The program had a nice result today in the 6th at Churchill, a $45K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds and up, having the winner with its first selection of #9 Appeal Denied at 9-2. The horse had a total win probability of 26.8%, translating to odds of 5-2. Appeal Denied projected strongly in E1 and E2 with estimates of 86.2% and 69.4%, fitting well the 6f distance, while having the highest win percentage in the field at 22.9% (about 3-1 equivalent strength). In the race, the favorite, #1 Mr. Puk, led through the opening quarter mile, which was run in a blistering 21.76, while Appeal Denied stalked just behind him and to the outside in second position. Appeal Denied then gained on Mr. Puk around the far turn before taking the lead down the stretch. The horse went on for the win and paid $11.98.
On Saturday is the $5 mil G1 Kentucky Derby, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirty for three-year-olds. The race features the best three-year-olds in the country, including the favorite and Santa Anita Derby winner, Journalism, Wood Memorial Winner, Rodriguez, who is trained by Bob Baffert (Baffert has two horses in this race with Citizen Bull), Louisiana Derby winner, Tiztastic, Arkansas Derby Winner, Sandman, Fountain of Youth winner, Sovereignty, and Rebel Stakes winner, Coal Battle. The Florida Derby winner, Tappan Street, is out of the Kentucky Derby with a fractured leg. The program has #8 Journalism as the first selection with a total win probability of 20.93%, translating to theoretical odds of 7-2. That’s very close to where the horse is on the M/L at 3-1. Journalism projects first in final speed and late pace with 45.5% and 51.9% win estimates. Both those figures indicate about 1-1 strength against the field. Journalism’s win percentage of 5.1% is average for this field while his Coefficient of Variance of 8.68% indicates average risk. The second selection is #5 American Promise at 30-1 on the M/L. The horse has a total win probability of 10.36%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-1. Thanks to his recent win in the Virginia Derby, American Promise projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 23.3% (3-1 equivalent strength) and has a 17.6% COMP (5-1 equivalent strength). However, the horse has a low win percentage of only 1.8%, explaining his high M/L odds. The third selection is #19 Chunk of Gold at 30-1 on the M/L with a total win probability of 9.94%, converting to odds of 9-1. Chunk of Gold looks to be the speed in the race with E1 and E2 win estimates of 38.8% and 36.4%. The horse finished second in his last three races, all of which have been graded stakes. Most recently he finished behind Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby. That race saw a fast pace, with the first half and three-quarters of a mile being run in 46:84 and 1:11:03. Through that pace scenario, Chunk of Gold was fifth and then fourth going into the far turn before he rallied up for second in the final sixteenth. Fourth is #3 Final Gambit at 30-1 on the m/l with a total win probability of 8.31%, translating to theoretical odds of 11-1. Final Gambit projects second best in late pace with a win estimate of 41.8%, only behind Journalism’s 51.9%.
In the final analysis, Journalism is the deserving favorite at 3-1 and will likely see 2-1, 9-5 or even lower odds by post time. When it comes to the rest of the placements, that is where it becomes tricky. American Promise’s theoretical odds of 9-1 are mostly based on the horse’s speed projections but the horse is stepping way up in class against the toughest competition in the country. With a CV value of 11.66%, American Promise has elevated risk as a second selection where his true theoretical odds are higher than 9-1 and probably closer to 15-1. Chunk of Gold will have to run a lot better than he has while avoiding past mistakes of chasing too hot of pace. On the other hand, discounted speed horses tend to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby and so Chunk of Gold certainly should be in the conversation after three second place finishes against graded stakes competition. Final Gambit projects to be flying late down the stretch, but, in breaking from post three, the horse will not have the luxury of running on the outside like he did in the Jeff Ruby Stakes. The final selections are #8 Journalism, #5 American Promise, #19 Chunk of Gold, #3 Final Gambit. If Citizen Bull as the class in the race (10.6% win percentage) regains the form he had as a two-year-old, of which he has shown some signs in his pre-Derby workouts at Churchill (6f at 1:12.40), he will be a serious contender to win along with Journalism. To see the preview in full resolution, click on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.
The program got off to a good start on Churchill’s opening day in the first race, a $16K claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds, having the winner with its first selection, #5 Show Time, at 7-2. The horse had a total win probability of 25.53%, translating to theoretical odds of 5-2. Show Time projected strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 95.9% and 80.% while having the second highest win percentage at 18.5%. Additionally, the Show Time had a exceedingly high COMP value of 83.9%, indicating significant strength for the horse on a component level in the aggregate (E1+E2+LP) in the simulation. In the race, Show Time broke well and stalked behind #7 Couperin at 10-1 through the opening mile before accelerating along the rail and taking the lead. The order continued this way until the finish with Show Time winning by a length. Show Time paid $9.42 for the win.
In race 5, the program had another good result, having the exacta horses among the second and third selections with #1 Fun to Run at 2-1 and #5 United Forever at 5-1. The $1 exacta paid $17.76. #10 Lady Riley was a false favorite because of its high risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 16.77%.
The program had a nice result in the 10th race at Parx today, a $25K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, having the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #9 Shetalkstomuch at 2-1 and #6 Love to Eat at 11-1. Love to Eat led coming out of the far turn but Shetalkstomuch rallied from off the pace to catch Love to Eat in time. The #1 ex. paid #22.60.
Another good result was in the 7th at Aqueduct, a $76K allowance race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its firstion selection, #6 Friend of the Devil at 4-1, who won against two favorites. Friend of the Devil had a total win probability of 36.76%, translating to odds of 8-5. The horse projected first in final speed with a total win estimate of 66.1% (3-5 equivalent strength on turf) while having the second highest win percentage at 24.2%. Notably, the horse only had one set of data points on turf but that was enough to see its strength. Friend of the Devil paid $10.20 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 