Author: handicapwizard

Today at Keeneland is the $1 mil. G1 Blue Grass Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race has a field of twelve horses and features Smile Happy, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchhill in Nov. and runner up in the Risen Star at Oaklawn, and Ethereal Rd., who came in second in the Rebel at Oaklawn behind Un Ojo. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #10 Smile Happy in this race with a total win probability of 24.58%, who projects 1^st in final speed at 42.6% and has the highest win percentage at 23.6%. Second is #4 Zandon with a 14.73% total win probability. While projecting speed across E1, E2 and LP, including ranking second in LP with 28.4% win probability, Zandon is expensive at 5-2 on the money line, when the horse’s fair value is closer to 5-1. Third is #9 Rattle N Roll with a 11.27% total win probability, who projects 2^nd in final speed at 15.8%. Fourth is #8 Ethereal Rd. with 11.26% total win probability. Ethereal Rd. projects first in LP at 45.1% and has value at 20-1 on the morning line. In the final analysis, Smile Happy is in the driver’s seat as being both the class and projecting best in terms of final speed, but there is a reason for concern because of his mediocre COMP value at 19%, indicating that his speed components in the aggregate are not particularly strong compared to the other horses. On that basis, his fair value is in the 4-1 range. In fact, the second selection, Zandon, projects first in COMP at 22.8% and #6 Emmanuel is 2nd at 19.2%, who ranks third on the money line. Emmanuel disappointed in his last race in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, where he finished 4^th, and otherwise has a low win percentage at only 4.7%. Considering that none of the horses are projecting higher than 22% in COMP, I believe this race is wide open, where not only the favorite Smile Happy is vulnerable, but also long shots like #2 Fenwick and #5 Volcanic have chances to hit the board and possibly win. The final selections are #10 Smile Happy, #4 Zandon, #9 Rattle N Roll and #8 Ethereal Rd.

Here are the program’s projections for today’s $1.25 mil. Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds.

Today at Gulfstream is the $1,000,000 G1 Florida Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features several graded stakes winners, including Simplification, who won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, Classic Causeway, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and Sam F. Davis, and White Abbario, winner of the Holy Bull at Gulfstream in Feb. This appears to be an open and evenly matched race, with none of the horses receiving win probabilities higher than 17%. The program’s first selection is #5 Pappacap, who is in this position not because of what the horse has done recently but more because of what it has done in the past. Pappacap placed second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Keenland last Nov, which was a $2 mil race, explaining why the horse has the second highest win percentage at 21.3%. However, Pappacap disappointed most recently with an 8^th place finish in the Risen Star in Feb. after getting 3^rd in the LeComte in Jan. The model is also factoring in his strong projections in E1 and E2 with estimates of 40.6% and 39.5%. On the other hand, the horse projects little or nothing in final speed and in LP against the field, which seems a problem for the distance of this race at 1 1/8 mi. Pappacap’s first selection status is due more to data anomalies than to any actual strength around final speed and recent winning form, so the horse is effectively a toss. The second selection is #3 Simplification with a total win probability of 15.56% versus 5-2 on the M/L, who would be expensive at that price. Simplification projects first in SPD at 32.2% compared to higher than average risk with a 11.3% Coefficient of Variance. Simplification has hit the board in his last five out of six starts. Third is #7 White Abarrio with a total win probability of 15.26% versus 3-1 on the M/L. White Abarrio projects decently across E1, E2 and LP and has the highest COMP value in the field at 29.5%, indicating strength in numbers according to the simulation. Fourth is #2 Classic Causeway with a 11.78% total win probability, who has the highest WP in the field at 22.4% after winning the Tampa Bay Derby and Sam F. Davis. In the final analysis, the order of the selections appears more legit after excluding Pappacap. At the 1 1/8 mi. distance late speed should factor in this race, favoring White Abarrio and new shooter, #6 Charge It, who projects 1^st in LP at 40.1% after posting a 107 LP in his maiden win in his second start in Feb. It’s worth noting that Classic Causeway and White Abarrio recorded the fastest times over 1 1/16 mi. at 1:42, while Charge It had a time of 1:35 for 1 mile. Throwing out #5 Pappacap, the selections are #3 Simplification, #7 White Abarrio, #2 Classic Causeway and #6 Charge it.        

The Handicapwizard had an excellent result today in the 9th race at Gulfstream, a $16K allowance race at 1m 70y for four-year olds. The program had the correct order of the tri- and super-fectas with #9 Lamplighter Jack at 7-2, #3 Conglomerate at 4-1, #1 Yamato at 3-2 and #4 Kitten’s Spa at 7-2. The $0.50 trifecta paid $42.95 while the $.10 superfecta paid $23.66.

Today there was a good example at Parx of a race where a horse was presented as a first selection that was also an underlay—an ideal situation for a handicapper. It was a $35K optional claiming race, run at 7f on the dirt for three-year olds filies and mares. The first selection was #1 Philadelphia Belle with a total win probability of 32.87% versus final odds of 3-1. The horse projected first in final speed at 41.2% win probability relative to a CV value of 11.46% (so the horse had a little higher than average risk), while projecting strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 74.8% and 64.7%, for which it earned a FIT2 checkmark. According to those metrics, the horse had a fair value of less than 1 for a 7f race. The horse’s COMP value was also high at 62.0% win probability, again translating to a fair value of less than 1 in odds. As an underlay, the horse had a positive expected Return on Investment of 31%. Though not being extraordinarily high it was completely fine as as a profitable wage selection. In the race, Philadelphia Belle broke well from the gate to take an early lead and coasted the rest of the way, winning by a length in the end over the #7 Precious at 5-2, who had the highest win percentage in the field at 29.4%. Philadelphia Belle paid $8 for the win. The race illustrates the value of the Handicapwizard as a selection and valuation tool. In reality it does not often happen that the first selection will be offered as an underlay, as favorites tend to be overbet by the public. Here the pool overvalued the #2 horse, Peyton Elizabeth at 7-5, who finished third.