Here are the projections for today’s $1 mil. Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. Out of a field of sixteen horses, the program likes Brad Cox trained #3 Wells Bayou as the first choice with a total win probability of 28.62% versus 8-1 on the M/L. The horse finished a length behind Silver Prospector in the Southwest Stakes with a final time of 1:43.01 for 1 1/16 mi and previously won an allowance race at 1 mi. Wells Bayou has the highest SPD estimate in the field at 37.6% along with superior E1, E2 and COMP figures of 82.4%, 31% and 74%. He is also the classiest horse with a 14% Winning Percentage. Second is #10 Enforceable with a 15.6% win probability, who finished second to Mr. Monomy in the quickest of the Risen Star divisions on Feb. 15. Prior to that he won the Lecomte at the Fairgrounds on Jan. 18. Enforceable has the second highest SPD estimate at 28.8% and the strongest LP estimate at 27.6%. Weak, however, is his COMP at 1.2%, meaning that his simulated component speed estimates together do not stack up well against the other horses. The next three horses are Bill Mott trained #14 Modernist, winner of his last two, including the slower division of the Risen Star, with a 8.49% win probability, #6 Silver State with 7.84% and #9 Portos with 6.95%. Todd Pletcher trained Portos could be interesting after closing well from well off the pace to finish 3rd in the 1 1/8 mi. Withers at Aqueduct on Feb. 1. In sum, Wells Bayou’s superior speed data suggests he would have significant value at his 8-1 M/L price when his fair value is 3-1. None of the other horses rate well as far as speed, except Enforceable, whose component speed figures indicate weakness apart from LP. Click on the link in the lower right to see the projections in full-resolution.
Author: handicapwizard
Here are the results of the $350K G2 Azeri Stakes for four-year-old fillies and mares and the $1 mil. G2 Rebel Stakes for three-year-olds at Oaklawn yesterday. The program had the winner of the Azeri with its top selection in Serengetti Empress at 9-5 versus a win probability of 41.02%. In the Rebel, the program had it as a close contest between #3 Basin at 9-2, #1 Nadal at 4-5 and #4 Silver Prospector at 4-1, all with win probabilities of around 22%. Nadal won, while Basin finished 3rd. In terms of valuation, Nadal was a good choice to win because of relatively strong speed metrics, particularly E1, E2 and COMP, and low risk but was arguably overbet at 4-5. On the replay, it appeared #2 Excession cut-off both #4 Silver Prospector and #6 Three Technique coming out of the far turn, but the Stewards did nothing about it, not even review the race.
Azeri Stakes
Rebel Stakes
The program did very well at Parx today, having winners with first selections in five out of nine non-maiden races. Here are the results. The 4th race came down to a photo between #5 Eclipsed Moon and #6 Mickey T, with Mickey T winning. Those were the two horses in the exacta, which paid $39.40.
Race 2
Race 3
Race 4
Race 6
Race 7
Race 9
Today features two Kentucky Derby prep races for three-year olds, namely the $300k G3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the $400K G2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Downs. The Gotham Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the dirt, appears to be a wide open contest according to the program, with no horse receiving a win probability higher than 20%. The top selection is Attachment Rate at 9/2 on the M/L versus a 18.93% win probability, who, despite being a maiden, has the highest final speed estimate at 26.3% after recording a field-best 102 final speed figure in his last race. He also has the top LP estimate in the field at 38.8%. Next is Montaux Traffic at 6-1 on the M/L compared to a 17.66% win probability, who comes into the race with two wins in three starts, including a stakes win in the Jimmy Winfield at 7f at Aqueduct on Feb. 8. The third selection is Mischievous Alex at 3-1 on the M/L versus a 15.4% win probability, who won the Swale Stakes at 7f at Gulfstream on Feb. 1 and the Parx Juvenile at 7f at Parx on Nov. 5.
The Tampa Bay Derby has two proven horses in Chance It at 5-2 on the M/L and Sole Violate at 2-1 on the M/L, who will be battling it out. Chance It was the winner of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at 1 mi. at Gulfstream on Jan. 4, while Sole Violante won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. at Tampa Bay on Feb. 8. The speed advantage goes to Chance It with a 43.4% final speed estimate, thanks to three triple-digit final speed figures in his last three races. However, Sole Violate, is not far behind at 24.3% final speed estimate after posting final speed figures of 102 and 100 in his last two races. The M/L appears to be favoring Sole Violate because of late speed strength, showing a 35.2% LP estimate, which is favorable to the 1 1/16 mi. distance. The surprise of the race may be Unrighteous, the son of Violence, who with a final speed estimate of 15.8% is cheap at 20-1 on the M/L.
The Handicap Wizard finished on a strong note today at Gulfstream, having winners with its first selections in the last three races, including the $300K G2 Gulfstream Mile on dirt, the $200K G2 Mac Diamida Stakes on turf and the $400K G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on dirt. The program had the winners Mr. Freeze with a a 29.19% win probability at 5-2, Zulu Alpha with a 33.98% win probability at 1-1 and Ete Indien with a 27.99% win probability at 7-2. Ete Indien became the first selection after the scratch of #12 Chance It. Ete Indien beat the favorite #5 Dennis’ Moment at 6-5.
Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes
Mac Diamida Stakes
Fountain of Youth Stakes
Pro-Handicap Analytics 