In tomorrow’s $500K G2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, the program is favoring #9 Senor Buscador with a total win probability of 42.94%, translating into theoretical odds of 6-5. The horse projects first in final speed with a 46.1% (along with a relatively low CV of 5.92%) while also having the highest Win Percentage in the field at 67.6%, thanks to his win earlier this year in the $20 mil. Saudi Cup. Most recently, he finished fifth in the Breeders Cup Classic at Del Mar in early November. If Senor Buscador is removed as a selection, then the race appears to favor #5 Mullikin and #1 Book’em Danno due to their final speed projections. #7 Locked has some value at 6-1 on the M/L because of his 24.4% win percentage (3-1 equivalent) after Senor Buscador’s removal. This is done because of his high win percentage, which distorts the overall picture.

We give a shout-out today to owner and Handicap Wizard user, Vito Cipriano, whose horse, #3 Hatch, came in second today in the 2nd race at Aqueduct, a $50k Allowance at 6 1/2 f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. Going off at 18-1, Hatch had theoretical odds of 6-1 because of decent SPD and E1 and E2 win estimates of 15.5%, 15.1% and 23.6%. The horse also had a fairly strong COMP value of 23.7% (projecting almost 3-1 strength). In the race, Hatch made a five-wide move wide around the far turn and then came up well on the inside behind #4 Beaver State to finish second. The horse paid $12.00 for the place.

The Turf Program had a very good result in the 8th race at Gulfstream, a $25K optional claiming race on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #8 Nineteenthamendment at 8-1 with a total probability of 33.81%, translating into theoretical odds of 2-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 49.8% (1-1 equivalent) while having relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.41%. Additionally, the horse had the highest win percentage in the field at 24.2% (3-1 equivalent). Nineteethamendment went the distance in the win, paying $18. This was a case where the horse was completely mis-evaluated by the pool when both her SPD projection and Win Percentage indicated 3-1 strength or better.

The program had a very nice result in the 10th at Gulfstream, a $75K Handicap at 5 1/2 f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, with its first selection of #10 Smithwick’s Spice, who won at 15-1. The horse had a total win probability of 20.82%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2. Importantly, the horse projected fairly strongly in both E1 and E2 with win estimates of 22.3% and 42.9% while having a strong COMP estimate of 35.8% (2-1 equivalent). Where the pool really misevaluated the horse was with win percentage, which with a value of 23.95 equated to about 3-1 strength against this field. Again, the horse went off at 15-1. In the race, Smithwick’s Spice went gate to wire, digging in and holding off #2 Doctor Jeff at 2-1. The horse paid $33.00 for the win. The program also had the tri-fecta order correct (8-2-3), with a $0.50 tri-fecta paying $119.60.

The program did very well today in races at Aqueduct. In two out of the five non-maiden races (6th and 8th), the program had the exacta order reversed. The $1 exacta in the 6th paid $13.90 and in the 8th $25.50. A $1 ex. box strategy for those races would have returned 294%.

6th – $16K clm at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up

8th – $10K clm at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up.

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