Author: handicapwizard

The program had a nice exacta result in the 5th today at Gulfstream, a $16K maiden claiming race on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. In a competitive field with no horse receiving even a 20% win probability, #2 Amadora was the first selection at 7-1 with an 18.0% win probability followed by #7 Centless Drama at 2-1 with 16.69%. Centless Drama was a co-favorite in the odds along with #4 Dance Till Dawn at 2-1. In the race, Centless Drama broke well from the gate and led around the first turn, while Amadora stuck to the rail and stalked three back. On the back stretch, Amadora fought the jockey before being allowed to pick up the pace at the half mile pole. Around the far turn Amadora had cut Centless Drama’s length to two lengths before shooting through a lane to the outside down the stretch and then bolting home to victory. Amadora paid $16.20, while the $2 exacta paid $55.

The 4.1 Grey program had the winner with its top selection in the $500K Alabama in the 9th at Saratoga today, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year old fillies. With a total win probability of 38.9%, thanks to a 55.3% SPD estimate and a 30.4% winning percentage, #5 Swiss Skydiver at 1-1 went wire-to-wire in the win. #4 Bonny South, who had the second highest winning percentage at 18.9%, finished second at 10-1. Swiss Skydiver paid $4.40.

There was a nice result in race 1 at Gulfstream today, run at 1 1/6 mi. on the turf for four-year olds. The Turf Program’s second selection in #5 Mustang Cat was an underlay and the most undervalued horse at 10-1 versus a total win probability of 17.16%, with an expected ROI of +89%. The horse was dominant in E1 and E2 with winning estimates of 59.4% and 45.5% and also had the highest COMP at 49%, yet the money line dismissed him at 15-1. In the race, Mustang Cat went wire to wire, holding off a late surge by the favorite #4 Keep Quiet at 7-5. Mustang Cat paid $22.00 for the win.

The Turf Program had the winner with its first selection in the race 5 at Saratoga today—the $100K Perfect String Stakes—run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years-old and up. In a competitive field, the program favored #5 Feel Glorious (GB) with a 25.22% total win probability, who was an underlay at 5-1. Feel Glorious was 1st in SPD and LP with 32.7% and 39.3% according to the simulation and had the 2nd highest Winning Percentage by a hair at 28.7%. Feel Glorious surged late down the stretch to edge out #6 Chaleur at 4-1 by half a length. In doing so, the horse beat out four other horses with lower odds, including #4 Altea at 9-5 and #1 Cafe Americano at 5-2. Feel Glorious paid $13.60 for the win.

 

There was a nice result today in race 6 at Parx, a $7.5K allowance race at 1m70 on the dirt for three-year-old fillies and mares. The program’s first selection was #3 Colloquium at 6-1, who had a total winning probability of 27.74%. The horse received a check in FIT2 for having the highest Winning Percentage at 27.2% along with the second highest SPD winning estimate of 24.1%. Colloquium was an ideal choice as a first selection underlay, having an expected ROI of +94%. In the race, Colloquium won a duel against #5 Sweet Home down the stretch to take the victory.