All eyes today will be on race 11 at Churchill Downs this evening, the Breeders Cup Classic, featuring the best horses—three-year-old and up—from all over the world. They will be competing at 1 1/4 mi. on dirt for a $6 million dollar purse and boasting rights for horse-of-the-year. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Baffert trained West Coast based on high speed figures relative to the field and a stellar stakes record, including a 2nd place finish in the $16M Pegasus World Cup in January, when he lost to 2017 horse-of-the-year, Gun Runner, and another second place finish in the $10M Dubai World Cup in late March. Two other horses that are expected to contend are Accelerate, who also has early speed, and Mind Your Biscuits. Though regarded as an early presser, Mind Your Biscuits has the strongest late pace figures in the field. The program rates Collected high with a 11.25% win probability, but this mostly has to do with the horse’s 2017 campaign, in which he was dominant. Collected’s 2018 results have not been up to par compared to the horses above.

As a possible long-shot, there are reasons to like lightly raced Axelrod, in that he posted a career best 110 BRIS final figure his last-time out in the Pennsylvania Derby in September, only to come up a length short against prominent three-year old McKenzie out of the Baffert Barn. Axelrod has enough early speed to keep him near the pace, while showing the third best late-pace figures at 14.0% . Going by that metric alone would suggest that he is underpriced at 30-1 on the M/L. A breakdown of the speed figures by E1 and LP are visible in the Handicap Wizard’s soon-to-be released next version, previewed below for the first time. The TOP category signifies the combined results.

The Handicap Wizard had its mettle tested today at Belmont Park, which featured eight stakes races with purses of $150K and up. The program had four winners with first selections, including 2-1 Pat On the Back in the Empire Classic in the 9th (shown above), and another winner with a second selection in 5-1 Bankit in the $250K Sleepy Hollow in the 8th.

 

On the whole, the Handicap Wizard performed well on the Belmont card on Saturday by posting three winners, including Disco Partner in the $150K Belmont Turf Sprint and Complexity (in above photo) in the $500K Champaign Stakes for two-year olds. It picked the tri-fecta straight in the 4th race with Breaking the Rules, Classic Covey and Krewe Chief. In the 5th, 8th and 11th races, the HW’s second selection won. Of particular note was the 11th race, in which Saratoga won at 7-1 odds. The model’s first selection, Spa Treatment, came in second at 13-1. Only 0.50% separated the two in winning percentage in 23.55% versus 23.02% (see fourth row down). The $2 exacta paid $134.50. Among the eight non maiden races on the card, the HW had winners with 1st and 2nd selections in 6 out of 8. Dark Tricks won the first race at 37-1 and Have At It won the 9th at 11-1.

 

In keeping with Bob Baffert’s praise of him, McKinzie showed today that he is still one of the best three-year olds by winning the Pennsylvania Derby in no contest fashion. The top three horses in the model by winning estimate went off as the three live odds favorites, with McKinzie being the biggest underlay at 2-1, followed by Hofburg a close second at 5-2. Bravazo’s price was near fair value at 9-2. The final order was McKinzie 1st, Axelrod 2nd, Trigger Warning 3rd and Hofburg 4th.

After a six month lay-off due to an unspecified leg-injury, McKinzie out of the Baffert barn makes his long awaited return in the $1 million Pennsylania Derby for three-year olds at Parx this afternoon. Featuring a field of ten, including show finisher in the G1 Traverse and place finisher in the G1 Haskell, Bravazo, the Handicap Wizard has the race a close contest between Hofburg, who was winner of the $100K Curlin at Saratago in late July, McKinzie and Bravazo.

Commenting on McKinzie, Baffert said this week, “He was like, the best 3-year-old in the country. He has shown me how good a horse he is in the mornings. We are still very high on him. Hopefully, he will break well and we will see if he still has it.” For his part, Wayne Lukas, the trainer of Bravazo, had the following to say about his horse: “If one horse is going to travel he’d be the one, he’s traveled more than anybody. He’s traveled a lot. He’s been a picture of consistency really, looking at his races he’s danced every dance, but he’s gotten stronger and heavier and I think more focused. I think he’ll run a big one. We’re going through the same thing like Will Take Charge. He made all the dances too. I look for him to run a bang up race, but I don’t by any means think this is an easy race for him. It’s very competitive. It turned out tough, but every time you put up a million dollars they’ll show up.”

The model is giving a slight edge to Hofburg because of speed, while Bravazo has the highest winning percentage coming in.