Tomorrow at Monmouth Park is the $1 mil. Haskell Stakes. It is run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race has a field of eight and features Belmont Stakes winner, #1 Dornoch, Belmont Stakes runner-up, #7 Mindframe, and Florida Derby Winner, Fierceness. The program is favoring #7 Mindframe with a total win probability of 29.17%, translating to theoretical odds of about 5-2. Mindframe projects first in final speed with a win estimate of 57.3% while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 4.76%. Second is #1 Dornoch with a total win probability of 23.86%, converting to theoretical odds of near 3-1. Dornoch projects second in final speed with a 33.6% win estimate while having higher risk than Mindframe with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.5%. Third is #5 Fierceness with a total win probability of 22.31%, which translates to theoretical odds of 7-2. In spite of the horse being erratic, Fierceness has the highest win percentage at 30.6% due to his wins in the Florida Derby and the BC Juvenile. Fierceness projects first in LP with a win estimate of 88.3% and has a decent COMP value of 37.4% (2-1 odds equivalent). In the final analysis, the program ranks Mindframe a little higher than Dornoch in win probability because of Mindframe’s higher projection in final speed, which is due to the horse being more consistent with his final speed figures at a higher level, whereas Dornoch has shown more variability in his final speed figures. Dornoch had the better trip in the Belmont Stakes along the rail while Mindframe showed himself to be a little green in his third start by veering off line down the stretch. If Mindframe can tighten up his run down the stretch in this race, he should be in a good position to win over Dornoch who statistically is the lesser horse. Whether Fierceness will show up in this race is any one’s guess. In his last race in the Kentucky Derby, he was a non factor, finishing 15th and twenty-four lengths back. His 5-2 odds on the M/L comes all from his win percentage and not his projections. The Handicap Wizard puts Fierceness lower at 7-2 for not projecting in final speed at all because of his disastrous trip in the Kentucky Derby.

The program had the winner with its first selection in the 5th a Saratoga, a $50K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds. #3 Squints at 9-2 was the first selection with a total win probability of 32.85%, translating to theoretical odds of about 2-1. Squints projected first in final speed with a 41.4% win estimate along with having the highest COMP at 55.4% and third highest WP at 17.55%. In the race, Squints with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard came from behind horses in the one paths and made a move to the outside around the far turn before accelerating down the stretch and beating the favorite #7 Iridescent at 6-5 at the wire.

The Turf Program had the tri-fecta order correct with its first three selections in the one graded stakes race at Saratoga today, the $150K New York Stallion Series Stakes in the 4th, which was run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. The three selections were #5 The Big Torpedo at 1/2, #2 Courtly Banker at 6-1 and #4 Fidelightcayeut.

In the finale at Parx today in the 10th, a $5K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds, the program had the order of the exacta with its first two selections but in reverse order. Both horses went off at long odds, with the winner, #8 Angry Man having odds of 9-1, and the place horse, #9 Jacohare having odds of 7-1. Angry Man projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 38.9% while Jacohare projected second with 30.7%. This was the order of finish. Jacohare was the higher selection in the program because of his 12.3% win percentage versus 2.3% for Angry Man. The $1 exacta, 8-9, paid $92.60. In some iterations of the program (meaning when you hit the calculate button again), the selection order of the exacta comes up correct with 8-9 on top.

Both the Grey and Turf programs had good results yesterday at Saratoga and Gulfstream. In the 9th race at Saratoga yesterday, a $62.5K optional claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf, the Turf Program revealed some interesting data with the #1 horse, Tidal Wave, who was in post four. As the third selection with theoretical odds of 8-1, Tidal Forces projected strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 41.7% and 44.4%. The horse also had a COMP of 27.8%, indicating that the horse projected with almost 2-1 strength on a component level in the simulation. The program revealed strength in the horse on a pure data level that was not observable in relating his final speed or win percentage data to the other horses. With that value, Tidal Wave was not a candidate for win but a strong candidate for place as the horse with the second strongest COMP in the field. In the race, Tidal Wave with Javier Castellano aboard made a nice move to the outside around the far turn to give himself running room and then accelerated down the stretch into second place before the wire, edging out the favorite, #8 Irish Aces at 1-1, who finished 3rd. Tidal Forces paid $19.80 for the place. The race illustrates how good things can happen when having faith in the program’s calculations.