Today at Tampa Bay is the G3 $400K Tampa Bay Derby, a Kentucky Derby prep race worth 50 pts. for the winner. It is run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features Sam F. Davis Winner, #7 No More Time, and Holy Bull runner-up, #5 Domestic Product. The program has No More Time as its first selection with a total win probability of 31.80%, translating to theoretical odds of about 2-1 compared to the M/L of 5-2. No More Time projects first in final speed with a 51.8% win estimate and has the highest win percentage at 18.1%. Second is Domestic Product with a total win probability of 17.86% (9-2 equivalent) versus the M/L of 3-1. Domestic Project projects second in final speed with a 27.7% win estimate (about 3-1) but first in LP at 48.2% after recording a 108 LP in the Holy Bull. Third is #9 Grand Mo the First with a 17.09% win probability (9-2 equivalent) versus the M-L of 10-1. In the final analysis, the first two selections in No More Time and Domestic Product largely follow the M/L ordering and pricing as the top two horses. Grand Mo the First has had two third place finishes in stakes races in the Swale and Zuma Beach and will need to step it up against this field. Of the green runners, #4 Good Money is drawing some interest at 6-1 on the M/L as a son of Good Magic, with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding and Chad Brown as the trainer. He is lightly raced with a win in his only start in a $53K maiden race at 7f on the dirt at Tampa in late January. To see the image in full resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i’ in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the line for full-size image in the center.

Since handicapping is not always about taking first selections, one can see in the 7th race at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 5.5f on the dirt four four-year-olds, how the program can be used as an effective handicapping tool with others horses besides the first selection. #8 Amor Lejano was the third selection with an 18.25% win probability, translating to theoretical odds of 9-2. This compares to 9-2 on the M/L and 8-1 in the live odds. What was attractive about Amor Lejano was his 33.1% final speed win estimate in the simulation against the field, equating to 2-1 strength in terms of odds while the horse’s risk was low with a Coefficient of Variance of 3.27%. That meant the SPD estimate was very reliable. The horse also had a 37.5% COMP value (9-5 strength), which reinforced the SPD estimate. So, for a horse that was projecting with 2-1 strength in the simulation according to two metrics, it was offered at 8-1. Win Percentage needs to be considered as well, which was not great at 8.2% but still passable. The decision comes down to whether Amor Lejano speed projections could be believed; they could because of the horse’s low risk. The race shows the importance of paying attention to the component estimates in addition to total win probability. This includes the LP value, which was decisive in the race for Amor Lejano with a high value of 41.6%, for which it received a FIT2 checkmark.

The program had another successful result at Tampa today, this time in a 7th, a $32K maiden claiming race run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf. The Turf program had #1 Officer Derrick as its first selection with a total win probability of 31.91% (2-1 odds). Even though Officer Derrick did not project as well with the Grey version, which takes into account both dirt and turf data, the horse projected 1st with the Turf version, which processes only turf data. As it turns out, Officer Derrick had the highest final speed figure on turf of all the horses in the field. Besides having a high total win probability, Officer Derrick had a 39.7% final speed estimate (about 7-5 equivalent) and 100% values in E1, E2 and COMP. Only with the Turf version would you have detected the horse was so strong on turf against this field, showing its value in complementing the Grey version as a handicapping tool. Even though there was not a lot of data, the calculations were still correct in pointing to strength with Officer Derrick.

Ahead of the Tampa Bay Derby tomorrow, the program had a good result with its first selection in the 2nd at Tampa today, a $8K claiming race at 1m 40y on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years old and up. The first selection was #2 Perfectly Golden with a total winning probability of 36.08%, converting to theoretical odds of 9-5 versus 5-2 on the M/L. The horse went off at exactly 9-5, showing there is some statistical intelligence to the pool after all. Perfectly Golden led most of the way before facing a mighty challenge from #1 Anotherdaygoneby, who was a long shot at 14-1 (16-1 in the model). Perfectly Golden held off the challenger just long enough to get the win. With such a close finish, the race illustrates how much horse racing involves chance when victory almost turns into defeat.

In the third, the program had another winner with its first selection in #4 Golden Juan at 3-1, who had theoretical odds of 2-1. Note the horse had a 95.6% COMP value, which is unheard of. This was an $8K claiming race for four-year-olds at 1m 40y on the dirt. Golden Juan was dominant in the win, leading most of the way and winning by three lengths over #3 Doinittherightway. To see the images in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i’ in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.

The program had a nice result today in the 5th at Gulfstream, a $35K optional claiming race at 1 mi. off the turf for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #2 Tatanka with a total winning probability of 24.20% (3-1 odds) versus 5-1 on the M/L and 4-1 in live odds. Tatanka projected 2nd in final speed with a 27.7% win estimate but first in E1 and E2 at 58.0% and 56.2%. The horse also had COMP value of 32.3% (2-1 equivalent). There were two favorites in the race in #3 Space Launch at 9/5 with a 7.43% total win probability and #10 Tartufo at 5/2 with a 19.77% win probability. In the race, Tatanka broke to an early lead and held on to beat Space Launch, with #10 Tartufo finishing third.