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The difference in whether one is profitable in handicapping horse racing often comes down to identifying and realizing value. But what constitutes value can change from race to race based on the different dynamics of each horse. For one race, one might be able to find value in the speed estimate of a horse relative to its odds, either in the final speed estimate or in the E1, E2 and LP components or in combination; in another race, it might be in the Winning Percentage (WP) calculation, which signifies a horse’s class strength relative to the field. Race 7 at Gulfstream today, a $25K claiming race for four-year olds an upward, was an example of where the WP calculation allowed value to be realized in the #4 horse, Face of Victory. A Pletcher horse, #5 Driven By Thunder, was the live odds favorite at 8-5, owing to a dominant final speed estimate of 40.4% and 49% and 67% estimates for E1 and E2. However, the distance of the race at 1 1/16 mi. on turf seemed a poor fit for Driven By Thunder, considering that it had no late speed with a 0% LP estimate. The horse was not a fair bet anyway with a negative expected ROI of 19% according to the model, making it imperative to look elsewhere. While not showing stellar speed, Face of Victory was comparably strong to Driven By Thunder in terms of winning percentage at 15.3% versus 17%, yet the horse was at long odds of 15-1. That meant the horse was being priced at more than a 50% discount according to the winning metric, representing significant value. The race saw Driven By Thunder and Face of Victory both bolting out of the gate and running side-by-side around the first turn, before Driven By Thunder took a short lead. After running the opening quarter in 22.40, Driven By Victory maintained the hot pace for the half mile, completing it in 45.60, while Face of Victory stalked two lengths back and #1 Flow Motion at 5-2 closed the gap to the leaders to a length and a half. Around the far turn, the three horses ran in tandem, before Face of Victory found an extra gear in a three-wide bid to overtake Driven By Thunder on his inside. With Driven By Thunder giving up the ghost after a grueling pace, Face of Victory charged ahead to the lead in the stretch, as Flow Motion continued to hound him on the outside. But Flow Motion could not get any closer than one length behind Face of Victory, who finished the 1 1/16 mi. in a fast time of 1:40:51. Face of Victory paid $32.20 for the win.

Sometimes the differences in strength between horses is razor thin, that only a computer with the help of sophisticated software can successfully pinpoint who’s best. That was true today in race 3 at GP, a $16K claiming race for four-year olds on upward over 7 1/2f on the turf. The Handicap Wizard rated Nileator at 7-2 as its top selection, albeit barely. Two other horses, namely, Rompin Red at 7-2 and Tipsy Kitten at 6-5 had comparable winning probabilities around 25%. In such situations, it often pays (quite literally) to defer to the speed estimate instead of winning percentage (WP) to decide what horse to play, because speed is the most significant explaining variable. Nileator with a winning speed estimate (SPD) of 37.6% looked then to be the best choice. This was how the race went, with Nileator taking the lead out of the gate and never looking back to win wire-to-wire. Nileator was also a fair bet, having a positive expected ROI of 11%.

According to the live odds, race 5 looked to be a contest between Teak and Big Possible with odds of 3-2 and 2-1, respectively. However, this $16K race for three-year olds and up was very short at only 5f on the turf. The data in the Handicap Wizard revealed that Teak was indeed the speed horse in the race but only as far as E1 with an estimate of 54.4%. He had nothing to show for E2 and only the 5th strongest LP rating. Another horse, Salambro at 11-1, had the 2nd highest E1 estimate behind Teak and the highest E2 estimate at 65.4%. No one else came close. Given the short distance, it could be deduced from that Salambro had precisely the right speed where it was needed to win at 5f. The race played out with Teak going to the early lead, while Salambro stalked from about 3 1/2 lengths back. Heading into the final stretch, Salambro turned on his speed in a five wide bid, overtaking three other horses inside him, to win by under a length. Salambro paid $24.20 for the win. The horse had a positive expected ROI of 94%, while the two favorites had negative expected ROIs.

On the day the latest version of the Handicap Wizard was released, the program had a good result in the sole stakes race at the Fair Grounds, a $75K race at 5.5f on the turf for fillies and mares four-years old an upward. Despite having odds of 11-1, the HW rated #2 Student Body as its top selection with a combined winning probability of 27%. Its speed estimate (SPD) was even higher at 36.6%. The horse also showed strong underneath figures, ranking 2nd behind #6 Oxford Comma at 2-1 in E1, 1st in E2 and toward the middle of the pack in LP. Student Body broke well from the gate and led all the way until the last 1/16 mi., before #7 La Dame Blanche at 4-1 (whom the track handicappers had favored) closed to challenge. In a tough duel, Student Body dug in to win by half a length over La Dame Blanche, paying $24.80. Student Body was also the top ROI pick, making it a nice setup indeed.

The latest version of the Handicap Wizard, 3.2, is now available. For the first time, the E1, E2 and LP data has been incorporated, along with SPD and WP, into the main algorithm. Version 3.2 also has a new look as seen below.

The Handicap Wizard correctly predicted the winner of the G2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds, run at 1 1/16 mi for three-year olds, with its top selection in War of Will. It nearly had the exacta as well, with its 3rd selection, Country House, coming in second.

It also predicted the winner of the G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes for three-year old fillies in the 11th race at the same distance with Serengeti Empress.