Here are the results of the $350K G2 Azeri Stakes for four-year-old fillies and mares and the $1 mil. G2 Rebel Stakes for three-year-olds at Oaklawn yesterday. The program had the winner of the Azeri with its top selection in Serengetti Empress at 9-5 versus a win probability of 41.02%. In the Rebel, the program had it as a close contest between #3 Basin at 9-2, #1 Nadal at 4-5 and #4 Silver Prospector at 4-1, all with win probabilities of around 22%. Nadal won, while Basin finished 3rd. In terms of valuation, Nadal was a good choice to win because of relatively strong speed metrics, particularly E1, E2 and COMP, and low risk but was arguably overbet at 4-5. On the replay, it appeared #2 Excession cut-off both #4 Silver Prospector and #6 Three Technique coming out of the far turn, but the Stewards did nothing about it, not even review the race.
The program did very well at Parx today, having winners with first selections in five out of nine non-maiden races. Here are the results. The 4th race came down to a photo between #5 Eclipsed Moon and #6 Mickey T, with Mickey T winning. Those were the two horses in the exacta, which paid $39.40.
Today features two Kentucky Derby prep races for three-year olds, namely the $300k G3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the $400K G2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Downs. The Gotham Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the dirt, appears to be a wide open contest according to the program, with no horse receiving a win probability higher than 20%. The top selection is Attachment Rate at 9/2 on the M/L versus a 18.93% win probability, who, despite being a maiden, has the highest final speed estimate at 26.3% after recording a field-best 102 final speed figure in his last race. He also has the top LP estimate in the field at 38.8%. Next is Montaux Traffic at 6-1 on the M/L compared to a 17.66% win probability, who comes into the race with two wins in three starts, including a stakes win in the Jimmy Winfield at 7f at Aqueduct on Feb. 8. The third selection is Mischievous Alex at 3-1 on the M/L versus a 15.4% win probability, who won the Swale Stakes at 7f at Gulfstream on Feb. 1 and the Parx Juvenile at 7f at Parx on Nov. 5.
The Tampa Bay Derby has two proven horses in Chance It at 5-2 on the M/L and Sole Violate at 2-1 on the M/L, who will be battling it out. Chance It was the winner of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at 1 mi. at Gulfstream on Jan. 4, while Sole Violante won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. at Tampa Bay on Feb. 8. The speed advantage goes to Chance It with a 43.4% final speed estimate, thanks to three triple-digit final speed figures in his last three races. However, Sole Violate, is not far behind at 24.3% final speed estimate after posting final speed figures of 102 and 100 in his last two races. The M/L appears to be favoring Sole Violate because of late speed strength, showing a 35.2% LP estimate, which is favorable to the 1 1/16 mi. distance. The surprise of the race may be Unrighteous, the son of Violence, who with a final speed estimate of 15.8% is cheap at 20-1 on the M/L.
The Handicap Wizard finished on a strong note today at Gulfstream, having winners with its first selections in the last three races, including the $300K G2 Gulfstream Mile on dirt, the $200K G2 Mac Diamida Stakes on turf and the $400K G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on dirt. The program had the winners Mr. Freeze with a a 29.19% win probability at 5-2, Zulu Alpha with a 33.98% win probability at 1-1 and Ete Indien with a 27.99% win probability at 7-2. Ete Indien became the first selection after the scratch of #12 Chance It. Ete Indien beat the favorite #5 Dennis’ Moment at 6-5.
Here are the projections for today’s $400K Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The results largely follow the order of the horses that rate best by speed, with #12 Chance It as the first selection at 7-2 on the M/L, following by #8 Ete Indien secondat 8-1 and #6 As Seen On TV third at 9-2. The M/L favorite, however, is #5 Dennis Moment at 2-1, who had a bullet workout on this track on Feb. 23 of 0:48 for 4f. The horse’s preferred status is surprising, considering that his speed estimates are low compared to the field and he does not have a stellar Winning Percentage at only 8.6%. Dennis Moment won the G3 Iroquis at 1 1/16 mi. at Churchill on Sept. 14, but finished a distance 8th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in November at Santa Anita. He has not run again since then. Horses that offer value are Ete Indien because of his favorable speed estimates of 31.9% for SPD, 48.5% for E1, 28.9% for E2, 18.3% for LP and 31.7% for COMP. By speed, he appears to have a fair value around 5-2 or better. Another is Gear Jockey at 20-1 on the M/L, whose Winning Percentage is second highest at 15.7%, which would put him at 6-1 or 7-1 fair value. As a long shot, #7 Country Grammer at 15-1 has the strongest LP estimate at 38.1% and has shown good progression in terms of final speed figures from 72 in his first race to 94 in his last.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 