It was a day of surprises at Santa Anita on Saturday in two of the graded stakes races. Even though he had won the race nine times before, HOF trainer, Bob Baffert did not have the winning horse in the Santa Anita Derby in the 8th with #7 Authenticate, even at 1-2 odds, while a 92-1 horse in #2 Grinning Tiger won the $75K Crystal Water Stakes in the 7th on the turf.

Although neither horse finished in the money, #3, Shooters Shoot, at 20-1 and #4, Anneau d’Or, at 16-1 both ran competitively in the Santa Anita Derby. They took the early lead together and continued to lead until the quarter pole, when the favorite, #7 Authenticate, pushed forward. These horses would have finished in the tri-fecta had the race been 1/16 mi. shorter, but it was ultimately, #6 Honor A.P. at 5-2, who won the race on a late surge, thanks to his strong late speed which was highlighted in the preview.

Where the fireworks really went off was in the 7th race in the Crystal Water Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf, with #2 Grinning Tiger upsetting massively at 91-1. Although the horse had a low winning percentage, which explained its high odds, he had a 10% final speed estimate according to the simulation and E1 and E2 win estimates of 84.7% and 47.9%. With those numbers, it was assured that the horse would be leading in the early part of the race and could build a formidable lead. This is what happened in the race, with Grinning Tiger taking the lead out of the gate and maintaining it all the way until the quarter pole, when his momentum took over to carry him to the finish line. Even though the horse was 91-1, he had a 17.66% win probability as a third selection and had an astounding 1,543% expected Return on Investment, one of the highest values ever. This is exactly the type of horse the philosophy of the Handicap Wizard emphasizes, one that is a significant underlay but also has a reasonable chance of winning, which Grinning Tiger did according to his speed data and total win probability of 18%. The results were computed using the Turf Program.

Race 7: Crystal Water Stakes

Race 8: Santa Anita Derby Odds and Results

 

Here are the projections for today’s $400K G1 Santa Anita Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The program gives the edge to #3 Shooters Shoot with a 25.30% win probability followed by #4 Anneau D’or at 21.36% and #7 Authentic at 19.53%. Although coming off a maiden win and another win in an $80K OC in April, this will be a big step up in stakes for Shooters Shoot, who while having speed on the front-end lacks the Winning Percentage of the other horses. The horse rated best in the simulation according to final speed at 30% but with a fairly high Coefficient of Variation of 11%. The 3rd selection in Authentic was second highest according to SPD at 23.2% but with a Coefficient of Variation ratio of just 4%, pointing to lower risk. Judging by the Shooters Shoot’s COMP estimate of 58.2%, the horse has a good chance of running away with this one if he can get enough of an early lead. #6 Honor A.P. is a late threat with an LP estimate of 29.5%, who came in second to Authentic by two lengths in the San Felilpe in April. The wild card in this race is Anneau D’or, who recorded a field high final speed figure of 102 in a second place finish at Santa Anita last November in the BC Juvenile, indicating the horse has the most potential speed in the field. However, Anneau D’or will have to do much better than his performance in the Arkansas Derby in May, when he came in 5th by 9th lengths. The trainer, Wright, is only a 5% graded stakes winner. 

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Every so often there is an anomaly in the wagering system, where a horse is grossly mispriced relative to its speed characteristics and record. That was the case in the 7th race at Tampa today, a $30K claiming race at 7f for three-year old fillies and mares. #7 Cloud Charmer was being ignored by the market at 30-1, even though the horse had recorded a field high final speed figure of 92 two races back. The program accounted for his competitive history in assigning a 18.3% winning final speed estimate from the simulation, which put his fair value at 5-1, much less than his odds of 30-1. His Winning Percentage of 12% suggested a fair value of 8-1. In the race, Cloud Charmer broke best from the gate but it was the 6-5 favorite, #2 Proposition, that led through the opening quarter, which went off at 22.81. On the back stretch, Cloud Charmer fell back four lengths before rallying around the far turn, cutting Proposition’s lead to only two by the quarter pole. Propelled by momentum, Cloud Charmer put away his opponent inside the sixteenth in the upset. The horse paid $62.20. This handicapper did follow the program and had Cloud Charmer to place.

The program had a nice result today in the 6th at Gulfstream, an $8K claiming race at 6.5f on the dirt for four-year olds. #3 Joe Di Baggio at 7-2 won as the top selection over the favorite, #8 Karen’s Cove, at 1-1. Joe Di Baggio had advantages in SPD and LP with winning estimates of 38.6% and 56.7% against a Coefficient of Variation of 8%, meaning the horse had about average risk. The high absolute value of Joe Di Baggio’s LP estimate mattered greatly in the race, with the horse making an outside bid at the top of the stretch before surging late to catch #6 Tip Sheet and Karen’s Coven, who came in 3rd. Joe Di Baggio paid $9.20 for the win. This is an example of a race going exactly according to projections. Joe Di Baggio’s strength in speed data turned was true.

It was a good day for the Handicap Wizard at Churchill, with the program having winners with its top two selections in the two premier races, the $150K Matt Winn Stakes in the 10th with #10 Maxfield at 6-5 and the $100K War Chant Stakes in the 11th with #9 Smooth Like a Straight at 5-1. Smooth Like a Straight had a big advantage in E1 and E2 according to the simulation with win estimates of 55.4% and 59.1%, while its total win probability was 17.35%. In the race, Smooth Like a Straight went to the early lead along with #3 Island Commish at 13-1. It stayed that way on the back stretch and into the far turn, before Smooth Like a Straight broke away at the top of the stretch and held on for the win by two lengths over #12 Pixelate. Smooth Like A Straight paid $12.20 in this open contest.

Race 11: War Chant Results

 

Race 10: Matt Winn Results