Race 5 at Santa Anita on 2/9

The 5th race at Santa Anita today demonstrated as well as any race the value of the balanced approach of the Handicap Wizard. In a five horse field of four-year olds and upward, Dukes Up at 5-2 defeated two favorites over 1 1/16 mi. on the main track, including Saint Dermot at 9-5 and Southern Freedom at 7-5. Despite not having the most speed in the race, with only a 19% probability to win in that category versus 32% and 34% of the other horses, Dukes Up’s superior winning percentage (39%) carried him home to victory. It goes to show that speed is not everything, and that winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, can more than compensate.

 

 

Previous Results

The Handicap Wizard had Futile (25-1) as its top choice in today’s (Jan 12) running of the $125K Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn. In a competitive 12 horse field, which included Untrapped, Dazzling Gem, Sticksstatelydude and Shotgun Cowboy, Futile led nearly the whole way, only to be edged out by a late charging Sonneteer, who was also 25-1.

The Handicap Wizard had Lead By Example as its top choice in the 5th race ($31K Clm. at 1/16 mi. on turf) at Gulfstream today on Jan. 20. Paying $14.60, the horse had a 45% winning estimate by speed and had a 23% probability to win overall.

 

 

Two races later in the 7th at Gulfstream, the $150,000 Sunshine Million Turf Stakes (1 1/16 mi on turf), the Handicap Wizard predicted Galleon Mast (6-5) to win. The horse had a combined winning estimate of 36% and a speed estimate of 45%. Paid $4.60.