Author: handicapwizard

Race 5 at Parx saw a nice result today with #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 in a big upset. The two favorites in the race according to both the Program and the live odds were #5 Mr. Classical at 3-1 and #2 Gray Gary at 4-5, who had total win probabilities of 26.38% and 21.46%. Only Mr. Classical was at fair value, while Gray Gary was an overlay. According to the ROI analysis, there were three horses that had positive expected value, including #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 with +151% ROI, #8 King’s Gold at 41-1 with +111% ROI and #5 Surfer Boy George at 19-1 with +61% ROI. The one horse with a reasonable chance of winning among these was #6 Awe Run as a fourth selection with a 12% win probability. Though the horse had only a 2.5% historical win percentage, adjusted for stakes, Awe Mun simulated very well against the horses in the COMP category with 54% value, whose fair value on that basis would have been 1-1. Again, the COMP is a measure of the simulated results of E1, E2 and LP added together, which reflects the cumulative strength of his component metrics against the other horses. As it turns out, Awe Mun ran a big race to finish first, paying $42. Fortunately, the COMP estimate held up in this race, which showed big value for the horse as did the ROI analysis.

It was an unfortunate day for the race favorite, #5 Tom’s D’etat, in the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga. After several horses acted up in gate, forcing the the starter to delay the start,  Tom’s D’etat stumbled out of the gate and trailed for much of the race until the last sixteenth, when he managed to make up ground on the outside to finish third. Otherwise, the race came down to the second and third ranked horses by final speed, as predicted in the Preview, with #2 Improbable winning by three lengths at 3-1 followed #1 By My Standards in second at 5-1.

Here are the projections for today’s $750K G1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The program’s top selection is #5 Tom’s D’etat with a 27% win probability, who is also the M/L and Brisnet favorite in the race. Tom’s D’etat has won his last four races, most recently the G2 Stephen Foster at the same distance at Churchill on Jun 27, when he beat #1 By My Standards by four lengths. Tom’s D’etat has an advantage in SPD with a 43.7% win probability according to the simulation while also having the highest COMP estimate at 48.9%. The second selection is #1 By My Standards with a 22.6% win probability, who like Tom’s D’etat, is coming into the race in good form after recording a career high final speed figure in his last race. Of these two horses, only Tom’s D’etat has experience at Saratoga with a win in the $100K Alydar on Aug 2, 2019 and a fourth place finish in the Woodward on Aug 31, 2019. The third choice is #3 Code of Honor, who, despite not rating as well according to the simulation with a 4.7% SPD estimate, has the highest winning percentage in the field at 35.7%. Code of Honor was a winner in the 1 1/16 mi. Westchester on June 6 at Belmont. Previously, he won the Travers, Dwyer and Fountain of Youth in 2019. Of note, Code of Honor has the highest LP estimate in the field at 36%, but he will need to be quicker earlier on to compete with Tom’s D’etat, who rates well in all phases of the race. Bob Baffert trained #2 Improbable likewise comes into the race in solid form after a win in the 1 1/4 mi. Gold Cup on Jun. 6 at Santa Anita, in which he beat Higher Power by three lengths. Improbable ranks third best by final speed, but is behind the other horses as far as winning percentage at 15.3%. Considering recent form, Tom’s D’etat, By My Standards and Improbable appear to be the strongest contenders in that order, but Code of Honor should not be discounted as the winning-est horse and the one with the highest LP estimate. Additionally, his rider, John Velazquez, has won the Whitney Stakes four times.

Here are some results with the turf program from yesterday. The first was the 10th race at Gulfstream—the $60K Mecke Stakes—run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds and up. The program’s second selection in #1 Sailing Solo was the winner at around 8-5, while its first selection in #5 Galleon Mask came in 3rd. Sailing Solo had both the highest LP and COMP estimates of 46.1% and 38.2% along with the second highest Win Percentage at 18.8%.

GP Race 10

Del Mar Race 9

In the G2 $150K San Clemente at Del Mar, run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the program’s second selection in #3 Laura’s Light won, who was the odds favorite at 6-5 and winningest horse in the field with a 22.5% WP.  The first selection #1 She’s So Special rallied from 3rd position around the far turn to take 2nd inside the last sixteenth mile just behind Laura’s Light but weakened to 4th before the wire.

In the premiere race yesterday at Del Mar—the G2 $150K San Diego Handicap—run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up, the program had the winner with its first selection of #5 Maximum Security at 2-5. Maximum Security had not run since Feb 29, when he won the Saudi Cup at 1 1/8 mi. Returning to form, 6 Midcourt gave Maximum Security everything he had, with the two dueling for much of the race, but fell just short in the end to place second. #1 Higher Power came in third. #4 Combatant was held too long by the assistant starter when the gates opened, causing him to jump awkwardly forward, which led to a slow start.