The $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland may be the most interesting of the three prep races today, because of the large field and the return of several former graded stakes winners, including Good Magic, Flameaway and Quip, with the latter being the surprise winner of the Tampa Bay Derby at 19-1 odds. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Good Magic’s class in this race, who with his wins in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and Champaign Stakes as a two-year old and his 3rd place result in the Fountain of Youth as a three-year old put him heads above the rest, despite speed threats from Blended Citizen, Flameaway and Machismo. For second and third the Handicap Wizard is calling it a close contest between between Blended Citizen and Flameaway, with each receiving about a 17% winning estimate.

This Saturday features three Kentucky Derby prep races and a number of key match-ups that will determine who gets to run for the roses on the first Saturday in May. In the $750K Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Enticed will see if he can repeat his win in the Gotham Stakes from a month ago, which was his best performance yet as a three-year old. Enticed will have to contend with Old Time Revival and Firenze Fire, who finished 2nd and 4th in the Gotham, and with Vino Rosso, the third-runner up in the Sam F. Davis. Among the other horses, Evaluator may pose a challenge for having won and finished a close 2nd in graded stakes company at the 1 mi. distance. The Handicap Wizard is predicting a fairly substantial advantage in this race by Enticed with a 30% estimated winning percentage at roughly 2/1 odds value. The Gotham Runner-ups are predicted second and third, with Old Time Revival receiving a 21% winning estimate and Firenze Fire a 17% probability.

This Saturday features the latest running of the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. Comprised of a field of nine, including four graded-stakes winners, the race is sure to be a competitive one, with the horses vying for a place in the Kentucky Derby. Of the last five Kentucky Derby winners, three went through South Florida en route to winning the roses at Churchill. After a seven week layoff, Pletcher trained, Audible, returns to dirt after romping in the G2 Holy Bull Stakes on this same track in late February, when he went 1 1/16 mi. in 1:41.92. Contesting Audible will be the Fountain of Youth Stakes winner, Promises Unfulfilled, a son of Shackleford and Dale Romans’ trained horse, who pulled off an upset at 18-1 against good company in Strike Power, winner of the G3 Swale Stakes, who also is in the this race. On the back of a second place finish in the Sam F. Davis stakes to Flameaway, Catholic Boy will be reaching out to 1 1/8 mi. again, a distance at which he won the G2 Remsen as a two-year old in December. Other notable horses running are Storm Runner, another Dale Romans trained horse, who ran well enough to win a $75K allowance race  at 1 1/16 mi. in Feb., and Mississippi, who was second to Storm Runner, in his last race. The Handicap Wizard is calling the race very close between Audible, Catholic Boy, Strike Power, Mississippi and Promises Fulfilled, who are all with 4% from one another in terms of  probabilities, with winning estimates between 16% and 20%. Audible is a slight favorite but expensive compared to M/L of 9/5.

The $1,000,000 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds today is set to test the endurance of a strong field of ten at 1 1/8 mi. In post one, Bravazo hopes to repeat his performance in the Risen Star Stakes last month, when he edged out Snapper Sinclair in a tough duel down the stretch. Bravazo will have Gary Stevens riding, while Jose Ortiz will be aboard Snapper Sinclair out of post seven. Jockey, Kent Desormeux, will be returning to his home state to ride My Boy Jack out of post nine, who won the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in impressive fashion by 4 1/2 lengths on Feb. 19. After winning his first two races, Noble Indy had a third place finish in his first stakes race in the Risen Star, behind Snapper Sinclair and Bravazo; he will be looking to build on that effort with John Valezquez in the saddle. The sleeper in the race is Dark Templar, who has shown an affinity for the Fair Grounds track, where he has not finished worse than 3rd there in his last three, while winning his last. Florent Geroux will be riding the son of Tapit, who certainly has the pedigree to go the 1 1/8 mi. The Handicap Wizard is signaling this will be a close race, favoring My Boy Jack slightly over Bravazo, followed by Snapper Sinclair.