In the $1.25 mil G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland yesterday, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, the program had the tri-fecta horses among its top four selections. The winner was #6 Burnham Square at 4-1, followed by #5 East Avenue at 9-2 and #1 River Thames at 3-1 . The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $85.69.
Today at Aqueduct is the $750K G2 Wood Memorial, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Withers winner, #2 Captain Cook, RB Lewis runner-up, #1 Rodriguez, Gotham runner-up, #5 Sand Devil, and Tampa Bay Derby third-place finisher, #6, Hill Road. The program is favoring #2 Captain Cook at 3-1 with a total win probability of 23.56%, equating to theoretical odds of 3-1. Captain Cook projects 1st in final speed with a win estimate of 46% (6-5 equivalent strength) while having average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.73%. The second selection is #6 Hill Road at 4-1, who has a total win probability of 19.99%. This converts to theoretical odds of 4-1. Hill Road is the class in the race with the highest win percentage at 21.9% (7-2 equivalent strength) and projects strongly in LP with a win estimate of 69.2%, suiting the 1 1/8 mi. distance. Third is #5 Sand Devil with a total win probability of 18.64%, equating to theoretical odds of 4-1. Sand Devil projects 2nd in final speed with a 18.9% win estimate while having a 54.6% COMP value, indicating 4-5 equivalent strength on a component level in the aggregate in the simulation. The horse has low risk with a CV of 0.00%. Fourth is #12 Omaha Omaha with a total win probability of 8.64%, converting to odds of 11-1. The horse projects 3rd in final speed with a win estimate of 15.9%. In the final analysis, Captain Cook appears to have the upper hand in this race with its SPD win estimate of 46%, who has won his last two races at Aqueduct. The M/L favorite, #1 Rodrigquez, does not look like a favorite, who has a total win probability of just 3.55%. Rodrquez has been assigned the 5-2 M/L because the horse is trained by Bob Baffert, who has done well in the past shipping his horses east, and because Rodriguez finished second to Citizen Bull in the RB Lewis Stakes. Hill Road appears to be a strong contender because of his superior LP estimate as well as for being the class in the race. Sand Devil is another horse worth considering for his high COMP value, indicating better than 1-1 strength against this field while having low risk. The horse has hardly done anything wrong with three wins and one place in four starts. The place came in the Gotham against Flood Zone, who finished first. The final selections are #2 Captain Cook, #6 Hill Road, #5 Sand Devil and #12 Omaha Omaha. Rodriguez did not make the cut.
The program had an excellent result in the 4th at Hawthorne today, a $5K claiming race for three-year-olds and up at 5f, with its first two selections of #5 Purple Octopus at 4-5 and #4 El Mucho at 13-1. That was the order of the exacta but reversed with El Mucho on top. Both horses had to pass #6 Cupid’s War in the stretch, who led coming out of the far turn. El Mucho paid $29.60 for the win and the #1 exacta paid $38.30.
The program had an excellent result in the 10th race at Oaklawn, the $500K G3 Oaklawn Mile, with its first and second selections of #3 Banishing at 8-5 and #8 Saudi Crown at 4-5. That was the order of the exacta (3-8) with the statistically superior horse outrunning the pool favorite. In the race, Saudi Crown and Banishing led one two until the far turn when Banishing made an outside move and was able to come even with Saudi Crown. Heading down the stretch, stretch the two horses dueled side by side until Banishing put away the gritty Saudi Crown inside the final sixteenth.
Another major race today is the $1 mil. G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Fountain of Youth Winner, #11 Sovereignty at 8-5 on the M/L, Holy Bull runner-up, #11 Tappan Street at 5-1, Rebel runner-up, #8 Madaket Road at 7-2. Following the M/L favorite, #11 Sovereignty is the first selection with a total win probability of 28.69%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projects 2nd in final speed with a 36.9% win estimate but has a dominating LP win estimate of 92.6%, suggesting that he will thrive at the 1 1/8 mi. distance. Second is #8 Madaket Road with a 23.78% total win probability, translating to theoretical odds of 23.78%. The horse projects significant early speed with E1 and E2 win estimates of 72.9% and 42.0% and has a high COMP value of 65.8%, indicating that the horse projects 3-5 strength on the component level in the aggregate against the field. Third is #9 Tappan Street with a total win probability of 17.35%. That equates to theoretical odds of 9-2. Tappan Street projects first in final speed with a 39.2% win chance. Fourth is #1 Neoequos with a total win probability of 9.77%. What stands out in this race is Sovereignty’s dominate late speed versus, as reflected in his LP estimate, versus Madaket Road’s high COMP value, which suggests that will have the reserve energy to sustain him beyond the early speed in E1 and E2 of 1 mi. Madaket Road’s threat is that he will run away from the field early on and coast on to victory before Sovereignty can catch him. The final selections are #11 Sovereignty, #8 Madaekt Road, #11 Tappan Street, #1 Neoequos.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 