Author: handicapwizard

It was a good day for the Handicap Wizard at Churchill, with the program having winners with its top two selections in the two premier races, the $150K Matt Winn Stakes in the 10th with #10 Maxfield at 6-5 and the $100K War Chant Stakes in the 11th with #9 Smooth Like a Straight at 5-1. Smooth Like a Straight had a big advantage in E1 and E2 according to the simulation with win estimates of 55.4% and 59.1%, while its total win probability was 17.35%. In the race, Smooth Like a Straight went to the early lead along with #3 Island Commish at 13-1. It stayed that way on the back stretch and into the far turn, before Smooth Like a Straight broke away at the top of the stretch and held on for the win by two lengths over #12 Pixelate. Smooth Like A Straight paid $12.20 in this open contest.

Race 11: War Chant Results

Race 10: Matt Winn Results

Here are the probability projections for today’s $150K Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. #10 Maxfield is the top selection with a total win probability of 29.50% and a final speed estimate of 38.5%. He is also the class of the field with a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 37.1% and is the morning line favorite at 5-2. #5 Flap Jack had a blow out performance in his last race with E1 and E2 figures of 110 and 111 but an LP of only 11, so his E1 and E2 estimates are distorted as a result. #2 Pneumatic and #6 NY Traffic are likely better plays for place and show. #1 Mystic Guide is intriguing as a long shot at 20-1 on the M/L, considering his 37.5% LP estimate, which is higher than Maxfields 31.2%. Click on the image and then the link in the lower right to see the image in full resolution. 

Here is a good result today at Churchill in the 9th race, with the Turf Program hitting the exacta cold, despite #5 Front the Fed being heavily favored at 6-5 . The Handicap Wizard had Mr. Dumas first with a 19.43% win probability, followed by Ritz A.P second at 16.83% and Front the Fed third at 14.76%. #9 Mr. Dumas projected best in term of final speed with a 34.4% win estimate and #6 Ritz A.P second at 25.9%. That is how the order went (9,6). This race is a good example of how well the program can perform when the risk of the horses is lower. For this $80K optional claiming race, the Coefficient of Variance was just 6%, which is fairly low. The $2 exacta paid $54.80.

The program had a good result in the one stakes race at Gulfstream in race 8, the $75K Powder Break Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf’/off turf for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The favorite was #3 Bella Ciao at 2-1, who did not rate strong according to the program but did win her last race at the $50K stakes level in driving fashion. Two horses that did rate well by final speed were #2 Jakarta with a 26.7% SPD estimate and #11 W W Fitzy with a 36.2% estimate. Jakarta was at a big discount at 11-1 odds, when her fair value was 3-1 by final speed projections. The horse was not risky either given its CV of 8%. In the race, Jakarta broke quickest from the gate and went wire-to-wire, while #3 Bella Ciao surged late from behind to get second. The $2 exacta 2,3 paid $77.60.

In race 6 at Gulfstream yesterday, a $35K maiden claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up, #8 Youcantcatchcurlin was a horse that was overlooked at 30-1 but offered significant value in terms of speed. Though the horse had no money finishes in two races, he rated third best according to the final speed simulation with a 10.8% win estimate. He fared even better according to E1, E2 and LP individually with estimates of 28.2%, 15.4% and 41.5%, not to mention the horse showing good progression in his last race and being a son of Curlin! This all pointed to a horse that was at a steep discount at 30-1, whose fair value was below 9-1 and probably closer to 5-1. In the race, #4 Swing West broke fastest from the gate and was followed closely by one of the favorites, #5, Fried Rice King at 2-1, who was the top selection according to the program. Following a fast opening quarter of 22.75, Youcantcatchcurlin ran some nine lengths back before launching a bid at the half mile pole that propelled him to the lead at the top stretch, where he dug in all the way to the wire, holding off the other favorite, #6 Tons of Gold at 9-5, and resulting in a dead heat. Youcantcatchcurlin paid $22.40 for the win tie and $17.20 for the place.