The Turf Program had a nice result in the 4th race at Saratoga today, a $40K claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #12 Boss of All at 6-1 with a total win probability of 22.42%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2. Hence, Boss of All was a substantial overlay, who projected strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 38.3% and 34.2% along with having the highest win percentage in the field at 25.1%. This was a case of serious mispricing by the pool, where the class in the field in Boss of All not only was not getting odds to match her adjusted win percentage (3-1), she was being discounted at 6-1 even though she projected 2-1 strength in both E1 and E2 in a 5 1/2 f turf race. In the race, Boss of All stalked from off the pace and then gathered momentum around the far turn before accelerating down the stretch to win by three lengths. Boss of All paid $14.60 for the win. This race again shows the value of the Handicap Wizard and its calculations in identifying an undervalued favorite specific to the surface and distance.

The Turf Program had the winner of the Arlington Million at Colonial Downs today with its first selection of #4 Nations Pride at 1-1. This is exactly where the horse’s fair value was according to the program in having a total win probability of 49.16% and theoretical odds of 1-1.

The Turf Program had the exacta order correct with its first two selections in the $500K Secretariat Stakes at Colonial Down in the 9th. Those selections were #9 Trikari at 6-1 and #1 Brilliant Berti at 3-5. The theoretical odds assigned to the horses by the program were 9-5 and 2-1 based on total win probabilities of 34.57% and 30.36%. Trikari took the lead coming out of the far turn to finish first while Brilliant Perti rallied late to take second. The $2 exa. paid $9.

The Turf Program had a stellar result in the 5th race at Gulfstream today, a $16K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. The first selection was #1 Kizzy at 12-1, who had a total winning probability of 25.51%, translating into theoretical odds of 3-1. The horse projected second in final speed with a 34.6% win estimate while having the third strongest win percentage at 18.6%. It worth nothing that he was in COMP with a value of 34.5% (2-1 equivalent strength in odds), indicating strength in the projections at the component level. In the race, Kizzy went wire to wire uncontested while the third selection, #7, Musical Romance finished 2nd. Kizzy paid $26.00 and the $1 exacta paid $47.80.

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The program had some good results at Saratoga on Sunday, including in the one stakes races in the 9th—the G3 $200K Adriondack Stakes at 6 1/2 f on the dirt for two year old fillies. The first selection was #9 The Queens MG at 5-2 with a total win probability of 23.25%, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. The horse came wide around the far turn and then accelerated down the stretch to win impressively by eight lengths, defeating the favorite #2 Italian Soiree at 8-5, who finished second.

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And in one of the best races this handicapper has seen in a long time, the program also had a successful result in the 3rd race, a $25K claiming race at a 1 1/8 mi. for three year olds, with its first selection of #8 Bossmakinbossmoves at 7-2, who defeated the favorite #6 Colloquy at 1-1 in a spectacular comeback. After having a bad start, Colloquy rallied and passed Bossmakinbossmoves and the rest of the leaders coming out of the far turn only to be caught by a re-rallying Bossmakinbossmoves at the wire.

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