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At final odds of 5-2, five-year old, Accelerate, won the $6 million Breeder Cup Classic, giving trainer, John Stadler, his first win in a Breeders Cup race after forty-four tries.  It was the first Breeders Cup Classic victory for jockey, Joel Rosario. Accelerate held off late charging Gunnevera, who finished 5th in the same race last year, while 2018 Dubai World Cup winner, Thundersnow, came in third. The Handicap Wizard had Accelerate as its second selection after West Coast (with Collected being scratched), who succumbed to a hot pace of 22.63 for the first quarter mile and 46:46 for the half mile. The top three finishers in the race were among the top five selections in the model. From a forecasting standpoint, the results of the race were well predictable. Accelerate had the 2nd most speed in the race according to simulation with a 29.9% winning estimate. Gunnevera had arguably the most late speed in the field for the 1 1/4 mi distance, since Mind Your Biscuit’s late pace figures were mostly for sprinter routs (see LP metric below). Thundersnow had the second highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 17.32% coming in, second only to West Coast at 27.2%. Both Gunnevera and Thundersnow went off at big-odds, with Gunnevera paying $21.80 for the place and Thundersnow $8.00 for the show.

By contrast, the Brisnet Prime Power rankings predicted only one top-three finisher from its top-five, and that was Accelerate. It had McKinzie 2nd, who came in 12th and Catholic Boy 3rd, who finished 13th. The two other horses were West Coast and Mind Your Biscuits, which the Handicap Wizard also had in its top five.

 

 

 

All eyes today will be on race 11 at Churchill Downs this evening, the Breeders Cup Classic, featuring the best horses—three-year-old and up—from all over the world. They will be competing at 1 1/4 mi. on dirt for a $6 million dollar purse and boasting rights for horse-of-the-year. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Baffert trained West Coast based on high speed figures relative to the field and a stellar stakes record, including a 2nd place finish in the $16M Pegasus World Cup in January, when he lost to 2017 horse-of-the-year, Gun Runner, and another second place finish in the $10M Dubai World Cup in late March. Two other horses that are expected to contend are Accelerate, who also has early speed, and Mind Your Biscuits. Though regarded as an early presser, Mind Your Biscuits has the strongest late pace figures in the field. The program rates Collected high with a 11.25% win probability, but this mostly has to do with the horse’s 2017 campaign, in which he was dominant. Collected’s 2018 results have not been up to par compared to the horses above.

As a possible long-shot, there are reasons to like lightly raced Axelrod, in that he posted a career best 110 BRIS final figure his last-time out in the Pennsylvania Derby in September, only to come up a length short against prominent three-year old McKenzie out of the Baffert Barn. Axelrod has enough early speed to keep him near the pace, while showing the third best late-pace figures at 14.0% . Going by that metric alone would suggest that he is underpriced at 30-1 on the M/L. A breakdown of the speed figures by E1 and LP are visible in the Handicap Wizard’s soon-to-be released next version, previewed below for the first time. The TOP category signifies the combined results.

The Handicap Wizard had its mettle tested today at Belmont Park, which featured eight stakes races with purses of $150K and up. The program had four winners with first selections, including 2-1 Pat On the Back in the Empire Classic in the 9th (shown above), and another winner with a second selection in 5-1 Bankit in the $250K Sleepy Hollow in the 8th.

 

On the whole, the Handicap Wizard performed well on the Belmont card on Saturday by posting three winners, including Disco Partner in the $150K Belmont Turf Sprint and Complexity (in above photo) in the $500K Champaign Stakes for two-year olds. It picked the tri-fecta straight in the 4th race with Breaking the Rules, Classic Covey and Krewe Chief. In the 5th, 8th and 11th races, the HW’s second selection won. Of particular note was the 11th race, in which Saratoga won at 7-1 odds. The model’s first selection, Spa Treatment, came in second at 13-1. Only 0.50% separated the two in winning percentage in 23.55% versus 23.02% (see fourth row down). The $2 exacta paid $134.50. Among the eight non maiden races on the card, the HW had winners with 1st and 2nd selections in 6 out of 8. Dark Tricks won the first race at 37-1 and Have At It won the 9th at 11-1.

 

In keeping with Bob Baffert’s praise of him, McKinzie showed today that he is still one of the best three-year olds by winning the Pennsylvania Derby in no contest fashion. The top three horses in the model by winning estimate went off as the three live odds favorites, with McKinzie being the biggest underlay at 2-1, followed by Hofburg a close second at 5-2. Bravazo’s price was near fair value at 9-2. The final order was McKinzie 1st, Axelrod 2nd, Trigger Warning 3rd and Hofburg 4th.