Author: handicapwizard

Here is a nice result from the early going at Tampa in the 3rd, a $6.5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year old fillies and mares. On a muddy track, the program had #6 Dad’s Yankees as the first selection with a 19.8% total win probability followed by #8 Northern with 18.66% probability. Dad’s Yankees was a substantial underlay at 11-1 while Northern was priced at about fair value at 4-1. Dad’s Yankees was attractive in the race because of her early speed, as shown in the E1 and E2 estimates of 92.5% and 23.2%, which suited this sprint distance. In the race, Dad’s Yankees won the break and  led the race until the final 1/16 mi., when the tiring horse was caught by Northern. Dad’s Yankees paid $10.20 for the place and the $2 Exacta 8-6 paid $76.20.

In the 4th, a $5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year olds filies and mares, the program had the winner with its first selection in #3 Burke’s Babe at 5-1, who was about fairly priced relative to a 17.56% win probability. The horse had strong E1 and E2 estimates of 50.9% and 62.9%, which again were well suited to the 6f sprint distance. In a twelve horse field, Burke’s Babe went wire-to-wire, paying $12.40 for the win.

 

 

 

There were two races at Gulfstream yesterday that exemplify how the program can be used to achieve profitable results. In the 5th, a $20K maiden race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the favorite and program first selection was #2 Philly Special at 6-5. The horse was an underlay at those odds versus a 29.98% win probability. The next two selections in #5 Chouchou De Boo and #8 Polished Copper offered value with odds of 7-1 and 8-1 compared to probabilities of 22.22% and 17.89%, which gave them positive expected ROI values of 78% and 61%. Either of the horses would have made good win or place candidates. As it turned out, one would have won betting place on both horses, with Polished Copper coming in first and Choucho De Boo second. Polished Copper paid $18.20 and the $2 exacta 8-5 paid $134.40.

In the 8th race, a $50K optional claiming race at 5f for three-year old filies on the turf, the favorite and program 1st selection was #5 Shippy at 1-1 odds. The horse, too, was overpriced versus a win probability of 31.47%. Where there was value was in the 3rd selection, #3 Poseidon’s Passion, at 12-1. Going by his win probability of 9.53%, Poseidon’s Passion was a slight underlay. However, according to his E1 and E2 estimates of 24.2% and 20.1%, which covers the 5f – 6f distance, the horse’s fair value was between 3-1 and 4-1. In other words, the horse was at a heavy discount according to the E1 and E2 simulation results, when only Shippy appeared faster with E1 and E2 values of 7.8% and 64.3%. Poseidon’s Passion won the race, paying $26.60, while Shippy came in second. The $2 exacta paid $91.60. There certainly was risk taking Poseidon’s Passion in this race as a first-time turf horse, but the data supported the horse having good speed in a sprint. Here the grey version had to be used, since some of the horses, like Poseidon’s Passion, had no turf data.

Race 5

Race 8

 

The Handicap Wizard had winners with its top selections in four out of five non-maiden races at Will Rodgers today, specifically, in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th. The program nearly had the late pick three correct, winning the maiden race in the 8th as well. Its second choice in #1 Sugoi won the 9th with a win probability just 1.4% below that of the first selection. The $0.50 late pick three 1-1-9 paid $15.90.

Race 2

Race 3

Race 5

Race 8

Race 9

Race 10

 

 

The Handicap Wizard had a number of winners yesterday at Will Rodgers, including in the 2nd, the 3rd, the 6th and 10th races, as shown below. In the $50K Highland Ice Stakes in the 9th, run at 6f on the dirt for three-year olds colts and geldings, the program’s third selection, #2 Oil Money, won at 18-1. The horse was well undervalued compared to his 11.27% win probability, where his E1 and E2 estimates of 40.8% and 26.2% projected strength in a sprint.

Race 2

Race 3

Race 6

Race 9

Race 10

The program had a nice result in the 9th race at Will Rogers today, the $50K Wilma Mankiller Stakes at 6f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and up, with its second and third selections in #3 Wholehearted and #10 Drip Brew making up the exacta at odds of 2-1 and 9-1. #2 Estilo Feminio was the favorite in the race at 3-2, but did not hit the board. Two other horses had less odds than Drip Brew. The $2 Exacta (3-10) paid $80.