The Handicap Wizard had a nice result in the 6th race at Tampa on Saturday, a $10K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares four-years old and up. The top three selections were #9 Elusive Rider at 17-1, #8 I Dream of Lois at 7-2 and #6 Anditsafact at 12-1. Their win probabilities were all close at 19.02%, 17.69% and 18.61%. The favorite according to the final odds was #4 Colonels Daughter at 8-5, whom the program had as a fifth selection with a 9.92% win probability. In the race, Elusive Rider surged down the stretch to win, while #8 Dream of Lois finished second. Elusive Ruler paid $37, while the $2 exacta box (6,8,9) paid $187.40.

Here were the results of the program for the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby on Saturday. It had the exactas with its top two selections in both races, first with #1 Charlatan and #11 Basin in the first division and next with #5 Nadal and #4 King Guillermo in the second division. The win probabilities between Nadal and King Guillermo were very close, with less than two percentage points separating the two horses. In the race, King Guillermo came within a length of Nadal down the stretch, but Nadal pulled away in the final 1/16 mi. to win by three lengths.

Division 1

Division 2

There was an excellent opportunity in race 8 at Will Rodgers today to take advantage of long odds on the #2 horse, Fox Run, to hit a big exacta. #8 Spendaholic was the favorite at 1-1 and top selection with a win probability of 23.45%. Spendaholic had the highest final speed estimate at 36.7% as well as the highest E1 and E2 estimate at 53.6% and 47.7%. Using this horse in an exacta box, the next horse to take according to final speed was #2 Foxrun at 25.7%, who at 17-1 odds was priced at a steep discount (3-1 FV by final speed). This was surprising considering that the horse was coming into the race in better form than Spendaholic. In the race, Foxrun dug in and beat Spendaholic down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $144.60.

In the HW strategy book, found under the HW Book link above, there is a chapter on advanced strategies, in which it talks about how one can be successful focusing on individual metrics, instead of solely on the TOP (Total Win Probability) category. At Tampa yesterday there were two races that illustrate this strategy. In race 2, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds, the #5 horse, Itsgottabemyway, had an exceptionally high LP estimate of 72.9%, suggesting the horse would dominate the other horses over the final quarter. That is what happened in the race, with Itsgottabemyway winning easily down the stretch. The horse paid $14.20.

In the 8th race, a $20K optional claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year-olds, the favorite was #8 Summer Assault, who at 3-5 odds had a win probability of 34.59%, thanks to a 100% estimate in the final speed category (SPD). The second selection was #3 Sea Lover at 10-1 odds with a 25.37% win probability. Here the betting public overbet Summer Assault because of his final speed, while failing to take into account Sea Lover’s dominate early speed advantage, as shown in its E1 and E2 estimates of 82.2% and 100.0%. The horse did not disappoint, winning down the stretch while paying $21.40. The Grey version was used for this race, because of the limited turf data and limited data overall.

Here is a nice result from the early going at Tampa in the 3rd, a $6.5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year old fillies and mares. On a muddy track, the program had #6 Dad’s Yankees as the first selection with a 19.8% total win probability followed by #8 Northern with 18.66% probability. Dad’s Yankees was a substantial underlay at 11-1 while Northern was priced at about fair value at 4-1. Dad’s Yankees was attractive in the race because of her early speed, as shown in the E1 and E2 estimates of 92.5% and 23.2%, which suited this sprint distance. In the race, Dad’s Yankees won the break and  led the race until the final 1/16 mi., when the tiring horse was caught by Northern. Dad’s Yankees paid $10.20 for the place and the $2 Exacta 8-6 paid $76.20.

In the 4th, a $5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for four-year olds filies and mares, the program had the winner with its first selection in #3 Burke’s Babe at 5-1, who was about fairly priced relative to a 17.56% win probability. The horse had strong E1 and E2 estimates of 50.9% and 62.9%, which again were well suited to the 6f sprint distance. In a twelve horse field, Burke’s Babe went wire-to-wire, paying $12.40 for the win.