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Racing fans will be watching three prep races today in the Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby for clues about who will be running at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. The way the Handicap Wizard’s projections will be calculated today for these races is using exponential smoothing, a feature which will be incorporated into the program’s next version, version 4.0, to be released in the near future. Exponential smoothing puts greater weight on the most recent speed figures in calculating means and standard deviations for the simulation. The value of the approach can be seen in its winning speed estimates from last week’s Florida Derby, which saw Maximum Security go-to-wire and maiden, Bodexpress, finish second. The improbable outcome resulted in the $1 exacta paying $257. The winning speed estimates using exponential smoothing had both horses in its top four as the third and fourth selections. Why the horses did not appear higher in the combined winning probabilities is because neither horse had won or even competed in a stakes race before the Florida Derby, causing their winning percentages, adjusted for stakes, to be lower.

Florida Derby 

Wood Memorial

Blue Grass Stakes

Santa Anita Derby

 

The next race on the Derby trail is this Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, run at 1 1/8 miles on dirt for three-year olds. The contest features three stakes winners in Code of Honor, Harvey Wallbanger and Garter and Tie. However, that is not fully indicative of the talent in this race, which includes the highly touted, Hidden Scroll, from the Bill Mott barn, who wowed in winning his maiden race at Gulfstream at $60K stakes by 14 lengths at the end of January, when he earned a Brisnet final speed figure of 102. Code of Honor won the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at 1 1/16mi. at Gulfstream in early March, holding off a surging Bourbon War at the wire. Harvey Wallbanger defied long odds of 25-1 to win the G2 Holy Bull at 1 1/16 mi. at Gulfstream in February, benefiting from an excellent rail trip that allowed him to overtake Everfast down the stretch, who finished second. Garter and Tie boasts the highest final speed figure in the field at 103, which he received in winning the $75K Smooth Air Stakes at 1 mi. at Gulfstream in December. However, he has had less success in his last two starts, with a 3^rd place finish in the $100K Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream in January and a 6^th place finish in the Holy Bull.

After changing the weights to 0.15% for E2, to 0.15% for LP and to 0% for E1 to account for the longer distance in this race, the Handicap Wizard is calling the race close between Hidden Scroll and Garter and Tie as favorites. However, because the program calculates its winning speed estimates from simulation that does not factor in the regression both horses have had in their last starts, the combined probabilities of 25% of these horses should be viewed with caution. In the case of Hidden Scroll, the horse is seeing a jockey change to Javier Castellano from Joel Rosario, who arguably ran Hidden Scroll too hard in the opening fractions of the Fountain of Youth, causing the horse to come up short in the end. Castellano won the Florida Derby in 2014 with Constitution. The Handicap Wizard’s third selection, Code of Honor, looks to be a solid choice following his win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He is the class in the race in terms of money finishes and has the lowest risk in the race. Still, he will need to be in top form, if he is going to fend off Bourbon War in the final eighth, who has the strongest LP estimate in the field. The Handicap Wizard rates Bourbon War fourth, but he appears to be the best suited for the 1 1/8 mi. distance of this race.

Another horse that will be charging late is Harvey Wallbanger, who has shown good progression in his five races, posting his best final (95), E2 (100)and LP speed figures (100) in his last start, according to Brisnet. Therefore, the model might be underestimating his potential in this race by rating him as a 6^th selection. His winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 15.7% as second highest is likely more indicative of the relative strength of this horse. In an interview with America’s Best Racing, co-owner, Wayne Cutler, praised his horse as one having heart and knowing where the finish line is, while running to the competition. It’s also worth noting that the horse worked 4 furlongs on March 23. In 47.1, finishing 1^st of 99 horses.

The last horse worth mentioning is lightly run, Maximum Security, who comes into the race undefeated in three starts at Gulfstream, albeit against allowance competition. It will be the first time he stretches out to two turns under rider, Luis Saez, who is second only to Irad Ortiz Jr. in the Gulfstream jockey standings this year.

The Handicap Wizard had three of the top four finishers correct in the Louisiana Derby with its top four selections. Its first selection, War of Will, suffered a hing leg injury coming out of the gate and was not a factor in the race. The horse that won, By My Standards, defied long odds to beat the Pletcher trained, Spinoff, at the wire.

To put By My Standards performance in perspective mathematically, his mean final speed figure before the Louisiana Derby was 84.75 in four starts with a standard deviation of 4.27. In the Louisiana Derby he put up a 102 figure, which was 4.04 standard deviations above the mean. The equivalent probability is 0.0027% or 1 in 37,417.

If we go off his last fig of 90, the jump to a 102 final speed figure is still 2.81 standard deviations higher. The probability of that happening from 90 as a mean using the same standard deviation is 0.2477% or 1 in 404.

 

The road to the Kentucky Derby continues this Saturday, March 23rd, through the Fairgrounds with the $1 million Louisiana Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. This contest features Mark Casse trained sensation, War of Will, who under the reins of Tyler Gaffalione has won his last three races, including the G2 Risen Star Stakes in February and the G3 LeComte stakes in January. Hoping to challenge War of Will are Risen Star Stakes runner-up, Country House, who finished two-and-a-half lengths behind War of Will in that race as well as the late running Sueno, who placed behind Supersteed in the Southwest and behind Gunmetal Gray in the Sham Stakes. Other notable contenders include Limonite, who was third in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill back in November, and Pletcher Trained, Spinoff, who looks to be the speed in this race.

The Handicap Wizard is favoring War of Will to win, whom it rates highest both in speed and winning percentage with estimates of 34.3% and 20.4%. Its combined winning percentage of 25% puts its fair value around 3-1. Next is Country House, who while having low estimates for E1 and E2, has the highest LP estimate at 51%,. This may bode well for him because of the longer distance of this race. Spinoff has comparably good E1 and E2 estimates to War of Will, but it is unclear given his inexperience at two turns whether he has the stamina to go the entire 1 1/8 mi. Sueno could be the surprise in the race, considering how he closed on Supersteed in the Southwest after being boxed in around the far turn. His final speed figure of 93 underestimates his true speed, which is higher. Look for Sueno to get a good price, with 7-1 being his fair value.

Continuing with the theme of identifying and realizing value, race 2 at Gulfstream today, a $25K claiming race run at 6f for three-year-old fillies on the dirt, presented an opportunity with the #5 horse, Noncents. The horse was being discounted by the market with 13-1 odds, yet upon closer inspection of her E1 and E2 estimates in simulation, 51.1% and 60%, she clearly had the most speed in the race. The two favorites, #4 Midnight Miracle at 8-5 and #8 Stronger Kat at 3-1 did not compare in these categories. Even with a combined winning probability of 20% according to the model, putting her fair value at 4-1, Noncents was getting more than three times her value in terms of odds and therefore, deserved heavy betting consideration. The race unfolded with #3 Mertz taking an early lead, who was second in the E1 category, while Noncents shadowed her on her outside. Mertz maintained the lead through the half-mile point and around the far turn, before Noncents took command down the stretch to win by one half length over #1 Elissas Secret, who also ran well. Noncents paid $29.00 for the win. By having confidence in the speed estimates of the Handicap Wizard, which offers precision data through its 1000X simulation engine, one is able to take advantage of these mis-pricings for profit when they appear.