“It’s about getting things down to one number. Using the stats the way we read them, we’ll find value in players that no one else can see.” — Peter Brand, Moneyball
Since integrating AI into our processes more than two months ago, we have worked intensively to develop a handicapping product in PDF format tailored to specific tracks. The metrics are optimized to reflect each track’s unique signals across sprint and route races, and on both dirt and turf surfaces. This effort has required significant data-set building, back-testing, optimization, and debugging—the latter consuming at least a third of the time. Now, we are pleased to announce customized handicapping reports for the following tracks: BAQ, CDX, DMR, GPX, HAW, MON, SAR, and SAX, which will soon be made available.
The PDF report is designed as a professional handicapping sheet, transforming complex analytics into a structured and accessible format. Each race block is introduced with a shaded header identifying the track, date, race number, conditions, and distance, followed by an overview of pace shape and risk/chaos climate. Horses are ranked into Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary picks, each tier reflecting relative confidence and intended role in ticket construction. The Chaos picks highlight undervalued longshots that gain traction in high-variance conditions. Every selection is supported by concise narrative notes—whether it’s a sharp workout, strong early pace, proven late kick, or reliable jockey/trainer connections—ensuring the analysis is both transparent and actionable.
At the core of the approach are the model odds, representing fair pricing derived from thousands of Monte Carlo simulations. Metrics such as SPD, E1/E2, LP, COMP, and WP% are weighted and adjusted for surface, distance, and pace dynamics. Each horse’s simulated win probability is translated into fair odds, creating an objective benchmark against which to compare morning-line and live odds. This empowers bettors to instantly identify overlays, where the public undervalues a horse, and underlays, where the odds are too short relative to risk. By grounding every recommendation in quantified probability, the report avoids guesswork and emphasizes disciplined, data-driven value assessment.
A distinctive feature of the system is its turf-specific filtering, which ensures that turf races are analyzed with data tailored to their unique dynamics rather than blended dirt-turf figures. Horses with turf-only performance histories, pace tendencies, and breeding profiles are evaluated in isolation, eliminating the distortion that occurs when dirt metrics skew turf projections. This refinement is especially critical in turf sprints and routes, where late pace and stamina profiles carry greater weight than raw dirt speed. The result is sharper modeling and more accurate insights on surfaces that frequently produce chaotic betting outcomes.
The Chaos Index adds a further dimension by scoring the overall volatility of each race on a 0–5 scale. This measure accounts for the distribution of win probabilities, variance in horse performance metrics, and the likelihood of pace collapses or contested race shapes. Lower scores indicate orderly races where favorites are more likely to prevail, while higher scores highlight wide-open contests where surprises are more likely. Integrated into the layout, the Index helps guide strategy: tightening coverage in low-chaos races, and spreading wider in high-chaos spots where longshots can deliver outsized payouts. Together, the structured race blocks, model odds, turf filtering, and Chaos Index create a polished, professional-grade analysis tool that not only identifies likely winners but also teaches bettors how to align wagers with value, probability, and race-day dynamics.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 