Author: handicapwizard

In a surprise upset in the $100K G3 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream in race 10, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up, #5 War Story at 12-1 surged late to overtake the heavy favorite, #6 Bodexpress at 1-1, down the stretch to get the win. War Story was the top selection of the program with a total winning probability of 24.43%, underpinned by the highest final speed estimate in the field at 37.7% and the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 26.5%.  War Story paid $27.20 for the win. In total, the Handicap Wizard had winners in three out of five graded stakes races with its top selections at Gulfstream today, with this third win coming after Lady Island (3-1) in the 6th and Mitchell Road (3-5) in the 7th.

In the first graded stakes race at Gulfstream today, the $100K Sugar Swirl Stakes, run at 6f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares, the Handicap Wizard had the winner with its top selection of #4 Lady Island, who beat the live-odds favorite, #3 Bit of Both, at 9-5. Bolstered by a winning final speed estimate of 45.8%, Lady Island had a total winning probability of 24.61%, which was exactly how the horse went off at 3-1. In the race, the horse broke well from the gate and went wire-to-wire in a no contest. Lady Island paid $8.60 for the win.

After having winners in two of the previous three graded stakes races at Aqueduct, the Handicap Wizard did it again in the $250K Demoiselle Stakes in the 8th, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for two-year olds. Assigned a total winning probability of 25.42%, the program’s top selection, #12 Lake Avenue at 4-1, broke well out of the gate from the outside post to take the lead coming out of the first turn. She held on to beat the two favorites in the race, #5 Alandra and #2 Maedean, both at 5-2, winning by four lengths. Lake Avenue paid $10.80 for the win.

In race 4 at Gulfstream, the $110K Glass Slipper stakes, run at 1 mi. on the dirt for filies and mares, you would have done well by keying on SPD or the COMP metrics with #5 Cuddle Kitten at 8-5 and #2 Liza Star at 5-1, who ranked #1 and #2 in those categories. In the race, the horses broke well from the gate and ran together until around the turn, before Liza Star took the lead down the stretch and never looked back. Liza Star paid $12.40 for the win.

In the first graded stakes races at Aqueduct today, the $150K Winter Memories Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the Handicap Wizard had the winner with its top selection in #1 Feel Glorious (GB) at 8-5. The program had assigned the horse a total winning probability of 32.22%, which is close to where the she went off. In the race, Feel Glorious trailed the field while saving ground in the one path until the far turn, when she began to make her move. The horse had a burst of speed down the stretch, thanks to a 41.5% LP estimate, to overtake #11 Sorrentino Lemon to win by two lengths. Feel Glorious paid $5.40 for the win.