The program had a number of good results today at Tampa, including having winners with its first selection in the first two races. In the first race, a $16K claiming race at 1m 40y for four-year-olds, the program had #4 Star Kanoo as it first selection with a total win probability of 29.60%, translating into odds of roughly 2-1. This was very close to where the horse went off at 5-2 even though it was 6-1 on the M/L. Besides having very high E1 and E2 win estimates of 80.6% and 93.1%, Star Kanoo had a high COMP estimate of 58%, which is the win probability from adding the results of the simulation of E1, E2 and LP together. The COMP value signaled that the horse was strong with its components (4-5 equivalent) in the simulation compared to the other horses. This is how the race played out with Star Kanoo leading early and then running away from the competition down the stretch to get the win.

We are pleased to offer a product upgrade in PHW 4.3 Grey. For the first time the program displays the theoretical odds of the horses as converted from the win probabilities. The theoretical odds are fractional and shown in their own column next to Total Win Probability (TOP) and in the Total Win Probability chart next to the horses’ names on the bottom-left. This addition to PHW’s calculations allows easy comparisons of the theoretical odds to the live odds so that the user will be able to spot overlays and underlays in no time. Below are the results of the program from the 4th race at Gulfstream on Saturday, a $100,000 Handicap race run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year olds and up, in which the program had the winner with its first selection in #10 Exact Estimate. At odds of less than 5-2, the horse was an underlay compared to its theoretical odds of 7-2, which can be seen in Column T. The program is available on the Purchase Page under Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.3 Grey. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for full-size image in the center.

Today is the $400K G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features graded stakes winners #5 Dornoch, who won the Remsen at Aqueduct in December, #7 Locked, who won the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in Nov., and #7 Frankie’s Empire, who won the Swale Stakes at Gulftream in February. The program is favoring #8 Locked as its first selection with a total win probability of 38.45%, equating to theoretical odds of 8-5 versus its M/L of 5/2. Locked projects second in final speed with a 46% win estimate and is in the class in the race with a win percentage adjusted for stakes of 42.4%. The second selection is #1 Speak Easy with a total win probability of 20.39% (7-2 equivalent) compared to its M/L of 9/2. Speak Easy projects first in final speed, albeit with speed figures for only one race, with a 54% win estimate. Speak Easy broke its maiden in late January in a $89K maiden race and has not raced since. The third selection is the M/L favorite #5 Dornoch with a total win probability of 17.89%. Dornoch is the speed in the race with E1 and E2 win estimates of 75.4% and 42.4% and has the second highest win percentage at 15.3%. In the final analysis, this is a difficult race to handicap because of unseasoned horses and lack of data. While projecting first, Locked is coming off the long layoff after having last run in early Nov. Speak Easy, on the other hand, is a green horse, in having only broken its maiden in late January. Dornoch does not project well in terms of final speed but does project a lot of early speed and should be on the pace. Being the class of the field, Locked should be able to deal with the caliber of horses in the race as a son of Gun Runner, but there are legit challengers in Speak Easy, Dornoch and even #3 Victory Avenue, who recorded a 100 SPD in his first maiden race at Gulfstream at the end of January, in which he came in 2nd. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled i in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down slightly and click on the full-size link in the center.

The program once again had the winner in the 10th race at Oaklawn, the $600K G3 Razorback Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #5 Octane at 5-1 with a total win probability of 19.79% (about 4-1 equivalent). The favorite was #8 Magic Tap at 2-1 with a total win probability of only 7.6%. The horse was the class in the race, though, with a win percentage of 18.1% and came in second. Octane paid $13 for the win. The race illustrates the importance of the simulation results for SPD, with Octane not only having a high SPD estimate but also low risk with a a CV of 3.93%. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for the full-size image in the center.

The program had the winner with its first selection of #1 Run Classic in the $125K Gulfstream Park Sprint at Gulfstream today in race 11. Run Classic at 4-1 had a total win probability of 27.89% (about 5-2 equivalent) and the highest SPD win estimate of 46.8% (about 1-1 equivalent) along a LP win estimate of 90.3%. As projected, the horse showed great late kick to run down the field and win in exciting fashion. Run Classic paid $10.20 for the win. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the link for the full-size image in the center.