Author: handicapwizard

The Handicap Wizard had a good result today in the 8th race at Gulfstream, a $25K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The program’s first selection was #3 Therapist with a total win probability of 20.50% versus final odds of 7-2. At that price, the horse was slight underlay when its fair value was 4-1. The favorite was #6 On Thin Ice at 5-2, who had no statistical support for those odds. Therapist tied with #12 Battle Scars for having the highest SPD win projection at 35%, although Therapist’s risk was lower with a Coefficient of Variance of 4.85%. In the race, Therapist broke to the lead after coming five wide out of the far turn and then surged down the stretch to win by three lengths. Therapist paid $9 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in #5 Venti Valentine in the $100K Bayridge Stakes at Aqueduct today, run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year filles and mares. With a total win probability of 33.12%, Venti Valentine was priced roughly at fair value at 2-1, while the favorite, #6 Let Her Inspire U, was at 4-5. This race came down to Venti-Valentine’s class (35.3% WP) versus Let Her Inspire U’s speed (51% SPD), with Venti Valentine rallying down the stretch to win on the mud at Aqueduct.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in race 4 yesterday at Tampa, a $20K claiming race at 6 1/2f on the dirt for three year olds. Against two horses with lower odds and another with the same odds at 7/2, the program had #2 Hard Belle rated best with a total win probability of 27.4%. At that price the horse was a slight overlay. Hard Belle had the highest final speed estimate of 50% versus average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.28%. The horse also had the highest LP estimate at 66.2%, indicating dominant strength in late speed. Thanks to some very good jockeying down the stretch, the horse wove through traffic to win by a head. Everything that the program projected in Hard Belle’s top final and late speed you could see in this race.

The Handicapwizard Grey Version had the winner with its first selection, #6 Winter’s Ghost, in the 3rd race at Tampa, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The horse went off at 9-5, but there were indications in the data like with its SPD, LP and COMP estimates of 78.4%, 50.1% and 72.3% that the horse’s true value was some where between 2-5 and 1-1. With such dominating projections, Winter’s Ghost sailed to victory in easy fashion, winning by nine-lengths.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner in the one stakes races at Hawthorne today in the 5th, which was at 6 1/2f on the dirt for two years olds. The program’s first selection was #7 Looking for Bala at 1-1, who had a total win probability of 38.21%. In the race, the horse held on to win over #6 Fever Nation at 15-1.