Author: handicapwizard

Here’s the replay of the Whitmore Stakes at Oaklawn from Sat., Mar. 19

The Handicapwizard had a good result today in the $200K Whitmore Stakes at Oaklawn, run at 6f on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The program’s first selection, Bob’s Edge, with a total win probability of 19.49% versus final odds of 5-2, won in exciting fashion with a late move in the center of the track, besting #7 Tulane Tryst who also came up late. Bob’s Edge paid $7.60 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard had a nice result today in the 9th race at Oaklawn, a $20K claiming race for fillies and mares three-years old and up. #8 Uncle Mo’s Cat was the first selection with a total win probability of 24.7% versus final odds of 9-5. The horse projected 1st in final speed at 53.7% and had relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.7%. The progam’s second selection was #5 Alpine Ghost at 39-1 with a total win probability of 14.61%. The third selection was #10 Mo Betta at 9-1 with a total win probability of 13.03%, thanks to having the highest winning percentage in the field at 24.4%. As it turned out, Uncle Mo’s Cat was a winner by two lengths over #10 Mo Better, who came up along the rail for 2nd to beat #1 Strike at Beat at 7-2. Uncle Mo’s Cat paid $5.60 to win, while a $1 ex. box with 8, 5, 10 paid $24.80. This race shows the value of the Handicap Wizard’s approach of using both simulation and historical performance, that Mo Better’s high winning percentage factored heavily to make it a 3rd selection, even though the horse had only a 3.9% win probability according to the final speed projection in the simulation.

Today at Tampa Bay is the $400K G2 Tampa Bay Derby, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features Classic Causeway, winner of the Sam F. Davis at Tampa in mid February, Shipsensational, who was the runner-up in the Sam F. Davis and before that won a couple graded races at Belmont last fall, including the $250K Sleepy Hollow over 1 mi. There is also Major General, winner of the Iroquis at Churchill last September and Money Supply, who broke his maiden in one start at Tampa in February. The Handicapwizard is favoring #4 Classic Causeway with a total win probability of 24.62%, which would make him an overlay at 8-5 on M/L. Nevertheless, there are things to like about this horse, including projecting strongly in E1 and E2 as well as having the second highest final speed estimate at 34.4% and the highest COMP value at 48.9%, when no one else is even close. At the same time, he has low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4.29%. Next is #9 Shipsensational, who has a total win probability of 23.54% versus 5-1 on the M/L, while projecting 1^st in final speed at 48.7%. However, he is riskier with a CV value of 10.39% and took a step back in form with his last start. Third is #5 Giant Game with a total win probability of 14.21%, who would be undervalued compared to 10-1 on the M/L. Giant Game projects similarly to Classic Causeway in E1 and E2 and has the second highest win percentage at 18.8%. The horse turned in a disappointing effect in his last start in the Holy Bull, when he finished eighth by 24 lengths. However, it has come to light since that race that the horse suffered a throat problem in a displaced palate, which has since been corrected. In his two most recent works, Giant Game ran 5f in 0:59, showing that the horse has been training consistently well. Tied for fourth in the selections are #7 Strike Hard with a 9.14% total win probability and #8 Major General at 9.05%. Major General has the highest win percentage in the field at 19.2% due to his win in the Iroquis at Churchill. In the final analysis, if he runs like he did in the Sam. F. Davis by getting out to the lead and holding it, this race is Classic Causeway’s to win. It will be interesting to see whether Shipsensational will be more forwardly placed to challenge Classic Causeway, who did not get the best trip in the Sam F. Davis, getting stuck in traffic around the far turn, before having to make a five wide move down the stretch to come up for second. Shipsensational does project first in LP at 39.3% win probability, so it’s a matter of whether he can use that late energy earlier on to get into a closer stalking position against Classic Causeway. If Giant Game’s throat problem was temporary, he may be the overlooked horse in this race, because he had been progressing nicely before his regression in the Holy Bull. Regarding Major General, the horse has not been training stellar and for that reason should not be a factor in this race that will be all about pace. On the other hand, Happy Boy Rocket did turn in a nice effort in his maiden win at Gulfstream at the end of January and may pose a challenge to the expected leaders down the stretch. The final selections are Classic Causeway 1^st, Shipsensational 2^nd, Giant Game 3^rd and Strike Hard 4^th.

The Handicapwizard had good results today in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and in the Gotham at Aqueduct. In the FOY the program’s first selection, Simplication, won at 5-2. And in the Gotham, the program’s 1st selection, Dean’s List, came in second, while its 3rd selection, Morello, came in 1st. Scroll down to see the previews of those races. Another notable result was with the PHW Turf program in the 5th race at Santa Anita, the $200K G2 Bueno Vista, where the program predicted the tri-fecta correctly with its top three selections in #5 Leggs Gallore, #10 Going to Vegas and #1 Closing Remarks. The $0.50 trifecta paid $31.75.