Here are the selections for today’s $1 mil. G2 Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes at Kentucky Downs, using the PHW Turf program. #8 Gufo appears a little rich on at 7/5 on the M/L compared to a 26.57% total win probability. The second selection, #12 Highest Honors, has value at 12-1 on the M/L versus a 15.28% win probability (equating to a fair value around 6-1) but is risky with a CV of 14%. Generally, anything above 10% indicates higher than average risk. The handicapper might also find value in #7 Admission Office at 10-1 on the M/L because of the 20.9% COMP value relative to a 8.7% CV. Admission Office was the winner of the G3 Arlington Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. at the beginning of June and put up a 110 fig. in his second to last race at Belmont in July.
Here are the projections for today’s G1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three year olds. The race looks between Chad Brown Trained and undefeated #7 Jack Christopher and Bob Baffert trained #2 Taiba with Jack Christopher projecting best in terms of final speed because of his most recent start.
The Handicap Wizard turf program had a nice result yesterday in the 10th race at Belmont, the G1 Manhattan, Stakes, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and up. The program’s second selection was #7 Tribhuvan(FR), who had a total win probability of 17.36%. The horse’s fair value was around 5-1 compared to final odds of 19. The horse projected dominantly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 72.0% and 60.9%. Although the horse had a final speed estimate of only 1.7% due to having fallen out of form, the COMP value of 40.3% signaled about 6-5 strength for the horse on the component level in the aggregate according to the simulation. As the program predicted, Tribhuvan went to the lead and held on to win impressively by four lengths. The COMP was key because of the horse’s low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.58%. The horse paid $40.20 for the win. This handicapper did have Tribhuvan to show.
Today at Belmont Park is the third leg of the Triple Crown, the $1.5 mil. Belmont Stakes, which is run at 1 ½ mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features Kentucky Derby winner, Rich Strike, who did not run in the Preakness, Wood Memorial Winner, Mo Donegal, Peter Pan winner, We the People, and Kentucky Oaks runner-up, Nest. The Handicap Wizard sees this race close between Rich Strike, Creative Minister and Mo Donegal, who all have total win probabilities of 17%. #4 Rich Strike is slightly favored due to his 33% win percentage, but otherwise projects 4th in final speed at 12.0% while having higher than average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 10.3%. Second is #5 Creative Minister, who likely will be setting the pace in the race along with #2 Skippinglongstocking because of their strong E1 and E2 projections. Third is #6 Mo Donegal, who has the highest final speed estimate at 29.6% and the second highest LP projection at 25.7%. Fourth is #3 Nest with a total win probability of 13.8%, who has the second highest win percentage at almost 20%. The race ultimately sets up as a test between Rich Strike’s class versus Creative Minister’s speed and Mo Donegal’s late speed, though #1 We the People projects even stronger in LP with a 40% win estimate. The main question with Rich Strike, Mo Donegal and We the People is their higher than average risk. Each has had one good race, so the handicapper has to decide which horse is primed to turn in their best effort today while also having the stamina to go the 1 ½ mi. distance. That may be Rich Strike or Mo Donegal, who come in with more than a month’s rest after skipping the Preakness and have Keen Ice and Uncle Mo as their sires, respectively. On the other hand, We the People is the only horse in the field besides #7 Golden Glider who has a win at Belmont, which We the the People did impressively in the Peter Pan by 10 lengths. For that reason, We the People should be taken very seriously as a legit contender, even though he would be expensive at the 2-1 M/L price considering his low 6% win percentage, which is main reason the program does not rate the horse higher. The final selections are #4 Rich Strike, #5 Creative Minister, #6 Mo Donegal and #3 Nest.
One of the best habits to have as a handicapper is to be patient and wait for the right opportunities. One such opportunity came today in the 4th race at Pimlico, a $10K claming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares. The betting favorite was #4 Special Freedom at 9-5, who did not show anything spectacular statistically with a winning percentage of 22.6% and a final speed estimate of 26%. Both of those metrics would equate to around 3-1 in odds. The model favorite was #6 Dauntless Gal with a 23.83% total win probability, who was a slight underlay at 4-1. #5 My Super Sally at 11-1 was the third selection in the model, but had the highest final speed estimate at 26% along with the highest LP estimate at 82.3%. The latter was extraordinarily high and earned the horse a FIT2 checkmark. At 11-1 My Super Sally had a lot of value with an expected ROI value of 136%, when anything above 100% is generally good. In the race, My Super Sally flew down the stretch to catch the leader, #7 Moon Biz, at the wire. My Super Sally paid $25 for the win, while the exacta (5,7), which were the models’ 2nd and 3rd selections, paid $100.80. The race underscores the value of the Handicap Wizard approach, which identified My Super Sally’s superior speed metrics in SPD and LP and allowed the bettor to realize substantial value on a horse that had 4-1 overall strength, including 2-5 late speed, but was priced at 11-1. The race illustrates how one can truly win in horse racing with proper evaluation and by having good discernment of value.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 