The program had another good result today in the 3rd at Aqueduct, a $10K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds. Interestingly, there were four FIT2 horses in this race, all contenders according to their individual profiles. The first selection was #2 Summer Bourbon with a 21.23% win probability, who was the favorite in the race at 2-1, making him an overlay. The horse had not shown good form recently with an 8th place finish in his last. The second selection and best choice to win was #7 Earned Success at 4-1. Earned Success projected 1st according to final speed with a 52.0% win estimate and also had the highest COMP at a whopping 64.9%. On the basis of both of those metrics, his fair value was 1-1 or less. #3 Flash Drive was the third selection with a 17.03% win probability and was the horse that indicated early speed according to his E1 and E2 projections of 85.0% and 36.0%. #1 Vicar’s Legend was the 4th choice with a 10.31% win probability. The low win probability was mostly due to the horse having a WP of 3.5%, but the horse had an extremely high LP estimate of 85.1%, signaling the horse was going to be rallying down the stretch. This was how the race played out, with Flash Drive breaking best and leading until the quarter pole, when Earned Success overtook him. Earned Success maintained the lead until the wire, holding off a late challenge by Vicar’s Legend who came flying.
The program had a good result today in the 5th at Hawthorne, a $6.25K maiden claiming race at 1m70y on the dirt for three-year olds. The three contenders in the race were #3 Be Inspiration at 1-1. who had the highest win probability at 27.14%, thanks to a winning SPD estimate of 42.1%, #7 Dirty Bad Boy at 5-2, who had the highest winning percentage at 52.8% and #5 Squirrely Mike at 7-1, who rated 2nd in terms of final speed at 31.9% estimate but 1st in COMP at 53.5%. When deciding to look at COMP, it’s always a good idea to compare it to the risk of the horse or Coefficient of Variation, which was only 6.45% for Squirrely Mike, meaning the COMP estimate was fairly reliable. Squirrely Mike was at a substantial discount to both SPD and COMP and had a positive expected ROI of 57%, while Be Inspiration and Dirty Bad Boy were both clear overlays. Holding true to his speed projections, Squirrely Mike ran a big race, going wire to wire, holding off #2 Off to the Beach at 12-1, for the win. This is another example of how you can identify value and the winner with PHW’s performance stats. Squirrely Mike was a 7-1 horse but had 2-1 fair value according to his SPD estimate and 1-1 fair value according to COMP!
Three-year-old and Kentucky Derby winner, Authentic at 4-1, was the winner of the $6 mil. Breeders Cup Classic at Keeneland on Saturday. The horse had the 2nd highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, after Maximum Security at 13.4% and was third highest according to COMP at 23.5%. Two of the three highest COMP horses in Authentic and Improbable at 7-2 finished first and second, while the mentioned long-shot in the preview, Global Campaign at 25-1, finished third. Taking a $0.50 tri-fecta box with the four horses that rated highest according to final speed in the simulation, which included Global Campaign, would have given you a winning ticket that paid $167.95 for a $12 wager. Finishing 5th, it appears that Maximum Security is no longer the horse he once was. He nor his trainer, Baffert, had any excuses in this race not to have done better.
Today at Keeneland is the $6 mil. Breeders Cup Classic, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The race features a grand ten-horse field, including Kentucky Derby winner, #9 Authentic at 6-1 on the M/L, Belmont Stakes, Travers and Florida Derby winner, #1 Tiz the Law at 3-1, the 2019 Kentucky Derby winner before the disqualification, #10 Maximum Security at 7-2, and Awesome Again and Whitney Stakes winner, #8 Improbable at 5-2, among others. The race is a classic contest between speed and winning percentage, with Tiz the Law projecting best with a 37.9% winning SPD estimate and Maximum Security having the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 47.7%. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Maximum Security in this contest with a total win probability of 30.43%, making him an underlay compared to his 7-2 M/L odds. The horse has won eleven out of thirteen career starts, but lost most recently to Improbable in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita in late September. The question with Maximum Security is whether his 2nd place performance in the Awesome Again was an anomaly or whether the horse has begun to decline. Judging by comments by his trainer, Bob Baffert, on Oct. 29, “Max” has benefited from the six-week break and could not look any better after his breeze on that date. He also said that Maximum Security tired after a brisk pace in his last race, which saw the horse record E1 and E2 figures of 109 and 123. Whatever Maximum Security’s form is coming into the race, it is clear that the horse has the most will to win of any of the horses in the field and should be a factor, at least in terms of pace, on Saturday, where he projects best in terms of E1 and E2 with estimates of 57.3% and 46.5%. He also has the highest COMP estimate in the field at 32.5%, which was the winning indicator in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Next is #2 Tiz the Law as the second selection with a total win probability of 18.46%, who has lost only one race as a three-year-old and that was in the Kentucky Derby in September, when he was bested by Authentic. Tiz the Law did show declining form in that race as his third race off the layoff, when he had less than a month’s rest after winning the Travers at Saratoga in August while putting up a career best final speed figure of 115. Like with Maximum Security, Tiz the Law should benefit from an extended rest since his last race, which is two months in his case. Most recently, he worked 5f at Keeneland on Oct. 31 in 0:59. The third selection is #8 Improbable with a total win probability of 14.28%, who beat his stable mate, Maximum Security, in the Awesome Again stakes by four lengths, finishing under a hand-ride. While not projecting as well as Tiz the Law in terms of final speed, Improbable projects better in E1, E2 and LP and has the second highest COMP estimate after Maximum Security at 31.8%. #9 Authentic is the fourth choice with a total win probability of 13.62%, who has the second highest winning percentage, thanks to his win in the Kentucky Derby, at 13.4%. Selections: Maximum Security, Tiz the Law, Improbable and Authentic. As a long shot, Global Campaign at 20-1 on the M/L has value compared to his final speed estimate of 8.4%, where he ranks 4th. Global Campaign is a winner of his last two—the Woodward and the Monmouth Cup. Click on the image below and then on the link in the lower right hand corner to see in high resolution.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 