Here are the probability projections for today’s $150K Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. #10 Maxfield is the top selection with a total win probability of 29.50% and a final speed estimate of 38.5%. He is also the class of the field with a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 37.1% and is the morning line favorite at 5-2. #5 Flap Jack had a blow out performance in his last race with E1 and E2 figures of 110 and 111 but an LP of only 11, so his E1 and E2 estimates are distorted as a result. #2 Pneumatic and #6 NY Traffic are likely better plays for place and show. #1 Mystic Guide is intriguing as a long shot at 20-1 on the M/L, considering his 37.5% LP estimate, which is higher than Maxfields 31.2%. Click on the image and then the link in the lower right to see the image in full resolution. 

Here is a good result today at Churchill in the 9th race, with the Turf Program hitting the exacta cold, despite #5 Front the Fed being heavily favored at 6-5 . The Handicap Wizard had Mr. Dumas first with a 19.43% win probability, followed by Ritz A.P second at 16.83% and Front the Fed third at 14.76%. #9 Mr. Dumas projected best in term of final speed with a 34.4% win estimate and #6 Ritz A.P second at 25.9%. That is how the order went (9,6). This race is a good example of how well the program can perform when the risk of the horses is lower. For this $80K optional claiming race, the Coefficient of Variance was just 6%, which is fairly low. The $2 exacta paid $54.80.

The program had a good result in the one stakes race at Gulfstream in race 8, the $75K Powder Break Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf’/off turf for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The favorite was #3 Bella Ciao at 2-1, who did not rate strong according to the program but did win her last race at the $50K stakes level in driving fashion. Two horses that did rate well by final speed were #2 Jakarta with a 26.7% SPD estimate and #11 W W Fitzy with a 36.2% estimate. Jakarta was at a big discount at 11-1 odds, when her fair value was 3-1 by final speed projections. The horse was not risky either given its CV of 8%. In the race, Jakarta broke quickest from the gate and went wire-to-wire, while #3 Bella Ciao surged late from behind to get second. The $2 exacta 2,3 paid $77.60.

In race 6 at Gulfstream yesterday, a $35K maiden claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up, #8 Youcantcatchcurlin was a horse that was overlooked at 30-1 but offered significant value in terms of speed. Though the horse had no money finishes in two races, he rated third best according to the final speed simulation with a 10.8% win estimate. He fared even better according to E1, E2 and LP individually with estimates of 28.2%, 15.4% and 41.5%, not to mention the horse showing good progression in his last race and being a son of Curlin! This all pointed to a horse that was at a steep discount at 30-1, whose fair value was below 9-1 and probably closer to 5-1. In the race, #4 Swing West broke fastest from the gate and was followed closely by one of the favorites, #5, Fried Rice King at 2-1, who was the top selection according to the program. Following a fast opening quarter of 22.75, Youcantcatchcurlin ran some nine lengths back before launching a bid at the half mile pole that propelled him to the lead at the top stretch, where he dug in all the way to the wire, holding off the other favorite, #6 Tons of Gold at 9-5, and resulting in a dead heat. Youcantcatchcurlin paid $22.40 for the win tie and $17.20 for the place.

There was a nice result in race 5 at Tampa today, a $10K claiming race at 1 mi on the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. According to the HW Turf Program, the horse with highest win probability was #7 Miss Lotus Flower at 11-1. Shortly before post the horse had been 30-1! The horse’s 50% win probability was due to a single race on the turf ten races back, in which the horse recorded a top-in-the-field final speed figure of 76. The race had two favorites in #1 Beachtreasuregirl at 3-1 and #8 Wildcat Merry at 7-2. In the race, the #6 horse, Premiere Justice, who was a first-time turf starter at 9-2, took the lead by the half mile pole, followed closely by #8 Wildcat Merry. #1 Beachtreasure tracked in forth place seven lengths back. By the top of the stretch, Premiere Justice took clear command of first, while Miss Lotus rallied from the outside only to come up a length short in the end. Miss Lotus Flower lower paid $11.60 for the place. The race goes to show how precise the Turf Program is, that with just one set of speed figures for one race it was able to gauge Miss Lotus Flower’s historical strength on the turf surface correctly. On both dirt and turf, Premiere Justice had the second highest winning percentage at 15.7%, with strength in the E1 and E2 estimates. Here it would have prudent to look at the results of both the Grey and Turf models to get the full picture of competitiveness of the horses overall and specifically on turf.