Here are the projections for today’s $400K Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The results largely follow the order of the horses that rate best by speed, with #12 Chance It as the first selection at 7-2 on the M/L, following by #8 Ete Indien second at 8-1 and #6 As Seen On TV third at 9-2. The M/L favorite, however, is #5 Dennis Moment at 2-1, who had a bullet workout on this track on Feb. 23 of 0:48 for 4f. The horse’s preferred status is surprising, considering that his speed estimates are low compared to the field and he does not have a stellar Winning Percentage at only 8.6%. Dennis Moment won the G3 Iroquis at 1 1/16 mi. at Churchill on Sept. 14, but finished a distance 8th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in November at Santa Anita. He has not run again since then. Horses that offer value are Ete Indien because of his favorable speed estimates of 31.9% for SPD, 48.5% for E1, 28.9% for E2, 18.3% for LP and 31.7% for COMP. By speed, he appears to have a fair value around 5-2 or better. Another is Gear Jockey at 20-1 on the M/L, whose Winning Percentage is second highest at 15.7%, which would put him at 6-1 or 7-1 fair value. As a long shot, #7 Country Grammer at 15-1 has the strongest LP estimate at 38.1% and has shown good progression in terms of final speed figures from 72 in his first race to 94 in his last.
Author: handicapwizard
In the two main races for three-year olds this past weekend, the $250K Withers at Aqueduct and the $250K Holy Bull at Gulfstream, the program had the tri-fecta in the Holy Bull and a fourth selection won the Withers. At 5-1 #3 Max Player won the Withers with a total winning probability of 10.56%, which made it an overlay. The horse had strong late speed, as indicated by its 64% winning LP estimate. This is what happened in the race, with Max Player running down the field in the final stretch. The horse paid $12.80 for the win.
In the Holy Bull at Gulfsream, the race went according to projections. Thanks to a 48% Winning Percentage, #3 Tiz the Law at 6-5 had the highest winning probability in the field at 32.65%. Second was #4 Ete Indien at 23.95% and third #1 Toleda at 20%. That was the order of the tri-fecta, even though Toleda had lower odds than Ete Indien.
Who would have thought that today was as easy as betting on the Baffert Horse to win? That was how it went in the Pegasus World Cup at 1 1/8 mi. on dirt with #10 Mucho Gusto at 3-1 under the jockeying of Irad Ortiz Jr. upsetting #6 Higher Power at 5-2. The Handicap Wizard rated Higher Power as best in the field along with the market with a total winning probability of 15.38%, which made him an overlay. Mucho Gusto was a big overlay at 3-1 versus his winning probability of 7.98%. So why did the program miss Mucho Gusto? The main reason is that his speed estimates did not compare well against those of the other horses in the field, even though the horse posted three plus 100 final speed figures in his last starts. His consistency actually worked against him, which compressed the results of his final speed simulation into a tighter range, whereas Higher Power, War Story and Tax all projected better with more risk. Mucho Gusto did have the third highest Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, but it did not help him being under 10%. His last workout at Santa Anita on Jan. 16 was solid at 1:11 for 6f. As predicted in the preview, War Story did offer value in the race, going off even higher than expected at 15-1 versus his 10.9% total win probability. Had Joel Rosario not allowed the horse to get many lengths behind in the early stages of the race, War Story would have been in a better position to get place instead of having to settle for show. And another of the horses recommended in the preview, #8 Mr. Freeze, did better than expected by coming in second at 7-1.
On Saturday is the $3 Million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four year-olds and up. Following the scratches of two favorites in Omaha Beach and Spun to Run after the post positions were announced, the field is now at ten, but has only two G1 winners in #6 Higher Power and #4 Seeking the Soul. Consequently, the field is much weaker than it should be, and it shows in the model results, with none of the horses having a winning probability higher than 16%. The top selection is Higher Power at 15.95%, who has the highest winning SPD estimate at 24.3% and the second highest Winning Percentage at 17.6%. However, value is unlikely to be found with Higher Power after the scratches. Even though it has the highest WP in the field at 31.7%, the last race Seeking the Soul won was the G2 Stephen Foster at Churchill last June. Since then, he has not placed better than 4th, with two 6th place and one 7th place finish. In view of his win in the Harlan’s Holiday at 1 1/16 mi. at Gulfstream in December, #7 War Story deserves consideration as a win contender and is cheap according to his M/L price of 30-1. This has to do with his low Winning Percentage of 5.4%; however, his winning SPD estimate of 17.8% coupled with a low CV ratio of 6% indicates that his fair value is closer to 5-1 than 30-1. Additionally, he has the second highest LP in the field at 17.6%, which is favorable to the distance of this race. Otherwise, the COMP figures are showing #12 Bodexpress, #8 Mr. Freeze and #1 True Timber to have strength at 27.6%, 18.8% and 18.5% versus M/L odds of 30-1, 20-1 and 15-1, respectively. Bodexpress has done well at Gulfstream, placing 3rd in the Harlan’s Holiday and 2nd in the Florida Derby last year behind eventual Kentucky Derby Winner, Maximum Security. Mr. Freeze has hit the board in his last three graded stakes races, including a 3rd in the G1 Clark Stakes at Churchill in Nov. and a 2nd in the G2 Fayette Stakes at Keeneland in October, both at 1 1/8 mi. True Timber is similar to Mr. Freeze, in that he has also hit the board in his last three with all show finishes. including in the G1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct in December and in the G3 Bold Ruler at Belmont in October. However, True Timber is light in the LP category at only 5.9%, so it is unclear whether the horse can compete at the 1 1/8 mi. distance. In sum, Higher Power is the first choice in the race, thanks to his highest in the field SPD estimate of 24.3%, but he will be pricey at anything below 3-1. War Story offers better value, followed by Mr. Freeze and Bodexpress.
Oaklawn Park kicks off today with the $150K Jones Stakes—the first of three Kentucky Derby prep races at the track—run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The contest appears to be wide open, with no horse receiving higher than a 20% winning probability according to the program. The top selection is #2 Silver Prospector, who has the 2nd highest winning SPD estimate in the field at 33.8% and the second highest LP estimate at 36.4%. The horse also has the second highest Winning Percentage at 14.1%. However, given its 5-2 price on the M/L, Silver Prospector is on the expensive side. #6 Gold Street may well be the pick to click in this race with its 5-1 M/L price versus a total winning probability of 19.46%, making him a slight underlay. He has a higher winning SPD estimate at 38.4%, respectable E1 and E2 figures of 22.0% and 16.8% and a solid COMP estimate of 39.1%. The CV value of 15% can be excused, when he has improved in his last four races. #7 Shoplifted also deserves consideration, in view of his highest-in-the-field Winning Percentage of 25.6%. By that measure, he would be at fair value at 3-1, but his SPD estimate does not stack up as well to that of Silver Prospector and Gold Street. He has good consistency, though, with a CV ratio of only 4%, which is second lowest in the field after #6 Lynn’s Map. #9 Three Technique may be the best horse in the field after winning his last two. He is being undervalued in the model because of his last SPD of 81, but he won that $80K OC race at Aqueduct in November by four lengths. Three Technique has had bullet workouts in January.
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