Author: handicapwizard

Here is a first look at the soon-to-be-released Pro-Handicap Wizard, version 4.1. This is the first major update in a year. In addition to the already existing calculations for Total Win Probability (TOP) and expected Return on Investment (ROI), the program contains a number of new features geared toward finding the true favorite in a race by providing information on win fitness, distance and surface success, class changes, jockey and trainer winning percentage, Brisnet Prime Power Rating and the days off since last race. Version 4.1 has new color coding to highlight values by degree for the metrics. All of the programs controls remain the same as the previous version. Click on the image below and then the link in the lower right to see it in full-resolution. 

Here is a nice result today in the 5th race at Gulfstream, a $12.5K claiming race on the turf at 1 1/16 mi. for four-year-olds and up. The Turf Program had the exacta order correct with #8 Cash Call Kitten first at 2-1, followed by #3 Basha second at 5-2.

In race 3 at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 mi. for four-year olds and up, the program’s first selection, #3 Creak Brklyn Law at 3-1, won over the odds favorite, #1 Dizzy Gillespie at 4-5. Creak Brklyn Law had a total winning probability of 29%, with a SPD estimate of 32.8% (2nd) and a Winning Percentage of 39.8% (1st). On the basis of WP, the horse’s fair value was about 7-5, yet went off at 3-1. As a first selection, Creak Brklyn Law was a slight underlay with an expected ROI of +16%.

Yesterday there was a good result in race 5 at Parx, a $7.5K claiming race at 1M 70Y for three-year-olds and up, in which the Program had the exacta order correct. The favorite was #1 Synergized at 1-1 with a 26% total win probability, who was a coupled entry with #1a Bridlecrest. The second selection was #6 Cape My Style at 20-1, who had a 16.42% total win probability. The horse was overlooked for having a low Winning Percentage of just 3.2%. However, its potential speed according to the simulation told a different story, in that the horse rated second overall with a 27% final speed estimate versus 29.4% for Synergized. On that basis, Cape My Style’s fair value was below 3-1. Compared to its total win probability, which accounts for the horse’s low winning percentage, the horse’s fair value was 5-1. Either way, Cape My Style was significantly underpriced with an expected ROI of +245%. In the race, Synergized took command down the stretch after having been on the lead, while Cape My Style rallied from off the pace to get second in a photo.

There was an excellent opportunity to find value in race 3 at Parx today, an $8K Allowance race at 6f for three-year old fillies and mares. Two horses that were taking most of the money were #3 Peach Alley at 5-2 and #5 Love on Fire at 8-5. These prices were consistent with the horses speed projections, with Peach Allen having a 45.9% SPD win estimate according to the simulation and #5 Love on Fire 38.2%. The horse that was being ignored was the third selection, #4 Coupella, though while having the third highest SPD estimate at only 8.5% had the highest Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes at 26.8%. On that basis, the horse’s fair value was 3-1, but went off at 11-1. Even according to total win probability, Coupella fair value was about 6-1. Moreover, the horse had the lowest risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4%, meaning the horse has been  very consistent at winning. With an expected ROI of +75%, Coupella satisfied the criteria of being both an underlay and a horse with a reasonable chance to win as a third selection.