On paper, the $900K Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park this Saturday appears to be a race that will be decided by whether Baffert trained, Solomini, after a three-month layoff can regain the form that propelled him to finish no worse than second in three G1 races toward the end of last year, including a win in the Los Alamos Futurity in December, in which he defeated McKenzie by ¾ of a length. Other than Solomini, Sporting Chance and Combatant, there is not a lot of class in this race. Sporting Chance has one G1 victory, coming in the Hopeful Stakes last September at Saratoga, albeit at 7f. The horse finished 3^rd his last time out in the G3 Southwest Stakes in February, when he was beaten by 7 lengths. Son of Scat Daddy, Combatant, has been competitive in his last three starts in stakes company, getting three 2^nd place finishes, including one in the Southwest. But his only win was in his maiden race at Churchill last October. As the second favorite, Pletcher trained, Magnum Moon, is making his third start and the second at two turns, after winning his first two races.  If there is going to be a surprise in the race, it may be with Title Ready in post one, who has two victories in his last three races, including a win by nearly four lengths in his last at the same 1 1/16 mi. distance as the Rebel. Another horse, long-shot, Pryor, has shown good progression in his four starts, winning his maiden in his last at 1 mi. at Oaklawn by 6 lengths, in which he went wire-to-wire. With a 41% winning estimate, the Handicap Wizard is picking Solomini to win, followed by Magnum Moon and Title Ready.

Having the horses that are number #1 and #2 in the Kentucky Derby futures wagering both entered, the $400K San Felipe Stakes at San Anita is shaping up to be a fireworks show. Out of post one, Bolt d’Oro is making his fifth start, with two G1 victories already under his belt, including a lights-out performance in the Front Runner last October at San Anita, when he won by almost 8 lengths over 1 1/16 mi. Bolt d’Oro will have his hands full with McKinzie in post 4, who put in his best effort so far in the G3 Sham Stakes at San Anita in early January, clocking at 1:36.58 for the mile in a three-length victory. Race announcer, Michael Wrona, aptly described the performances as “domineering”. The one question for the horse is what his form will be after a two-month layoff. The Handicap Wizard gives the edge to McKinzie, thanks to a substantial speed advantage, while Bolt d’Oro is compensated by the higher winning percentage. Post time for race 6 is 4:53 p.m. PST.

With a field of ten horses, the $400K Tampa Bay Derby at 1 1/6 mi. features a rematch of two contenders in the Sam F. Davis Stakes from a month ago. Flameaway, the son of Scat Daddy and a Mark Casse trained colt, is one. He defied expectations last time out by defeating heavy favorite, Catholic Boy, in a thrilling finish, showing the grit that his sire was known for. The other is son of Curlin, Vino Rosso, who surged at the end, only to come up a length and half short for third. Compared to Flameaway, who now has seven races under his belt, Pletcher trained, Vino Rosso, will be making only his 4th start, with this being the 2nd at the 1 1/16 mi. distance. Complicating the picture is the entree of World of Trouble, who contrary to his name has done nothing wrong in his first three starts, having two wins and one place finish. In his last effort, he romped by 13 lengths to win the $125K Pasco at Tampa, even at the shorter distance of 7f. In assessing the horses, the Handicap Wizard slightly favors World of Trouble, due to a slight speed edge, though Flameaway ranks highest in winning percentage. Their implied odds are essentially a toss-up at 3-1, followed by Vinno Rosso at 7-1. Post time for race 11 is 5:20 p.m. EST.

In terms of Kentucky Derby prep races, this weekend may be one for the “chalks”, with some solid Grade 1 winners set to take the stage. The $300K Gotham Stakes has one in Free Drop Billy, who came in second in the Holy Bull Stakes last month to Audible, who himself ran a very quick 1:41.91 for 1 1/16 mi. on dirt at Gulfstream. In the Kentucky Derby futurers wagering, Audible at 13-1 is currently third, behind McKinzie at 9-1 and Bolt’ d’Oro at 7-1. Passing on the Fountain of Youth Stakes last weekend, Dale Romans trained, Free Drop Billy, is the favorite in the Gotham according to the Handicap Wizard, with implied odds around 3-1. The horse has an edge in speed, while ranking close to the top in winning percentage after winning the G1 Breeders Futurity last October over the same distance of 1 1/16 mi. Romans has called Free Drop Billy a “versatile, push button horse”, who should have no trouble cutting back to the 1 mi. distance. Post-time for race 10 at Aqueduct is 5:42 p.m. EST.