Author: handicapwizard

Not every race, of course, is as easy as taking the first selection. Race 4 at Parx today, a $25K maiden race at 1m70 on the turf, required a more nuanced approach to handicap. The odds favorites were #4 The Law of the Land at 6-5 and #1 Abdaa at 5-2. Neither of the horses had high win probabilities, but both had the highest trainer and jockey win percentages (17% and 18%) and (21% and 21%), while The Law of the Land had a 20% win percentage. The horse with the highest win percentage, though, was #2 Rated Special at 24.3%. On this basis, the horse was undervalued compared to its 7-1 odds. Rated Special was only one of three horses to have been successful previously on turf and at the 1m70 distance with a money finish. You can see this in the new features with version 4.1. Moreover, the horse recorded the second highest SPD in the field with a 77 two races back, indicating high potential speed. As I write about in the PHW Strategy Book, horses with the highest win percentages are prime candidates for a bounce-back in form, because they have already proven themselves, even though they may not rate well in simulation. This is often true of such horses after a long lay-off, like Rated Special had with 169 DSLR. In the race, Rated Special broke well from the gate and stalked in fourth place on the back stretch behind three long-shots. The horse was three-wide coming out of the far turn but catapulted himself into the clear, while Law of the Land was gaining just a length back to his outside. #8 Lexitoga also drew near on the far outside heading into the wire, but Rated Special ultimately held off both in the win.

Here is another good result in race 2 at Parx, a $21K claiming race at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds an up. The program had #9 Alfred as the first selection with a 32% win probability, making it an underlay at 4-1 odds. The odds favorite was #4 Traffic Trouble at 1-1 with a 13.89% win probability, but had jockey and trainer win percentages of 21% and 21%, explaining its low odds. In the race, #7 Hazaspitten’ Image and #9 Alfred were in the first flight out of the gate and stalked from the 3rd and 4th positions on the back stretch. Alfred began making his move around the far turn and took the lead inside the final eighth, while Traffic Trouble surged on the inside. In the end, Alfred dug in and held on for the win. The race shows that even against a superior jockey and trainer, the horse with the best math for his own ability won. Exciting race!

 

Here is an excellent result today at Parx in race 7, an $8K allowance race at 6f for three-year-olds. The program’s top three selections were #3 Royalty Salvatore, #8 Emperor John and #6 Old Faithful. That was the final order of the tri-fecta. With a 25% win probability, thanks to a 40.5% SPD and 28.9% and 54.6% E1 and E2 estimates, Royalty Salvatore was an underlay at 5-1 as a first selection, when his fair value was 3-1. The horse paid $12.80 for the win, while the tri-fecta paid $19.20 (at approx. 38-1 combined odds).

In the 9th race, a $8K claiming race at 5 1/2f for three-year-old fillies and mares, there were three favorites at 2-1 odds, including #1 Mess N’ Around, #2 Coupella and #8 Corn on the Cob. The first selection according to the program was #1 Mess N’ Around with a 30.77% win probability,  who also had the highest SPD and LP win estimates at 36.0% and 51.7%. His LP strength was decisive, with Mess N’ Around surging down the stretch in the win. The horse paid $6.80.

 

 

 

 

 

Here is an example of how PHW 4.1 Grey can be used to achieve a successful handicapping outcome in finding the true favorite in a race. In race 3 at Belmont, a $16K claiming race for three-year-olds at 6f, there were essentially two favorites in #1 Wayne’s Footsteps at 3-1 and #6 Cobble Hill at 5-2. The total win probabilities of both were around 20%, with Wayne’s Footsteps having a slightly higher one due to a superior Winning Percentage of 19%. However, upon closer inspection of the PP data, there was a red flag for Wayne’s Footsteps, in that the horse had not run a race for 156 days, with the last time being at Aqueduct, while Cobble Hill finished 1st in his last in a $20K maiden race at Belmont two weeks ago. Consequently, it could be construed that Cobble Hill was in good form, whereas there were questions about Wayne’s Footstep’s form coming off the long layoff and with lackluster works in-between. Moreover, Cobble Hill had the edge in jockey and trainer win percentage at 14% and 26%. As a result, Cobble Hill was clearly the better pick this race, who also had an advantage in LP with a 54% win estimate, which propelled the horse down the stretch in a no-contest win.

 

 

Here is a first look at the soon-to-be-released Pro-Handicap Wizard, version 4.1. This is the first major update in a year. In addition to the already existing calculations for Total Win Probability (TOP) and expected Return on Investment (ROI), the program contains a number of new features geared toward finding the true favorite in a race by providing information on win fitness, distance and surface success, class changes, jockey and trainer winning percentage, Brisnet Prime Power Rating and the days off since last race. Version 4.1 has new color coding to highlight values by degree for the metrics. All of the programs controls remain the same as the previous version. Click on the image below and then the link in the lower right to see it in full-resolution. 

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