Author: handicapwizard

On Saturday at the Fair Grounds is the $1 million G2 Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi on the dirt for three-year olds. The fields features Epicenter, winner of the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds in February, Call Me Midnight, who won the Lecomte over Epicenter at the Fairgrounds in January, and Zosos, who is undefeated in two starts after winning a $100K optional claiming race over 1 1/16 mi at Oaklawn in mid February. The Handicapwizard is favoring #6 Epicenter with a total win probability of 36.01%, who is a little expensive at 7-5 on the morning line. Epicenter is the speed and class in this race, projecting first in SPD, E1 and E2, while having the highest win percentage in the field at 28.0%. Second is #3 Call Me Midnight with a total win probability of 16.65%, who projects second in final speed at 28.2% win probability and second in LP at 30.9%. In contrast to Epicenter, who ran last a month ago, Call Me Midnight comes into the race well rested after a two-month layoff. Third is #2 Zosos with a 13.16% total win probability. He has the third highest winning percentage at 14.8%, which is understated from having only two starts. Fourth is #9 Rattle and Roll with a 12.73% total win probability, who regressed in his last race in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, when he finished 6^th by seven lengths. On the flip side, the horse had a bullet work on Mar. 19 at Gulfstream, in which he went over 5f in 0:58 seconds. Despite his disappointing showing in the Fountain of Youth, when he went off at about 5-1, Brian Hernandez remains in the saddle. The fourth selection is #2 Zosos with a 13.16% total win probability. He’s the greenest horse in the field with only two starts, but is undefeated after winning a $100K optional claiming race at Oaklawn over 1 1/16 mi. in his last start in mid February. Florent Jeroux rides Zosos and Brad Cox is the trainer. In the final analysis, Epicenter looks to be the most impressive horse on paper, but will likely face tough challenges from Call Me Midnight, who bested him by a head in the Lecomte in January, and from Zosos, who projects first in LP at 37.4%. Zosos‘ 94 final speed fig in the his last race at Oaklawn is a little deceiving because of the slow pace in that race. When the horse cleared the far turn, Zosos sprinted right on cue, leaving the field in the dust as a winner by 10 lengths. While having strong early speed, Epicenter could be vulnerable down the stretch to the closers, Call Me Midnight and Zosos, which Call Me Midnight already proved in the Lecomte. Therefore, Epicenter does not appear to be a strong favorite in this spot and would be expensive at less than 2-1, even though he is the least risky of the favorites. Zosos made a big improvement from his 1^st to his second race, jumping from 76 to 94 in terms of final speed figures. What is surprising about the horse is his strength in late speed, even though he has the pedigree of a sprinter on his sire’s side as a son of Munnings and grandson of Speighstown. One has to go back to Zosos’ great grandfather on his dam’s side in Holy Bull to find any long-distance pedigree, who was a multiple G1 winner, including winner of the Florida Derby. Regarding Rattle N Roll, his regression in the Fountain of Youth as a 6^th place finisher is concerning, but this will be his second start back after the long layoff. The final selections are #6 Epicenter, #3 Call Me Midnight, #2 Zosos and #9 Rattle N Roll.

Here’s the replay of the Whitmore Stakes at Oaklawn from Sat., Mar. 19

The Handicapwizard had a good result today in the $200K Whitmore Stakes at Oaklawn, run at 6f on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The program’s first selection, Bob’s Edge, with a total win probability of 19.49% versus final odds of 5-2, won in exciting fashion with a late move in the center of the track, besting #7 Tulane Tryst who also came up late. Bob’s Edge paid $7.60 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard had a nice result today in the 9th race at Oaklawn, a $20K claiming race for fillies and mares three-years old and up. #8 Uncle Mo’s Cat was the first selection with a total win probability of 24.7% versus final odds of 9-5. The horse projected 1st in final speed at 53.7% and had relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.7%. The progam’s second selection was #5 Alpine Ghost at 39-1 with a total win probability of 14.61%. The third selection was #10 Mo Betta at 9-1 with a total win probability of 13.03%, thanks to having the highest winning percentage in the field at 24.4%. As it turned out, Uncle Mo’s Cat was a winner by two lengths over #10 Mo Better, who came up along the rail for 2nd to beat #1 Strike at Beat at 7-2. Uncle Mo’s Cat paid $5.60 to win, while a $1 ex. box with 8, 5, 10 paid $24.80. This race shows the value of the Handicap Wizard’s approach of using both simulation and historical performance, that Mo Better’s high winning percentage factored heavily to make it a 3rd selection, even though the horse had only a 3.9% win probability according to the final speed projection in the simulation.

Today at Tampa Bay is the $400K G2 Tampa Bay Derby, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features Classic Causeway, winner of the Sam F. Davis at Tampa in mid February, Shipsensational, who was the runner-up in the Sam F. Davis and before that won a couple graded races at Belmont last fall, including the $250K Sleepy Hollow over 1 mi. There is also Major General, winner of the Iroquis at Churchill last September and Money Supply, who broke his maiden in one start at Tampa in February. The Handicapwizard is favoring #4 Classic Causeway with a total win probability of 24.62%, which would make him an overlay at 8-5 on M/L. Nevertheless, there are things to like about this horse, including projecting strongly in E1 and E2 as well as having the second highest final speed estimate at 34.4% and the highest COMP value at 48.9%, when no one else is even close. At the same time, he has low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4.29%. Next is #9 Shipsensational, who has a total win probability of 23.54% versus 5-1 on the M/L, while projecting 1^st in final speed at 48.7%. However, he is riskier with a CV value of 10.39% and took a step back in form with his last start. Third is #5 Giant Game with a total win probability of 14.21%, who would be undervalued compared to 10-1 on the M/L. Giant Game projects similarly to Classic Causeway in E1 and E2 and has the second highest win percentage at 18.8%. The horse turned in a disappointing effect in his last start in the Holy Bull, when he finished eighth by 24 lengths. However, it has come to light since that race that the horse suffered a throat problem in a displaced palate, which has since been corrected. In his two most recent works, Giant Game ran 5f in 0:59, showing that the horse has been training consistently well. Tied for fourth in the selections are #7 Strike Hard with a 9.14% total win probability and #8 Major General at 9.05%. Major General has the highest win percentage in the field at 19.2% due to his win in the Iroquis at Churchill. In the final analysis, if he runs like he did in the Sam. F. Davis by getting out to the lead and holding it, this race is Classic Causeway’s to win. It will be interesting to see whether Shipsensational will be more forwardly placed to challenge Classic Causeway, who did not get the best trip in the Sam F. Davis, getting stuck in traffic around the far turn, before having to make a five wide move down the stretch to come up for second. Shipsensational does project first in LP at 39.3% win probability, so it’s a matter of whether he can use that late energy earlier on to get into a closer stalking position against Classic Causeway. If Giant Game’s throat problem was temporary, he may be the overlooked horse in this race, because he had been progressing nicely before his regression in the Holy Bull. Regarding Major General, the horse has not been training stellar and for that reason should not be a factor in this race that will be all about pace. On the other hand, Happy Boy Rocket did turn in a nice effort in his maiden win at Gulfstream at the end of January and may pose a challenge to the expected leaders down the stretch. The final selections are Classic Causeway 1^st, Shipsensational 2^nd, Giant Game 3^rd and Strike Hard 4^th.