Like with the Kentucky Derby, the Handicap Wizard had the first and second place finishers in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico with its top two selections. Getting big odds of 11-1, the fillie, #4 Swiss Skydiver, shocked the favorite, #9 Authentic at 3-2, down the stretch to win by half a length. As mentioned in the Preview, Swiss Skydiver had the highest COMP estimate at 37.3%, which was also the winning indicator in the Kentucky Derby for Authentic. #6 Jesus’ Team finished 3rd at 40-1. Swiss Skydiver paid $25.40 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $75.60.
The Handicap Wizard Turf Program had a good result in the 9th race at Pimlico today—the $100K James W. Murphy Stakes—in having the exacta order correct with its top two selections. The odds favorite, #10 Don Juan Kitten, at 5-2 was the first selection with a total win probability of 18.12%, owing to a field high SPD win estimate of 36.2%. The second selection was #19 Bye Bye Melvin with a 12.3% win probability and 18.5% SPD estimate, who had the second lowest odds at 9-2. This is how the order went, with Don Juan Kitten holding off Bye Bye Melvin at the wire to win by a nose. The $2 exacta paid $36.40. #9 Monday Morning QB was a first-time starter on the turf at 10-1 and therefore had no turf data to evaluate.
On Saturday is the $1 mil. Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. It features a stellar field, including Kentucky Derby winner, #9 Authentic at 9-5 on the M/L, #3 Art Collector at 5-2, who won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, the fillie, #4 Swiss Skydiver at 6-1, who ran 2nd in the G1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill and 1st in the G1 Alabama at Saratoga, as well as #5 Thousand Words at 6-1, who beat Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar but was scratched from the Kentucky Derby shortly before the start after rearing up and falling. The Handicap Wizard is a favoring Authentic as its first selection with a total win probability of 31.74%, which is close to the implied probability of its M/L price of 9-5. The horse rates best in final speed with a 29.6% win estimate and has relatively low risk with a CV of 5.91%. Authentic is the only horse in the field to receive a FIT2 check-mark for having the highest SPD estimate and WP at 41.5%. The second selection is Swiss Skydiver with a 18.6% win probability, who, while rating slightly lower in final speed with a 20.3% win estimate, has the highest COMP estimate at 37.3%. This indicates the horse rates at odds as low as 2-1 with its components (E1, E2 and LP) combined in simulation against the other horses, while Swiss Skydiver also has low risk with a 4.5% CV. In the Kentucky Derby, Authentic also had the highest COMP estimate at 36.1% in that field and ended up defeating the favorite, Tiz the Law, at 8-1. The third selection is Art Collector with a 15.42% win probability, who has done no wrong in 2020 by winning his last five races. Art Collector has the highest LP estimate at 37.7% compared to Authentic’s 0.1% and Swiss Skydiver’s 18.8%. The wildcard in the race is Baffert trained, Thousand Words, who gets another crack at his stable-mate, Authentic, under the ride of Florent Geroux. With Authentic having regressed in his last race in terms of final speed to 104 from 107, he could be vulnerable in this race to a horse like Thousand Words, who has not peaked. As a long-shot, #7 NY Traffic at 15-1 is back after finishing a disappointing 8th in the Kentucky Derby, when it was discovered afterward he had lost a shoe and suffered cuts to his ankle that required a staple. NY Traffic recorded the second fastest work on Sept. 27 at Churchill over 4f with a time of 48 seconds flat. The program’s top selections are #9 Authentic, #4 Swiss Skydiver, #3 Art Collector and #5 Thousand Words. Click on the image and then the link in the lower right to see in full resolution.
Besides a number of graded stakes turf races taking place at Kentucky Downs today, there were several graded stakes races north of the border at Woodbine, the premier being the $1 mi. Queen’s Plate Stakes for three-year-olds at 1 1/4 mi. on the main track. The program’s first selection was #10 Curlin’s Voyage with a win probability of 20.81%, who was also the odd’s favorite at 5-2. That made him a slight overlay. The program’s second choice was #13 Mighty Heart, who had a 12.33% win probability. The horse had the 2nd highest final speed estimate at 19.0%, while Curlin’s Voyage was 1st at 32.7%. Even though Mighty Heart’s final speed projection was high, the horse was at a discount at 13-1. The reason for its low price in terms of expectations was that it had only a 5.9% win percentage adjusted for stakes over four races. In the race, #13 Mighty Heart showed he was all heart, winning by eight lengths going away. The horse paid $28.50 for the win. This race shows again the success of the HW philosophy, which is selecting horses with reasonable chances to win, who also are undervalued according to the program. Here Mighty Heart was valued at 4-1 by final speed in the simulation but was offered at odds of 13-1.
In a thrilling finish, Baffert trained #18 Authentic at 8-1 held off the favorite, #17 Tiz the Law at 3-5 to win the Kentucky Derby in an upset. This was the reverse order of Program 4.1’s projections, which had Tiz the Law first and Authentic second. Of note, Authentic had a higher COMP estimate at 36.1% versus 31% for Tiz the Law, indicating that at a component level (simulated E1, E2 and LP results combined) Authentic projected slightly stronger. Authentic paid $18.80 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $41.00. Earlier, Baffert lost his other horse in the field, #10 Thousand Words, who had reared up and fell about forty minutes before the race, causing his automatic scratch. Unfortunately, the optimism for NY Traffic did not pan out. Whether due to injury or not, the horse weakened at the quarter pole after running first and second off the pace until that point.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 