 Laker Mamba, winning at 21-1. #11 Exult was the first selection with a win probability of 21.21%. Laker Mamba was not too far behind at 17.68% win probability. What was notable among the metrics was Laker Mamba’s dominant E1 and E2 projections (52.1% and 32.2%) and high COMP value at 43.3%, where the horse was projecting at 6-5 in terms of the components in the simulation in the aggregate. The race went largely according to the projections, with Laker Mamba setting the pace with his speed, who by the quarter pole had built such a lead that he was able to sail home. Exult was the class in this race with a win percentage of 40.3%, who held true to his class by finishing second. The $2 exacta with 6,11 paid $237.80. This handicapper is kicking himself for this being the one that got away.

The Handicap Wizard had a good result today in the 6th race at Gulfstream, a $20K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares. The program had #5 American of Course as its first selection with a total win probability of 26.26% compared to final odds of 3-1. The handicapper should understand that the horse’s odds upon conversion from probability is nearly identical to the final odds, showing how accurate the program is that it can independently arrive at that market valuation. American of Course projected 1st in SPD at 33.3%, while having relatively low risk of 6.67% for the Coefficient of Variance. The horse had strong E1 and E2 estimate of 36.5% and 46.5%—well suited to the 7f distance—and also a strong COMP value of 40.7% (about 7-5 fair value in this metric). The odds favorite, #7 Invaluable, at 6-5 had a win probability of 17.23%, making him a considerable overlay. In the race, American of Course took the early lead and went on to win convincingly in the short field.