Today at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana is another Kentucky Derby prep race in the $1 mil. Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features Lecomte Winner and Risen Star Stakes runner-up, #12 Track Phantom, Rebel Stakes runner-up, #8 Common Defense, and Smarty Jones Winner, #5 Catching Freedom. The program is favoring #6 Common Defense with a total win probability of 24.11% (6-1 on the M/L), translating to theoretical odds of 3-1. #6 Common Defense projects first in final speed with a 37.5% win estimate along with having the highest win percentage at 20.2%. The second selection is Track Phantom at 3-1 on the M/L with a 18.43% total win probability (4-1 theoretical odds), who projects second in final speed with a 28.3% win estimate. Third is #4 Agate Road with a win probability of 11.10%, equating to theoretical odds of 8-1, which is exactly where the horse is on the M/L. The race appears to be between Common Defense and Track Phantom, but #7 Honor Marie should not be ignored with the highest LP win estimate of 31.8%, who might be best suited for the 1 3/16 mi. distance. Catching Freedom is also worth considering for finishing right behind Track Phantom in the Risen Star in February. The selections are #6 Common Defense, #12 Track Phantom, #4 Agate Road and #7 Honor Marie. To see the image in full resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i’ in the bottom right-hand corner. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.

The Grey program had a nice result in the 5th race at Gulfstream, a $35K maiden race at 1 mi. off the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. The first selection was #8 Mobay Princess with a total win probability of 27.77% (5-2 equivalent theoretical odds) versus odds of 11-1. The second selection was #4 Sizzle with a 22% total win probability (7-2 equivalent) versus odds of 7-2. In the race, Mobay Princess led much of the way before she was overtaken down the stretch by Sizzle, thanks to a strong late kick (100% LP value). The $1 exacta paid $41.60. Even though there was not a lot of data to go off, Mobay Princess was still greatly mispriced, going off at 11-1 with a 5-2 theoretical value. The horse projected 1st in final speed with a 37.2% winning estimate in the simulation (8-5 equivalent) and was tied for having the second high win percentage at 19.5% (4-1 equivalent). The race shows the value of having an accurate handicapping program like Pro-Handicap Wizard that identified Mobay Princess as a strong horse in the field despite having high odds of 11-1.

The program had a good result today in the 2nd race at Tampa, a $12.5K claiming race at 6.5F on the dirt for three-year-olds. The programs first two selections were #4 Smart Joker at 3-1 with a total winning probability of 20.52% (7-2 equivalent odds) at and #6 Final Verdict at 5-1 with a 19.45% winning probability (4-1 equivalent odds). The order of finish was reversed, with Final Verdict winning by a head over Smart Joker. The $1 exacta paid $37.20.

Among the non-maiden races on dirt yesterday at Gulfstream, the program had winners with its first selection in 3 out of the 5 races (3rd, 9th and 10th), including in the one graded stakes race in the $100K Hutchinson Stakes in the 3rd. The program also had the place horse with its second selection in 6th with #2 Moonrise Drive at 34-1 compared to 5-1 theoretical odds.

Race 3

Race 10

Race 11

Race 6

We are pleased to offer a product upgrade in PHW 4.3 Grey. For the first time the program displays the theoretical odds of the horses as converted from the win probabilities. The theoretical odds are fractional and shown in their own column next to Total Win Probability (TOP) and in the Total Win Probability chart next to the horses’ names on the bottom-left. This addition to PHW’s calculations allows easy comparisons of the theoretical odds to the live odds so that the user will be able to spot overlays and underlays in no time. Below are the results of the program from the 4th race at Gulfstream on Saturday, a $100,000 Handicap race run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year olds and up, in which the program had the winner with its first selection in #10 Exact Estimate. At odds of less than 5-2, the horse was an underlay compared to its theoretical odds of 7-2, which can be seen in Column T. The program is available on the Purchase Page under Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.3 Grey. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for full-size image in the center.