Tomorrow at the G3 $250k Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, run at 1 1/8 mile on the dirt for three-year olds. The Handicap Wizard Grey Program is projecting #5 Seminole Chief as its first selection with a total win probability of 26.65% (3-1 fair value), who is at 10-1 on the M/L. It is surprising that Seminole Chief would have such a high M/L considering it is the class in the field with a winning percentage of 24.2% (3-1 fair value). However, Seminole Chief has a somewhat high Coefficient of Variance on its final speed figures of 10.24%. Interestingly, the horse has the high COMP figure of 48.4% indicating that the horse has (2-1) strength on a component level in the aggregate according to the simulation. Second is #4 El Grande O with a total win probability of 18.3% versus 5/2 on the M/L, making the horse an underlay. The horse has the highest final speed estimate according to the simulation at 31.7% (2-1 equivalent) but is third in win percentage at 17.3%. The third selection is #8 Uncle Heavy with a 17.8% total win probability (4-1 equivalent) versus 10-1 on the M/L. Uncle Heavy has the second highest final speed estimate at 27.3% (3-1 fair value) along with a win percentage of 18.2% (4-1 equivalent). Uncle Heavy is coming off a win after getting the upset in a $200K graded stakes race at Parx in December in the mud. Of the three top selections, Uncle Heavy is showing the most value as a 4-1 projected horse. Even the folks at DRF in their preview of the Withers yesterday said Uncle Heavy has the talent to win the Withers. What’s mystifying in this race is the M/L favorite of #3 Lightline at 8/5 on the M/L when the horse does not have the data in the simulation or the win percentage to support that low M/L. The horse has two second place finishes in $80K and $100K claiming races at Oaklawn and Keeneland in its last two races. In the final analysis, both Seminole Chief and Uncle Charlie are showing value while the M/L favorite in Lightline and #4 El Grande O are projecting as overlays.

Here are the projections for the G3 $250K Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream tomorrow, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The first selection is #7 Fierceness, the winner of the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita as a two-year-old. The horse dominates in all metrics and has a total win probability of 61.01% percent, close to its M/L price of 3/5. On a final speed basis, the horse projects at a 62.3% win estimate, translating again very close to 3/5 on the M/L. That M/L doesn’t come out of thin air but captures the statistical projections of this race well for the favorite.

Here are the projections for the Pegasus World Cup Invitational today at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The first selection is #7 National Treasure with a 22.00% total winning probability, who is the favorite on the M/L at 8/5. He is an underlay at the price (fair value is more towards 3-1). Second is #12 Skippylongstocking with a 17.7% win probability. At 8-1 on the M/L the horse offers value compared to its fair value of around 5-1. Third is #4 Hoist the Gold with a 15.5% total win probability compared to its M/L of 12-1. At 12-1 the horse would be at a significant discount in view of its SPD estimate of 30% and relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of only 6.72%. Reinforcing their appeal, these three horses also have the highest COMP values at 31%, 24.7% and 21.21% respectively.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection of #3 Otello in the $150K Mucho Macho Man Stakes today at Gulfstream. The Mucho Macho Man is an early Kentucky Derby prep race. With a total win probability of 25.65%, the horse was an underlay at 8-5 (fair value closer to 3-1).

Happy New Year to all! Remember to create a new folder for 2024 and track folders inside it. Otherwise, you may encounter problems trying to copy and paste 2024 race files into 2023 track folders.