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The Grey program had the winner with its first selection of #5 Sierra Leone at 9-5 in the $1 mil G1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga today. Facing a tough field, including two Breeders Cup winners in White Abarrio and Fierceness, Sierra Leone made a wide move around the far turn and accelerated down the stretch to defeat longshot, #3 Highland Falls at 13-1, in a race that did not go as expected at all in terms of the second and third place finishers. Another long shot, #6 Disarm at 46-1, finished 3rd while White Abarrio at 4-1 finished fourth. Sierra Leone paid $5.90 for the win. To see the images in high resolution, click on the image and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Scroll down and click on the “full-size” link in the center.

The Grey Program had another good result in the 7th, a $75K OC at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds, having the the exacta order correct with the first two selections of #1 Hold My Bourbon at 4-1 and #3 Echo Again at 4-1. The final odds were close to the theoretical odds of 7-2 and 9-2. In the race, Hold My Bourbon went wire-to-wire in the win, holding off a late bid from from Echo Again. Hold My Bourbon paid $9.50 for the win while the $1 exa. paid $18.30.

The Turf Program had a nice result in the 4th at Saratoga, a $75K OC at 5 1/2f on the turf for three-year-olds and up, having the winner with its first selection of #5 Run Curtis Run at 5-2. The horse had a total win probability of 21.18%, converting to theoretical odds of 7-2. Run Curtin Run projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 40.3% and also first in LP with a win estimate of 51.5%. Its’ LP strength was decisive in the race. Down the stretch, Run Curtin Run shot through a gap on the inside of the track and continued to accelerate to win by a landslide. Run Curtin Run paid $7.50 for the win.

Here are the projections for today’s G1 $1 Mil. Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The program has #5 Sierra Leone as its first selection with a total win probability of 18.49%, translating to theoretical odds of 4-1. The compares to 2-1 on the M/L. Sierra Leone projects second in final speed behind Skippylongstocking with a win estimate of 25.5% while having the highest “in the money” win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 25.3%.