In keeping with the goal of smarter handicapping, we made a change to the FIT2 equation, which was part of the major additions in the PHW 4.1 Update. The FIT2 Equation is the 2nd Win Fitness Test, which we have made more selective by adding logical rules based on the horses’ meeting superior pre-defined limits in their metrics. The metrics are SPD and WP together, E1 and E2 together, LP and COMP. Besides setting universal performance limits, the user can modify the qualifiers by sprint or route distances. The result is a filter that assigns checks to horses with only the highest statistical values, whose data dominance often point to actual winning performances by the horses.

To show an example, here are the results of the 8th race from Gulfstream yesterday, Thurs., Aug 6. The program’s first and second selections (according to Total Win Probability) were #8 Thissmytime at 2-1 and #1 Bimini at 8-5. These were also the horses that received checks in the FIT2 category, but for different reasons. #8 Thissmytime was the most winning horse in the field (highest WP at 29.7%) and had the second highest SPD value, while #1 Bimini had the highest LP estimate at 68.1%, which is an exceptionally high value pointing to significant strength in the final stretch. In this particular race, Thissmytime won, proving her class. Besides the program correctly predicting the order of the exacta with TOP, it also highlighted in FIT2 the two strongest contenders from their statistical superiority in certain categories which “fit” a formula for winning.     

There was a good result today with an undervalued favorite in the Turf Program in race 4 at Saratoga, a $25K claiming race for three-year olds on the inner turf. With a total win probability of 30%, #12 Nutzforboltz was an underlay at 9-1 as a first selection, but had to contend with the odds favorite, #2 Catch a Cab at 1-1, who was the second selection  with 25.23% win probability. Playing it conservatively, Nutzforboltz could have been selected to place and would still have been an underlay. In the race, Nutzforboltz trailed the field in 2nd to last position through the back stretch. #2 Catch a Cab and #11 Good Ole Boy ran third and fourth around the far turn, finding running room on outside.  Nutzforboltz saved ground on the inside around the far turn before shooting through a seam in the middle of the track upon hitting the stretch. Down the stretch, Nutzforboltz then surged past Catch a Cab on the inside to come up for second, while Catch a Cab faded to fourth. Good Ole Boy ran on home for first. Nutzforboltz paid $9.70 to place and the $2 exacta (11-12), which the program had among its top three selections, paid $124.

In the 7th race at Parx, a $12.5K claiming race on the turf for three-year fillies and mares and up, the PHW Turf program had a winner with its 2nd selection, #6 Theodosia at 9-2, with a 39.8% win probability, even though the horse had not run on turf in its last five races. The program’s second selection, #3 Janelle Dreams, came in second at 3-1. Theodosia had the second highest SPD at 35.3% and the highest COMP at 94.3%, which was off the charts. Theodosia paid $11.00 while the $2 exacta (6-1) paid $44.60. The race shows again the advantage of having a pure turf perspective when handicapping. It also shows the fallibility of the lowest-odds favorite without statistical data to support.

The program saw an exacta result in race 7 today at Parx, a $40K maiden race for three-year-olds and up at 1 mi. on the dirt with its top selections of #2 Jerusalem Gates at 7-5 with a 41.7% win probability and #1 Mr. Thrifty at 1-1 with a 32.17% win probability. Both of the horses were dominant in final SPD (48.1% vs. 38.5%) and in COMP (52.5% and 47.1%). The $2 exacta paid $10.60.

Race 5 at Parx saw a nice result today with #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 in a big upset. The two favorites in the race according to both the Program and the live odds were #5 Mr. Classical at 3-1 and #2 Gray Gary at 4-5, who had total win probabilities of 26.38% and 21.46%. Only Mr. Classical was at fair value, while Gray Gary was an overlay. According to the ROI analysis, there were three horses that had positive expected value, including #6 Awe Mun at 20-1 with +151% ROI, #8 King’s Gold at 41-1 with +111% ROI and #5 Surfer Boy George at 19-1 with +61% ROI. The one horse with a reasonable chance of winning among these was #6 Awe Run as a fourth selection with a 12% win probability. Though the horse had only a 2.5% historical win percentage, adjusted for stakes, Awe Mun simulated very well against the horses in the COMP category with 54% value, whose fair value on that basis would have been 1-1. Again, the COMP is a measure of the simulated results of E1, E2 and LP added together, which reflects the cumulative strength of his component metrics against the other horses. As it turns out, Awe Mun ran a big race to finish first, paying $42. Fortunately, the COMP estimate held up in this race, which showed big value for the horse as did the ROI analysis.