Author: handicapwizard

There was a good result today with an undervalued favorite in the Turf Program in race 4 at Saratoga, a $25K claiming race for three-year olds on the inner turf. With a total win probability of 30%, #12 Nutzforboltz was an underlay at 9-1 as a first selection, but had to contend with the odds favorite, #2 Catch a Cab at 1-1, who was the second selection  with 25.23% win probability. Playing it conservatively, Nutzforboltz could have been selected to place and would still have been an underlay. In the race, Nutzforboltz trailed the field in 2nd to last position through the back stretch. #2 Catch a Cab and #11 Good Ole Boy ran third and fourth around the far turn, finding running room on outside.  Nutzforboltz saved ground on the inside around the far turn before shooting through a seam in the middle of the track upon hitting the stretch. Down the stretch, Nutzforboltz then surged past Catch a Cab on the inside to come up for second, while Catch a Cab faded to fourth. Good Ole Boy ran on home for first. Nutzforboltz paid $9.70 to place and the $2 exacta (11-12), which the program had among its top three selections, paid $124.

In the 7th race at Parx, a $12.5K claiming race on the turf for three-year fillies and mares and up, the PHW Turf program had a winner with its 2nd selection, #6 Theodosia at 9-2, with a 39.8% win probability, even though the horse had not run on turf in its last five races. The program’s second selection, #3 Janelle Dreams, came in second at 3-1. Theodosia had the second highest SPD at 35.3% and the highest COMP at 94.3%, which was off the charts. Theodosia paid $11.00 while the $2 exacta (6-1) paid $44.60. The race shows again the advantage of having a pure turf perspective when handicapping. It also shows the fallibility of the lowest-odds favorite without statistical data to support.

The program saw an exacta result in race 7 today at Parx, a $40K maiden race for three-year-olds and up at 1 mi. on the dirt with its top selections of #2 Jerusalem Gates at 7-5 with a 41.7% win probability and #1 Mr. Thrifty at 1-1 with a 32.17% win probability. Both of the horses were dominant in final SPD (48.1% vs. 38.5%) and in COMP (52.5% and 47.1%). The $2 exacta paid $10.60.

Race 5 at Parx saw a nice result today with #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 in a big upset. The two favorites in the race according to both the Program and the live odds were #5 Mr. Classical at 3-1 and #2 Gray Gary at 4-5, who had total win probabilities of 26.38% and 21.46%. Only Mr. Classical was at fair value, while Gray Gary was an overlay. According to the ROI analysis, there were three horses that had positive expected value, including #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 with +151% ROI, #8 King’s Gold at 41-1 with +111% ROI and #5 Surfer Boy George at 19-1 with +61% ROI. The one horse with a reasonable chance of winning among these was #6 Awe Run as a fourth selection with a 12% win probability. Though the horse had only a 2.5% historical win percentage, adjusted for stakes, Awe Mun simulated very well against the horses in the COMP category with 54% value, whose fair value on that basis would have been 1-1. Again, the COMP is a measure of the simulated results of E1, E2 and LP added together, which reflects the cumulative strength of his component metrics against the other horses. As it turns out, Awe Mun ran a big race to finish first, paying $42. Fortunately, the COMP estimate held up in this race, which showed big value for the horse as did the ROI analysis.

It was an unfortunate day for the race favorite, #5 Tom’s D’etat, in the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga. After several horses acted up in gate, forcing the the starter to delay the start,  Tom’s D’etat stumbled out of the gate and trailed for much of the race until the last sixteenth, when he managed to make up ground on the outside to finish third. Otherwise, the race came down to the second and third ranked horses by final speed, as predicted in the Preview, with #2 Improbable winning by three lengths at 3-1 followed #1 By My Standards in second at 5-1.