Ahead of the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds this weekend, the Track-IQ framework had an excellent result in the 3rd race today, having the exacta order correct with its Primary and Secondary selections of #3 Donnegal Moonshine at 7-2 and #2 High Stakes Hustler at 4-1. That was near their theoretical odds of 3-1 and 4-1. This was also a race in which there was a heavy favorite in #4 Sir Liam at 3-2. Donnegal Moonshine paid $9.40 for the win and the $1 ex. paid $21.70.

In relation to the additional notes on Track-IQ that were just released, a good example of how Field Risk can be used to one’s advantage was seen in the 8th race at the Fairgrounds, a $55K Alw at 1 1/16 on the turf. The Field Risk of only 5.38% indicated high confidence in the Primary/Secondary/Tertiary picks as whole, including #8 Faber at 7-1 versus 4.3-1 theoretical odds. According to the metrics, #8 Faber was a gift at 7-1 in having a 76% SPD , 23% E2, and 28% LP win probabilities (projected in the simulation), in addition to low Coefficient of Variance of 4.0%. So in this race with the low Field Risk, expanded win coverage to Faber as the Secondary choice at 7-1 was absolutely warranted and turned out to be profitable. Here taking low risk with a relatively high win probability of about 19% (Faber’s 4.3-1 odds) was met with high reward. The horse paid $16.60 for the win.

As a way to help users and provide them additional notes on how to use and navigate the Track-IQ Reports, a link to a notes document has been posted below the track selections on the Purchase Page. The notes explain the Track-IQ’s theoretical approach to horse handicapping in more detail and offer specific strategy tips on evaluating races and selecting horses. The notes can also be found below.

Click to access frameworkforlongtermadvantage.pdf

In one of the graded stakes race at Santa Anita this afternoon, the $100K Clockers Corner Handicap in the 7th race at 6f on the turf for four-year-olds and up, the Track-IQ program had the winner with its Primary selection of #2 Yellow Card at 3-1 versus about 7-5 theoretical odds. The odds favorite was #1 Sumter at 4-5. The race unfolded with an extremely hot early pace, as the opening quarter went in 21.71. Yellow Card settled patiently at the back of the field down the backstretch before launching a wide bid around the far turn. He gained momentum turning for home and surged to the lead midway down the stretch, drawing clear to win. Yellow Card paid $8.40 to win.

The Track-IQ report for Tampa Bay had the winner of the $250K Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 mi on the dirt with its Primary selection of #6 Renegade at 6-5 (versus theoretical odds of 5-2). The horse projected 2nd in final speed but had the highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, in the field at 18%. Though the horse had variance, it was good variance in that the horse had increased its last two final speed figures dramatically. Normally, horses are penalized for variance with their theoretical odds but not for having positive trend variance, which is typical of young three-year-old horses who are still growing and maturing.

In the early going at Gulfstream, the Track-IQ report had a nice result in the 2nd, a $6250 claiming race at 1 mi on the dirt, with its Secondary and Primary selection being the exacta order at big odds. #3 Mr. Scatter at 10-1 (versus 5-1 theoretical odds) came flying late to catch Lou the Body at 2-1 (versus 2-1 theoretical odds) at the wire. The $1 ex. paid $51.10.