The program had an excellent result in the 6th today at Gulfstream, a $16K claiming race run a 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt four four-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #1 Goodbetterbest with a total win probability of 33.35% (2-1) equivalent versus odds of 8-1, making it a heavy overlay. The horse projected second in final speed with a 41.6% win estimate (along with low risk) and had a win percentage of 18.2% (about 4-1 equivalent). Additionally, Goodbetterbest had a 60.8% COMP value (4-5 equivalent), signaling significant strength in the horse’s components in the aggregate compared to those of the other horses. In the race, Goodbetterbest led for most of the way and went on to win easily by three lengths. The race illustrates how patience pays off in waiting for the right setups in races with the odds in one’s favor.

In the 7th race, a $16K claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for four-year-olds and up, the program had the winner with its first selection, #7 Frank’s Art, at 7-2. The horse had a total win probability of 36.84% (9-5 equivalent) along with having the highest final speed estimate of 43.3% (6-5 equivalent) and highest win percentage at 37.5%. The horse’s COMP value was also strong at 55.9%. Frank’s Art went wire to wire in the win, holding off a late challenge by #4 Gilded Age at 5-1.

The program had an excellent result in the Tampa Bay Derby, having the top three finishers with its first three selections, though the order of the first two was reversed. The model’s second selection, #5, Domestic Product, came in first while its 1st selection, #7 No More Time, came in second. The third selection, #9 Grand Mo the First, came in third. Tampa Bay Downs experienced a tote delay following the running of the Florida Oaks in the 10th due to an tote outage on the East Coast. The tote delay prevented the odds of the horses from being shown during the race. Wagers could not be placed.

The program had a nice exacta result in the 5th at Gulfstream today, a $50,000 optional claiming race for three-year olds, with its first two selections of #1 Crystal Quest at 7-2 (5-2 theoretical odds) and #7 Private Thoughts at 5-1 (4-1 theoretical odds). Not that the selections were ahead of the live odds favorite, #6 Marceau, at 2-1. The $1 exacta paid $29.10.

If the result at race 1 at Tampa today with the second selection could not be topped, the result in race 2 at Gulfstream was equally thrilling with the program’s first selection, #2 Seminole Chief, winning at 17-1. It was a $75K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi off the turf for three-year olds. Seminole Chief had a 19.07% total win probability, equating to theoretical odds of 4-1, making the horse a substantial overlay. Though the horse had not done well in its previous race, it still was the class in the field with the highest win percentage at 19.1% (4-1 equivalent) and had the highest win estimates in E1 and E2 of 54.6% and 59.8%. Seminole Chief led for much of the way and went on the win by a length. The program nearly had the exacta, with #1 Beyond Stokes, its second selection, coming in third.

In the first race at Tampa, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/6 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years old and up, there was an amazing result with the program’s second choice of Krabi wiring the field at 37-1. Krabi had a total win probability of 15.86%, equating to theoretical odds of 5-1. Besides having the highest E1 and E2 win estimates of 67.7% and 59.5%, Krabi had a 46% COMP value (almost 1-1 equivalent). There were some things not to like about the horse such as its recent form and high Coefficient of Variance of 17.37%, signalling above average risk, but regardless the horse was heavily discounted, even above odds it should have gotten for its win percentage alone, offering huge value. Krabi paid an incredible $77.80 for the win. Again, this race shows how trusting the calculations in the model can pay off handsomely when the odds heavily favor the statistics.