Author: handicapwizard

Like the United Nation’s in the 11th, the $85K Wolf Hill Stakes at Monmouth in the 13th— run at 5.5f on the turf for three-year-olds and up—was another “handicappers’ race”. There were three odds favorites at 5-2, including #5 Dubini, #6 Archidust and #9 Shelly Shebaz. The 1st selection according to the model was Shekky Shebas with a 24.12% win probability and a 32% SPD estimate. However, the horse was 133 days since last raced and somewhat risky with a 10.66% Coefficient of Variance. The least risky choice among the favorites was #6 Archidust with a 3.71% CV along with a 19% SPD and a 26.9% LP estimate. Another horse worth considering was #11 American Sailor at 8-1 because of his strong E1 and E2 estimates of 55.3% and 27.4%, showing that he had the right kind of speed for this 5 1/2f sprint. The horse had a number of other things going for him, including moving up in class after winning his last at $50K and fairly strong jockey and trainer winning percentages of 19% and 19%. In the race, American Sailor broke quickest from the gate and opened up a four length lead around the far turn, while Archidust took aim at the leader from the outside upon hitting the stretch. Archidust proved too strong inside the last 1/16 mi. to get the win, with American Sailor finishing a length back in second. Shekky Shebas was 3rd. The $2 exacta paid $87.20.

In the 12th race at Monmouth—the $1 million Haskell Invitational—run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, the program had the winner with its first selection, #2 Authentic at 3-5.  In a thrilling finish, Authentic held off a late surging #7 NY Traffic at 5-1 for the win, who was the third selection. The 2nd selection, #1 Dr. Post, came in 3rd.

 

There was a very good result in the $300K United Nations on turf, the 11th race at Monmouth today. The program had #9 Paret (10-1) as its 2nd selection followed by #5 Aquaphobia (10-1) third.  Those horses came in 2nd and 1st. Arklow as the 1st selection at 6-5 finished 4th. The $2 exacta paid $198.20.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After a wild day yesterday at Saratoga, in which a number of long-shots won, the Handicap Wizard had a good score in the 9th race today by hitting the tri-fecta in the $85K Shine Again Stakes with its top three selections. The program had the order #5 Indian Pride (2-1), #9 Blamed (5-2) and #2 Risky Mandate (5-2). However, this handicapper cautions users about playing Saratoga, because of the randomness of results there in races below graded stakes. It’s not just this year, rather Saratoga was like this last year, too, making it one of the toughest tracks to beat.

 

 

In the 8th race at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year-old fillies an up, #3 Heir Ball was the heavy favorite at 4-5 odds. However, its data did not stack up to justify those odds, as it had only a 19.63% total win probability, which was due mostly to its SPD estimate of 43.7%. Two horses that were offering value according to ROI analysis were #4 Merseyside at 10-1 and #5 Charlieanna at 21-1 with positive expected ROIs of 67% and 233%. Merceyside had a slightly higher win probability at 15.22%. It also had the highest E2 and COMP estimates at 50.2% and 36.3% and highest win percentage at 16.9%. With such a short race as a 5f sprint, the handicapper should be focusing on the E1 and E2 estimates, which both horses dominated. In the race, Merseyside went from last to first after a slow start, flying at the end to beat #7 Charlotte the Brit by a neck.  Charlotte the Brit was also undervalued, but was less reasonable to take as a 6th selection.