One of the keys to using Pro-Handicap Wizard software effectively is understanding percentages, including the percentages of the individual components like LP, and playing those percentages when they give an advantage. In the 3rd race at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race a 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, #1 Holder Close stood out because of its 61.5% (3-5 equivalent strength) win estimate in LP along with having a solid 27.0% SPD win estimate while being priced at fair value or even a discount (relative LP) at 7-2. In the race, Holder Close accelerated around the far turn and then catapulted past the favorite #5 Dialithic at 3-5. Holder Close paid $9.40 for the win.
The program had some excellent results yesterday at both Parx and Churchill. At Parx in the 1st race, a $12.5K claiming race at 6 1/2f on the dirt for three-year-olds, the program had the winner with its first selection of #4 Problems Around at 5-1. The horse had a a total win probability of 34.48%, translating to theoretical odds of 9-5. Problems Around projected 1st in final speed with a win estimate of 46.3% along with having a COMP value of 58.7%. The horse’s risk was elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 12.80% but so was the risk of the other horses in this race. In the race, Problems Abound went wire to wire in the win, paying $12.00.
In race 7 at Churchill, a $20K Allowance race at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds fillies and mares, the program’s 3rd selection, #1 Abitibi, won at 20-1. The horse projected 2nd in final speed with a win estimate of 25.2% (3-1 equivalent strength) while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.63%. The horse was able to maintain its recent good form and win at a big price with a total win probability of 12.27% or 7-1 theoretical odds. Abitibi paid $27.58 for the win.
After yesterday’s Belmont Stakes, there is no doubt who the best three-year-old in the country is: Sovereignty. The horse made it look easy in the Belmont Stakes, quietly stalking mid pack before launching down the final stretch to defeat Journalism by three. For an instant, Journalism took the lead coming out of the far turn but Sovereignty took up the challenge to defeat his rival once again in a thriller. The program had the tri-fecta and superfecta horses among its top three and top four selections. Sovereignty likely benefited from the five week layoff whereas Journalism was handicapped with only three weeks turnaround from the Preakness Stakes, a race in which he went all out to win coming from behind at the wire.
Today at Belmont at Saratoga is the $2 million Belmont Stakes, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. As the third leg of the Triple Crown, the race features the best three-year-olds in the country, including Kentucky Derby winner, #7 Journalism, Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, #2 Sovereignty, Kentucky Derby third place finisher, #6 Baeza, and Wood Memorial winner, #3 Rodriguez. The program has #7 Journalism at 8-5 on the M/L as its first selection with a total win probability of 32.36% (2-1 theoretical odds). Journalism projects first in final speed with a 46.1% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 27.9%. Second is Third is #6 Baeza with a total win probability of 17.97% (9-2 theoretical odds). Baeza projects 2nd in final speed with a win estimate of 31.32% while having elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 10.98%. Third is #2 Sovereignty with a total win probability of 17.24% (7-2 theoretical odds). Sovereignty is the class in the race with a win percentage of 36% following his win the Kentucky Derby and second place finish in the Florida Derby. Fourth is #3 Rodriguez with a total win probability of 11.98% (7-1 theoretical odds. Rodriguez projects third in final speed with a 13.4% win estimate while having a COMP value of 28.3%, indicating strength on a component level in the aggregate relative to the field. In the final analysis, Journalism appears in good form for a rematch with Sovereignty after the former’s thrilling come from behind win in the Preakness. The former horse projects first in final speed while also having a strong COMP 55.4% (equating to 4-5 strength). Journalism is coming off only three weeks rest whereas Sovereignty sat out the Preakness and has been off 35 days. With the track expected to be muddy today, Sovereignty may have the edge between the two horses after having defeated Journalism on the wet track by a length at the Kentucky Derby. Baeza is the second selection because of his final speed projection of 31.3%, but the horse finished behind Journalism and Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Bob Baffert Trained, Rodriguez, is in a position to be the spoiler today on the back of his win in the Wood Memorial when he recorded a 105 final speed figure. The horse did not race in the first two legs of the Triple Crown because of injury. The final selections are #7 Journalism, #6 Baeza, #2 Sovereignty and #3 Rodriguez.
The Turf Program had an excellent result in the 7th race at Belmont at Saratoga today, the $200K G2 Intercontinental Stakes at 5 1/2 f on the turf for four-year-olds fillies and mares, having the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #6 Pipsy at 5-1 and #2 Future is Now at 2-1. Pipsy had a total win probability of 24.02% (3-1 equivalent odds) while Future is Now had a total win probability of 19.66% (4-1 equivalent odds). The horses projected 2nd and first with win estimates of 29.8% (5-2 strength) and 25.5% (3-1 strength). In the race, Pipsy showed early speed and then dug in down the stretch to hold off Future is Now. Pipsy paid $12.40 for the win and the $2 exacta paid $60.50.
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