Today at Del Mar is the $1 mil. G1 Pacific Classic, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The race features #1 Geaux Rocket Ride, winner of the Haskel in July, #9 Arabian Knight, who came in 3rd in the Haskell after winning the Southwest Stakes in Jan., and #3 Stilleto Boy, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap in March. The program is favoring Arabian Knight with a total win probability of 18.68% versus 3-1 on the M/L. Arabian Knight has a tough task in this race after being beaten by Geaux Rocket Ride already, but the former comes in with the highest win percentage overall at 23.5% (about 3-1 fair value). The second selection is Stilleto Boy, who projects first in final speed at 31.2%, although his risk is elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.37%. Having a total win probability of 16.55%, the horse has value at 8-1 on the M/L. Third is Slow Down Andy with a total win probability of 15.22%. Interestingly, Slow Down Andy’s COMP is 31.3%, which would make his fair value about 5-2 on that basis. Fourth is #8 Senor Buscador, who projects 2nd in final speed at 23.5% (4-1 fair value versus M/L of 8-1) but has a win percentage of just 4.5%. Geaux Rocket Ride is the fifth selection with a 12.52% total win probability, who won his last two starts and has won three out of four starts total. The horse’s final speed estimate of only 2.2% undercuts his chances, though on a win percentage basis (19.8%) his fair value is 4-1. It’s worth nothing that Stilleto Boy is back on his home turf in California after having been in the Midwest for his last two races, where he placed 6th in the Stephen Foster and 3rd in the Oaklawn Handicap (lost by a nose). This should be a bettor’s race considering there is no clear favorite.

While Forte failed as the favorite in the Travers, the 4.2 Grey program had the winner, Archangelo, and place finisher, Disarm, as its second and third selections. The $1 exacta paid $36.25. Besides this result, the program had the correct order of the tri-fecta with its top three selections in the G1 Balerina in the 10th with #6 Echo Zulu, #7 Goodnight Olive and #2 Matareya.

On Saturday is the $1.25 G1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features #1 Forte, winner of the Jim Dandy Stakes in his last start, #2 Arcangelo, winner of the Belmont Stakes, and #4 Mage, winner of the Kentucky Derby. The model is favoring #1 Forte, who projects best in terms of final speed with a 41.0% win estimate and has the 2^nd highest in win percentage at 23.08%. Forte’s total win probability is 30.86%, which would make him an underlay at 7-5 on the M/L. The second selection is #2 Arcangelo, who is just below Forte in final speed at 39.2% and has a win percentage of 13.8%. His total win probability of 21.05% makes Arcangelo, too, an underlay at 5/2. The third selection is #6 Disarm with a total win probability of 16.40%, which would make his fair value 6-1 compared to 8-1 on the money line. Fourth is #4 Mage with a 14.94% total win probability. Mage has the highest win percentage in the field at 29.3% because of his Kentucky Derby win but projects poorly against the field with final speed of just 0.4%. It may be that the horse has already peaked after coming in second and third in his last two races. The final selections are #1 Forte, #2 Arcangelo, #6 Disarm and # 4 Mage.  

Here is a truly excellent result by the PHW Grey program today at Monmouth in the 6th, a $12.5K claiming race on the dirt for three or four-year olds. The first two selections were #8 Dreaming of Smarty with a total win probability of 22.36% and #3 Kabod with a win probability of 21.85%. Kabod was being heavily discounted with final odds of 19-1 (versus approx. 4-1 fair value according to the program) while Dreaming of Smarty was about fairly valued at 4-1. With Kabod’s high COMP value of 62.3% (fair value less than 1-1), the horse took the early lead and held on to win by a length, fighting off a tough challenge by Dreaming of Smarty down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $219.40. Wow!

Here are the projection for tomorrow’s $1 mil. G1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth. The race is for three-year olds at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt. It looks to be a duel between #4 Mage’s class and #5 Tapit Trice’s projected speed, who is coming into the race in top form after posting a field best 109 final speed figure in his last race in the Belmont Stakes. #8 Arabian Knight should not be ignored as the 3rd choice, who has the second best final speed estimate and win percentage at 23% and 21.6% and the highest COMP at 57.9%, suggesting strength at the component level in comparison to the other horses. However, the horse last raced 175 days ago and has only had two starts, albeit, both wins, including winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn at the end of January. At 3-1 on the M/L, Mage is fairly valued while Tapit Trice is slightly over valued at the same odds. Arabian Knight could be well undervalued, at 5-2, if the 57.9% COMP value is believable. We saw something similar with National Treasure in the Preakness with the strong COMP, who pulled off the upset against Mage.