In race 4 at Gulfstream, the $110K Glass Slipper stakes, run at 1 mi. on the dirt for filies and mares, you would have done well by keying on SPD or the COMP metrics with #5 Cuddle Kitten at 8-5 and #2 Liza Star at 5-1, who ranked #1 and #2 in those categories. In the race, the horses broke well from the gate and ran together until around the turn, before Liza Star took the lead down the stretch and never looked back. Liza Star paid $12.40 for the win.
In the first graded stakes races at Aqueduct today, the $150K Winter Memories Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies, the Handicap Wizard had the winner with its top selection in #1 Feel Glorious (GB) at 8-5. The program had assigned the horse a total winning probability of 32.22%, which is close to where the she went off. In the race, Feel Glorious trailed the field while saving ground in the one path until the far turn, when she began to make her move. The horse had a burst of speed down the stretch, thanks to a 41.5% LP estimate, to overtake #11 Sorrentino Lemon to win by two lengths. Feel Glorious paid $5.40 for the win.
Today we have the G1 Cigar Mile and Kentucky Derby prep race, the G3 Remsen, for two-year olds at Aqueduct. The Cigar Mile features Kentucky Derby winner before the DQ, Maximum Security, who since May won the Haskell Invitational and the Bold Ruler as well as Spun to Run, winner of his last two, including the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile in November. Here are the Handicap Wizard’s projections for both races. Clicking on the images and then the link on the bottom right will bring them up full-size.
Cigar Mile
Remsen
The Handicap Wizard saw a good result at Aqueduct today right off the bat with #12 Lookbothways in a $40K maiden race at 6f off the turf for fillies and mares. At final odds of 4-1 the program assigned Lookbothways a 38.22% total winning probability, who had dominating SPD, E1 and E2 estimates of 48.9%, 59.6% and 52.7%, plus a 30.8% winning percentage. In the race, #6 Kathy’s Cause and Lookbothways ran side-by-side out of the gate before the latter took charge down the stretch to win by three lengths. Lookbothways paid $10.40 for the win.
There was a textbook handicapping race in the 3rd at Tampa Bay today, a $13K maiden race for two-year olds at 1M on the turf. #8 Maspero was the second favorite according to the odds at 3-1; however, the program had him valued much higher than that with a total winning probability of 60.53%. The horse had crushing numbers across all speed categories with winning estimates of 26.5% in SPD, 70.3% in E1, 59.7% in E2, 49.8% in LP and 84.3% in COMP. In the race, Maspero came from four lengths behind with a six mide move around the far turn before catching the leader, #5 Wickididit, halfway down the stretch. Maspero paid $8.40 for the win. The race is evidence again of how it pays in the long-run to wait for the right setups of races in terms of odds. Maspero was a horse that one could be confident in because of his strong stats, and he won as expected at a price two times his fair value.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 