Author: handicapwizard

Today at Aqueduct is the $300K Gotham at Aqueduct, run at 1 mile on the dirt for three year olds. The race features only two graded stakes winners and otherwise is a very green field. The odds favorite is Morello at 3-1 on the M/L, who comes in undefeated in two starts after winning the $100K Jimmy Winkfield over 7f at Aqueduct on Feb. 6. The other stakes winner is Rockefeller, winner of the G3 Nashua at Belmont over 1 mi. in early November and was runner up to Newgrange in the Sham at Santa Anita in January. The Handicapwizard is favoring #5 Dean’s List with a total win probability of 25.96% compared to 7-2 on the M/L, where is fair value is about 3-1. The horse will undoubtedly be the pace in the race with strong E1 and E2 projections of 69.9% and 37.2% in the simulation, while ranking second in SPD at 31.2% win probability. The horse also has a high COMP value of 55.1% compared to a low risk or Coefficient of Variance of only 2.98%. Second is #4 Fromanothamutha at 18.02% total win probability. The horse projects first in final speed at 39.5% while having the top final speed figure in the field at 105, which he recorded in breaking his maiden in his last start over 7f at Aqueduct in Jan. He is also riskier with a Coefficient of Variance of 13.62%. Third is Morello with a 10.12% win probability but has the highest winning person, adjusted for stakes, at 18.4% following his win in the Jimmy Winfield. Fourth is Rockefeller with a 9.98% total win probability. In the final analysis, I think that the Handicap Wizard is right with its top four selections and the final order will be a combination of these. After needing five races to find his form, I don’t see a reason to doubt Fromanothamutha’s ability to win the Gotham based on his maiden winning performance in mid January. The horse appears to be a true Kentucky Derby contender, where his 6-1 price on the M/L would be a gift. He will have to come off the pace to defeat Dean’s List, but I believe will prevail down the stretch. Morello and Rockefeller project similarly as the weakest of the four. The selections are #5 Dean’s List, #4 Fromanothamutha, #9 Morello and #10 Rockefeller. I personally see it going Fromanothamutha 1st., #5 Dean’s List 2nd., #10 Rockefeller, 3rd. and #9 Morello 4th.

      

On Saturday at Gulfstream s the $400K G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three year-olds. The field features #2 Simplification, the runner-up in the Holy Bull to White Abbarrio, #6 Rattle N Roll, who was the Breeders Futurity winner last Oct. at Keeneland, and #8 Emmanuel, who is undefeated in two starts. With thirteen horses running and none of them receiving a win probability higher than 14% (around 6-1 odds equivalent), the Fountain of Youth looks to be a competitive race. The Handicapwizard is favoring Simplification, who has a total win probability of 14.07% versus the M/L of 5-2, which would be too short of a price for this horse. Simplication projects 1^st in final speed at 31.7% win probability according to the simulation, though the horse does have some risk with a Coefficient of Variance 12.65%. Generally, any CV value above 10% is on the riskier side. After a poor start in the Holy Bull, Simplification rallied to get 2^nd behind White Abarrio, who went wire to wire in that race. Next is #5 Dean Delivers with a total win probability of 13.66%, who came in 2^nd in the Swale over 7 furlongs at Gulfstream in early Feb. The horse is undervalued at 15-1 on the M/L, even though the horse projects 2^nd in final speed at 29.6% win probability and has lower risk than Simplification with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.2%. Third is #10 Giant Game with a total win probability of 13.07%, who is a value play at 15-1 on the M/L. Giant Game has the highest winning percentage in the field at 19.8%, but finished a distant 8^th in his last start in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. On the flip side, the horse appears to be training well after running 5 furlongs in 59 seconds at Gulfstream on Feb. 29. The horse has the 2^nd highest overall final speed figure in the field at 99, which he recorded while coming in 3^rd in the G1 BC Juvenile at Del Mar in early Nov. Keep in mind that Giant Game was purchased for $500K, the highest amount of any of the horses in the field, and is a son of Giant’s Causeway, who was a dominant turf horse in England during his career. The fourth selection is #8 Emmanuel with an 11.64% total win probability. As mentioned, Emmanuel is undefeated in two starts and projects 1^st in LP at 54.8% win probability, which justifies the horse’s 3-1 price on the M/L. In the final analysis, it does not appear that there will be much pace in this race, with none of the horses having dominant early speed. This should bode well for # 8 Emmanuel as well as #6 Rattle N Roll and #3 Howling Time. Rattle and Roll has done nothing wrong in his last two starts, winning a $120K maiden claiming race two back and the Breeders Futurity last time out at Churchhill, when he made a four wide move right on cue around the far turn and went on to win by four lengths. Son of Not This Time, Howling Time may be a sleeper in this race, who despite disappointing in the Holy Bull with a 5^th place finish, won the S200K Street Sense at 1 1/16 mi. as a two-year old last Halloween at Churchill. The program selections are #2 Simplication, #5 Dean Delivers, #10 Giant Game, and #8 Emmanuel. Personally, I see this race being close between Simplication, Emmanuel and Rattle N Roll, where I like Rattle N Roll the best out of the three because of his tactical speed and the way the horse responded around the far turn in the Breeders Futurity. The horse has also trained well, recording a time of 0:58 over 5f on Feb. 26 at Gulfstream. Emmanuel to me seems untested, benefiting from a slow pace in his last race, when he’s in deeper waters here in the Fountain of Youth. If Simplification gets out to an early lead, he will be tough to beat in this spot. It’s interesting that Dean Delivers is the model’s second selection, but has not gone farther than 7f.

Today at Oaklawn is the $1 mil. G2 Rebel Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features morning line favorite Newgrange at 9/5, who is undefeated in three races after winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Jan. 29 with a time of 1:45 and 4. The only other graded stakes winners are Kavod in post one, who won the $150K Advent over 6f at the beginning of December and Dash Attack, winner of the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on Jan. 1 but who finished a distant 5^th in the Southwest. The Handicapwizard is favoring #2 Newgrange in this race, who appears to be a typical classic horse. In the simulation projections, he was the only horse that showed strength over E1, E2 and LP, while indicating first in final speed with a 42.8% win probability and first in winning percentage at 33.1%. Versus a total win probability of 29.97%, Newgrange is fairly valued at 9/5 on the M/L. Next is #9 Barber Road with a total win probability of 17.1% versus a 9/2 M/L, again fairly valued. Barber Road projects 2^nd in final speed at 33.1%, but is more than twice as risky as Newgrange with a Coefficient of Variance of 12.21%. Third is #1 Kavod, who will be on the pace today with dominant projections in E1 and E2 of 47.5% and 39.5%. But the horse faltered down the stretch in his last race in the Southwest, which was the same distance as today’s Rebel. #7 Ben Diesel, as the fourth selection, looks comparable to Kavod on paper, having strength in early speed but weak in late speed. This race should be a handicapper’s delight with long prices on horses like #8 Chasing Time at 8-1 on the M/L and #10 Ethereal Road at 12-1. Winning his last time out in an $80 OC at Oaklawn in mid January, there is a lot to like about Chasing Time, who is a son of Not This Time along with Epicenter—the winner of the Risen Star last Saturday. Despite his opening fractions being on the slow side, Chasing Time did not need to do more early on in his last race and turned it on when it counted down the stretch to finish with a 96 LP reading, only behind Ethereal Road overall, who had a 105 LP in his last. Trainer, Steve Asmussen, said of Chasing Time a few days ago that his horse has a lot of talent, albeit is on the youthful side, and has trained very impressively in his three works since the $80K OC at Oaklawn in mid January. On the other hand, Ethereal Road is a Secretariat type of horse, slow in the early going but with dominant late speed, projecting at 47% win probability against the field in LP. The question for Ethereal Road is whether he will be able to catch up to the field in time for his big move, which didn’t seem to be a problem in this last race, a $84K maiden claimer at Oaklawn at the end of January, when he won impressively by four lengths despite a sluggish start. In the final analysis, this race is a case where the speed figures and the math projections are not telling the whole story, although the model is always a good starting point. The handicapper needs to know when to deviate from the quantitative projections, when other factors stand out. The final selections are Newgrange, Barber Road, Kavod and Ben Diesel, which, except for Kavod, is the order in according to the M/L odds. However, while I am comfortable with Newgrange as a first selection, I believe either Chasing Time or Ethereal Road could have an upset today and I would be choosing those three horses for the exacta.   

Today at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans is the $400K Risen Star Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features three graded stakes winners, including Smile Happy, who won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club in late November at Churchill, Slow Down Andy, winner of the Los Alamos Futurity in mid December, and Epicenter, who won the $100K Gun Runner Stakes at the Fairgrounds in December and who also placed second in the G3 Lecomte at the Fairgrounds in January. In this race the Handicap Wizard is favoring #1 Pappacap with a total win probability of 25.38%, which would make the horse slightly undervalued compared to its 4-1 M/L. Pappacap has the highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 24.3% and the second highest win probability based on the simulation of final speed figures at 28.7%, while also projecting strongly in E1 and E2 at 32.6% and 38%. The program may be onto something here with Pappacap, who, coming out of post 1, is the speed in the race along with #5 Epicenter. Pappacap has the highest COMP figure at 43.5%, which is a calculation that adds to together the win probabilities from simulations of E1, E2 and LP figures against those of the other horses, and has relatively low risk or a Coefficient of Variance of 5.81%. Pappacap did not have a good trip in the Remsen, when the horse was uncharacteristically slow out of the gate and had to make up ground on the back stretch. I’m guessing it was Joe Bravo’s fault and not the horse’s that Pappacap was not more forwardly placed in that race, which is why Mark Casse made the change to Tyler Gaffalione for the Risen Star. The second selection is #10 Slow Down Andy with a total win probability of 21.65% versus the 4.5-1 M/L. The horse projects best in terms of final speed at 36.6% win probability after coming off a career best final speed figure of 101 at Los Alamos and is well rested after having raced last 70 days ago. One concern about Slow Down Andy is that he looked a little green in his last race by waving his head down the stretch in the Los Alamos. The third selection according to the program is #8 Smile Happy with a 18.73% total win probability. Smile Happy is lightly raced in having only two starts, but, as mentioned, won the Kentucky Jockey Club in his last start and was in good company in that race with White Abarrio, who won the Holy Bull at Gulfstream two weeks ago. The program’s selections are #1 Pappacap, #10 Slow Down Andy, #8 Smile Happy and #5 Epicenter. Personally, I am favoring Pappacap and Smile Happy to go one two or vice versa, while expecting #10 Slow Down Andy or #7 Zandon to come in third. Zandon had a good showing in the Remsen, but might have the same problem as Mo Donegal did in the Holy Bull by not showing enough early speed and closing too late.

In race 10 in the opening day at Gulfstream today, a $20K claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year-olds, there was an true mispricing opportunity with #7 King of Rock at 20-1. Even though the horse had a low Winning Percentage at 5.3%, King of Rock had a total win probability of 24.65% (3-1 fair value), thanks to having the highest winning SPD estimate at 46.5% as well as strong component estimates in E1, E2 and LP. The only other horse that showed any speed whatseover in the simulation was the favorite #9 French Reef at 4-5, who was an overlay at that price. In the race, King of Rock broke quickest from the gate, but French Reef soon led through the opening quarter with a time of 23.24. The horses ran side-by-side coming out of the far turn, before King of Rock edged French Reef by a nose at the wire. The horse paid $42.80 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $140.40!