The Handicapwizard had some excellent results yesterday at both Tampa and Gulfstream. In the 9th at Tampa, a $16K handicap at 1 mi. on the turf, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection in #7 Cannon’s Roar at 17-1. Its total win probability was 16.28%, translating to a fair value of 6-1. The horse had a high COMP at 54.8%, suggesting strength at the component level in the aggregate, as well as the highest win percentage in the field at 13.6%. On the basis of its win percentage alone, Cannon’s Roar was a 7-1 horse but went off at 17-1. This is exactly the kind of setup a handicapper should be looking for in a race in having the first selection be an overlay.

At Gulfstream the Grey Program had the winner in the $125K Rampart Stakes in the 5th with #3 Maryquitecontrary at 2-1.

In the G3 Harland’s Holiday in the 10th, the program had the exacta order reversed with its top two selections of #3 Grand Aspen at 7-2 and #6 O’Connor at 10-1. Just before the wire O’Connor surged ahead of Grand Aspen , who had been leading down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $93.80.

The Grey program had a good result in the 3rd at Tampa Bay today, a $5K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares, having the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #6 Musical Cat at 3-1 and #3 Shall Return at 5-2. The $2 exacta paid #36.80.

The program also had the winner in the 6th with #1 Gotts Got It at 2-1.

The Handicapwizard had an excellent result today in the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, having the exacta order correct with its top two selections, #11 Hoist the Gold at 8-1 and #3 Senor Buscador at 7-2. The implied probability of getting the exacta order correct was only 3%.

There were a couple of instructive races in the Wednesday opener today at Tampa Bay Downs. In the 9th race, a $16K claiming race for three-year-olds at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf, the program and odds favorite was #8 Justintimeforwine at 5-2 . The horse had a total probability of 25.74%, making it a slight underlay. The interesting horse in this race, however, was the third selection, #7 Fly Nighty, with a total probability of 18.2% (about 4-1 equivalent) compared to final odds of 7-1. Fly Nightly projected first in the simulation in final speed with a 30.8% win estimate (about 2-1 equivalent) while having a fairly low Coefficient of Variance of 5.42%. As has been said many times in previous posts, taking into the consideration the risk or variability of the horse is very important. Because of Fly Nightly’s low CV, its projection in the simulation is more reliable. Along with projecting first in final speed, the horse had the second highest win percentage at 17.3% (little more than 4-1 equivalent). So on the basis of both its final speed projection and win percentage, Fly Nightly had value at anything above 4-1, and it went off 7-1. In the race, the horse surged around the far turn and overtook Justintimeforwine down the stretch. This is precisely how the Handicap Wizard can be used in finding solid horses with value who have realistic chances of winning. In Fly Nightly’s case, this was his fifth straight win, showing that pool pricing is not always efficient. The results of the race were generated using the Turf Program. To see the main image in full resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right. Then click on full size link in the bottom center.

Here are the projections for today’s Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita. It is run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt and is for three-year-olds and up. The Handicap Wizard has #6 Saudi Crown as its first selection with a total win probability of 17.41% versus the M/L of 12-1. Saudi Crown won the Pennsylvania Derby in his most recent start in Sept., recording a Bris. final speed figure of 108. The Travers Stakes winner, #1 Arcangelo, is the second selection with a total probability 15.33%. Archangelo comes in undefeated in his last five starts. The third selection is #12 Arabian Knight with a total win probability of 14.43%. Arabian Knight won the Pacific Classic in Sept. Dreamlike looks like an interesting longshot in this race after putting up a 118 LP in the Penn Derby in Sept.