Tampa Premium Race Report, Wed., Dec 17, 2025

The Premium Race Report for Tampa Bay Downs has been completed and is ready for launch this Sat. It will be available for purchase on the Purchase page. The Report has been compiled and optimized from the back-testing of metrics in hundreds of races in 2025.

The Tampa Bay Downs report differentiates races by recognizing that sprint and route contests—and dirt and turf surfaces—behave very differently in how races are decided. Sprint races are evaluated with an emphasis on early race shape and the ability to stay involved through pressure, while route races are approached as longer-form contests where balance, efficiency, and sustained positioning matter more than raw early advantage. Likewise, dirt races are treated as more volatile and intent-driven, whereas turf races are analyzed as more rhythm-dependent and tactically structured. By adapting its interpretation to these distinct environments, the report reflects how Tampa races actually unfold, rather than applying a single generic model across all distances and surfaces.

Race 5 at Aqueduct, Sat., Dec. 13, 2025

The AI-enabled program had another nice result at Aqueduct today, this time in the 5th race, a $33K claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, with the exacta order correct with its Primary and Secondary selections of #9 Smileandsaycheese at 3-1 and Confabulation at 7-2. The $1 ex. paid $29.77 in a fairly wide open race with a ten horse field. The theoretical odds the program assigned the two horses were 3.7-1 and 3.9-1, close where they went off.

Race 2 at Aqueduct, Sat., Dec. 13, 2025

And in race 2 at Aqueduct, a $20K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds, the AI-enabled program had the winner with its first selection of #1 Floodlights at 5-2. The model odds were slightly less at 2.1-1. In the race, Floodlights withstood a hot pace, which had been projected (Floodlights ran the opening quarter in 23.04) to go wire-to-wire and win by two lengths. Floodlights paid $7.54 for the win.

Premium Racing Reports Now Available For AQU and GPX, Sat., Dec. 13, 2025

The Premium Racing Reports are now available for Aqueduct and Gulfstream for Sat., Dec. 13, 2025. See the “Purchase” page. Reports for Tampa Bay and the Fairgrounds are soon coming. Once again, the reports are track-customized and optimized for sprint and route distances and for dirt and turf surfaces. This approach gives Pro-Handicap Analytics a significant edge in accuracy over competitors who do not customize and account for the differences in dirt versus turf surfaces at different tracks.

Pro-Handicap Analytics does not treat all races the same. Sprint races and route races, dirt and turf events, are evaluated as distinct competitive environments, each with its own pace dynamics and performance demands. Instead of applying universal formulas with surface or distance “adjustments,” the system adapts how it interprets speed, pressure, and finishing strength based on the specific structure of the race. This allows the report to identify contenders not by raw numbers alone, but by how their running profiles actually fit the conditions they’re facing. The result is a race analysis that reflects reality on the track, not generic assumptions—producing clearer rankings, cleaner tickets, and fewer false favorites.